Telegram Chronicles: But how will it end? (Part II)

“The kings could not do what they wished so they pretended to wish to do what they could.” — Michel de Montaigne. This quote (in its Russian translation) dominated my Telegram feed all day yesterday. Replace “kings” with “Putin and his administration” and you will see why.

Another round of peace-talks took place in Turkey yesterday, and afterwards many felt that this round has been a lot more productive than the one that came before. As the Guardian reported, “Russia [pledged] to drastically cut back military activity in northern Ukraine.” Hence, the quote. It’s obvious to everyone now that Putin’s initial strategy hasn’t worked, that he had overestimated the strength of the Russian military while underestimating the Ukrainian forces. So now, Russia’s defense minister is saying that the main goal of the war is “liberation” of Donbas. The earlier demands, such as “denazification” or “demilitarization” of Ukraine, haven’t been mentioned in a while and seem to be abandoned.

As for the rest of the peace talks, BBC Russia has reported that while the Russian side continued to insist on Ukraine not joining NATO, which seems like a nonissue at this point, and not developing its own nuclear weapons, it didn’t object to Ukraine potentially joining EU or having its security guaranteed by third-party countries (the US, UK, France, and several others).

According to Meduza, Ukraine suggested the two sides agree to periodically revisit the status of Crimea over the next 15 years and not resort to military actions during that time. The conflict in Donbas, they said, could be resolved in face-to-face talks between Putin and Zelenskiy.

The head of the Russian delegation characterized yesterday’s talks as “constructive.” The rest of the international community was more guarded in their responses. No one feels like they can trust Putin/Russia. Yesterday, Zelenskiy said that while the signals coming from the peace talks appear to be positive, they’re not as loud as the continuing rocket attacks. He added that the situation in Ukraine hasn’t improved yet and there’s little reason to trust the words of those who are representing the aggressor-state.

Meanwhile in Russia, Putin’s most blood-thirsty supporters were unhappy with the announcement of Russia cutting back its military efforts. The comment sections of the government-sanctioned media were bursting with angry messages (“What the hell?!” “Betrayal!”). Not surprisingly, Putin’s spokesperson (Peskov) is now telling reporters that “Russia hadn’t noticed anything really promising or that looked like a breakthrough yet in peace talks.” And despite its promises to halt the attacks in the north, Russia has proceeded to bomb Chernihiv today.

Make what you will of that Montaigne quote, the reactions to the peace talks from political scientists and journalists have been mixed. At least yesterday, many sounded optimistic. (Most agree that Russia can’t afford to continue advancing on all fronts as it had tried to — not sustainable or successful, too many losses.) But not everyone felt hopeful. Political commentator Tatiana Stanovaya suggested that Putin’s demands haven’t drastically changed and that there was still no promise of a compromise in terms of Crimea and Donbas. Putin was still refusing to meet with Zelenskiy face to face. She also pointed out that “cutting back on the military activity” in the north of Ukraine is not the same as stopping the attacks on those areas. (Correct: just look at today’s news.) And Ukraine might still reject Russia’s demands. All in all, she concluded, it was too early to say that the two sides were approaching an agreement.

Some, like Artyom Shraibman, a political scientist from Belarus, worry that the war might drag on for months, tactical pauses and brief periods of truce notwithstanding. Shraibman believes that Putin won’t consider retreating. The invasion he started hasn’t reached any goals but brought on plenty of negative consequences for Russia. Even if he stops the attacks and manages to get some of the sanctions lifted, it won’t be enough. Economically, Russia will be shunned as long as the current regime continues. Nor is it likely that Ukraine will agree to a compromise, Shraibman writes. The only way the war can end quickly, he suggests, is by way of a coup in Russia. Most likely, a military coup. But he doesn’t think such outcome is likely in the near future: Russian state officials exist in a bubble of their own illusions concerning Ukraine, and so does most of Russian society.

Political scientist Abbas Gallyamov (who was a Kremlin speechwriter until 2010) takes a more optimistic position. His prediction is that within a few months the Russian people will experience a sharp decrease in their quality of life. This will affect them much more strongly than the questions of NATO, the US, Ukraine, or the rest of Putin’s favorite topics. They’ll worry about rising prices, unemployment, shortages of medicine and other necessities. The regime will become increasingly unpopular and the protest movement will grow. The rallying-around-the-flag effect, limited even now, will disappear altogether, Gallyamov predicts.

Bulgarian journalist Christo Grozev, highly respected among the Russian opposition, shares this optimism, though he predicts that the revolt will come from the Russian elites, who’ve become accustomed to affluence and the western way of life, as well as the regular people in Russia, whose economic conditions will soon become desperate.

If only things could be resolved as easily as it happens in the latest episode of the popular Russian cartoon Masyanya, in which the beloved heroine visits Putin in his bunker with a special “present.” Seriously, watch it! While its happy ending might be far-fetched, it conveys what many decent (and not zombified by propaganda) Russians think and feel about this war.

P.S. Masyanya, which started as a web cartoon before making it on TV, has been blocked in Russia. Its creator, Oleg Kuvaev, has left the country.

P.P.S. The subtitles aren’t perfect, but that’s the best I could find.

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