Totally agree, love the nuance you pointed out around new customer segments. Even if there is some ability to test with those currently unserved customers (ex. via targeted faux-ad campaigns)… there’s a lot more concern at the corporate level about a) making some kind of false claim about an unreleased product or b) drawing public or press attention to an early/unpolished idea outside of the company’s normal wheelhouse.
The “relevant opportunity size” challenge is hard. You either end up with, like you said, early stage projects where the first 100K of revenue is irrelevant… or you proactively cut out a big swathe of your potential projects because back of the envelope math suggests that they might not be big enough. I don’t have a good answer for that one yet. I feel like I’ve seen some of that challenge mitigated when projects are aligned to a mission-critical long term company goal (i.e. any progress and learning would be appreciated… even if our first attempt looks like a drop in the bucket).