Thoughts on March 15’s Primaries
I, for one, am glad to see Marco Rubio drop out. Yes, I felt like he had a chance of winning a general election, but it wasn’t just that. Rubio was someone who I once believed was genuinely interested in solving our country’s problems, even if I greatly disagreed with his proposed solutions. Watching him over this primary race, where he could only seem to criticize Trump from the right, was a clear rebuke of that. Rubio pandered to extremists repeatedly and consistently. I think he genuinely is one himself. But unlike Cruz, he’s one who could convince people otherwise.
I also was very bullish until after New Hampshire on the chances of Rubio being the nominee, and, uh…oops.
Kasich, by the way, is still a threat. I think he’d get a whole lot more accomplished in terms of consistent conservative reform than Cruz (too hated ideologically and personally) or Trump (too non-ideological). But he probably won’t be the nominee.
Currently there are 1,019 uncommitted GOP delegates (who either will remain unpledged or have not yet been chosen). John Kasich currently has 146. A majority is 1,237. So the only candidates who could win on the first ballot are Donald Trump (691) and Ted Cruz (412). Don’t underestimate Kasich’s ability to affect the race. But I can’t see Trump or Cruz delegates, who will almost certainly combine for a majority, throwing the nomination to Kasich or even Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan.
Trump is dangerous. Not in the sense of winning a general election, but in the sense that he incites violence. His nomination would benefit the nation in that it would likely destroy a party that has moved to the extreme right, already giving us a toxic political climate. But the risk of actual people continuing to be hurt outweighs that. I don’t know that denying Trump the nomination would reduce that violence, though…ugh.
As for the Democrats, uh, Hillary Clinton is going to be the nominee. (Okay — she has a 99.5% chance of being the nominee.) Due to the Democrats’ universally proportional allocation, Bernie Sanders would need to average almost 60% of the vote in the remaining states, and I can’t see that possibly happening. I am NOT calling on him to drop out, to be clear. What reason is there for him to drop out? That wouldn’t make any sense. I’m also not talking about who I want to be the nominee (yes, I do have a preference, and no, please don’t ask who in the comments, though you can PM me). This is just my assessment.
Oh, and Merrick Garland isn’t the Supreme Court nominee I would’ve predicted, but it does make sense that Obama wouldn’t subject the other, equally qualified judges he vetted to a brutal, probably unsuccessful confirmation process that would severely damage their chances of ending up on the Court later. (At 63, Garland is one of the oldest nominees in recent history and likely wouldn’t have another chance anyway.)