Coming from someone who watches Euroleague as well as the NBA, I must say I have been surprised with how poor recent years scouting reports have been. I remember a 25–30 min Grantland article back in the day that parallelled Mirotic’s potential to Kukoc, and prominent writers laughing at the prospect of Porzingis finding success in the NBA. Anyone who had seen at least 5 games of Mirotic knew he had nothing of the fierceness or vision that characterized Toni or any of the big European names that flourished in the NBA. Anyone who had seen 5 games of KP should have been impressed by his willingness to take big shots and his perfect timing to blossom at the start of new age ball.
At any rate, I think Doncic can be a stud (but then again I also thought Rubio would be the next Kidd when he was 17). It will be critical to take note of how he performs at the big stage this year, as he choked in both the Euroleague Final 4 and the Spanish finals a few months back, which Real Madrid was most underwhelming at as a team of course. Guys like Manu, Kukoc, Pau and Rubio all dominated semis and finals on the highest Euroleague stakes at the tender ages of 19–22. If he underperforms for the second straight year when it actually matters (since it’s a known fact Madrid will be contending for both chips again), perhaps it’s time to question his killer ethic. Also interesting will be to keep an eye on this year’s European championships where he’ll share the backcourt with Goran Dragic on a darkhorse team that is not even in the Top 8 as a trophy favorite.
I think his ceiling (and most fitting comparison) might be Manu Ginobili, and guess being a top 10 loved player in the NBA in the past 15 years is no little accomplishment. He won’t be a bust, but considering the scrutiny and expectations a top 2 pick has he might just not live up to it. Then again who remembers and judges the improvement of guys like Oladipo, MKG and Otto Porter as top picks?