Republicans, Democrats, and Trump. America’s New [3 Party] System.
We voted for change.
The upcoming brawl in the American Political System will be like no other in history. Trump’s own populist brand will not only have to face down the Democrat Party Establishment. But also hill republicans such as Rubio, McCain, and the most loathed man of Trump’s base other than Obama, the speaker of the house, Paul Ryan.
No one knows for sure how deep the divide will go, but it is obviously showing if you are paying attention. This populist divide was shown in both parties during the primary elections. Causing many then party leaders to question their real base, and real ideas and moods of their own party. The Neo-Centrists of both parties, whilst still some are in power, are becoming seemingly intentionally dethatched from the actual voters. Causing political outsiders like Sanders and Trump to abruptly arrive into national presidential politics.
The “new normal” is still yet to set in because we are still yet to feel what the new normal is in politics. People are still ceding from the election and it’s political meanings, and yet no one is really looking into the political map of the future.
The Republican Party is going to have a both good and bad setting coming in under Trump. But the Democrats may have it worse.
The bad for republicans, is that the fighting between Trump and Ryan’s hill republicans will not go unnoticed. However it will be usually be done behind closed doors, and away from the public scene. Therefore not causing an element of drama that we saw in the 2016 election. Yet we even saw in Trump’s thank you tour rally in Wisconsin, that a large amount of those present, began to vehemently boo and shoot down Paul Ryan who was in attendance. Wisconsin, which is Ryan’s home state.
The good luckily, is on the national level. The Republicans have already had their party revolution. It’s the Democrat Party that will have to go through a vigorous and almost crushing presidential primary in 2020. The democrat party has to now make the decision as to which way the party should go, and who to lead it. The Neo-Liberals of the party like Schumer, and Pelosi are still in charge. While those like Keith Ellison, who is very much further to the left, are attempting to run as the head of the Democrat National Committee. Such a change in the party’s course will be between three voting entities. Youth, Minorities, and moderate Blue Collar whites. The democrat establishment will be in absolute turmoil as it tries to perform a balancing act, and satisfy all of these voting blocks. Go to far to the left, and they risk loosing their moderate White voters and even a chunk of Catholic Hispanics. Try and stay centrist, and you lose enthusiasm among far left voters.
Just being anti-Trump in 2020 will not be enough to win. And if the Democrat party voters want a populist on the ticket, they will haft to break through the almost unbreakable establishment barrier of Super Delegates. Just as Trump himself said, “It’s a rigged system.”
Hill Republicans are beginning to fear their own base. (Finally)
Another uptick for Trump is that the Hill republicans realize for the sake of the party and their own seats, they must now work with Trump, and not come out against him. (Outside of the so called Russian hacking of John Podesta’s emails, and using Putin’s name as a synonym for Satan.) The republicans in the house and Senate have no reason to show any disagreement with Trump. Especially not after he cracked the “blue wall.”
So what will happen for sake of party unity? A great compromise.
The republican base wants two specific things from D.C. outside of tax-cuts and deregulation of businesses.
They are, a wall along the southern border, and immigration cuts to better drive up wages. In order for this to happen. Trump will haft to compromise on his promise of not touching Medicare, of Medicaid. In order to satisfy the base of the party while at least not publicly loathing against his own party establishment members.
Impacts on 2018 Midterms.
The good news for Trump is that Republicans have a good chance of picking up many seats in the senate for 2018. (So public feuds between Trump and Hill Republicans will be minimum). Even now, while only having a 52 seat majority in the senate. There are at least 6 Democrat Senators who hold office in states that voted heavily for Trump. They include Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, West Virginia, Indiana, and Ohio (Trump won OH by 9%).
Even more so, some Democrat Senators could be vulnerable in states such as Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and even Minnesota. (Trump lost MN by only 1.5%).
The democrats are vulnerable in 12 states, while the Republicans only have to worry about one seat in Nevada. But for republicans to achieve a 60 seat majority, they must have a seismic turnout the way Trump had in 2016. And that can only come if, truly, the economy bounces back in what may no longer be called it’s infamous and true name of the “Rust Belt.”
*A hopeful prelude to the future*