The Data On Your Chances of Dying From COVID-19 (Coronavirus)
If You’re Young and Healthy, You Have Much Less To Worry About
About a month ago, Zerohedge was banned from Twitter from making a post suggesting that the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) was a leaked Chinese bioweapon. These kinds of speculation, coupled with the public’s ability to monitor the virus’ proliferation and the militant response of the Chinese government, have sent the world into a sensationalist tailspin.
This is both justified and unsurprising, but it is no different from the regular hype-cycle of the mainstream media, where news outlets capitalize on peoples’ lack of knowledge on related topics to prey on their feelings of fear, shock, and anger. So, before you go contemplating a trip to your remote bunker, stocking up on ramen, or buying respirators, here are a few stats to put things into perspective.
Note: These statistics were taken from “The epidemiological characteristics of an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus diseases (COVID-19) in China” — an exploratory analysis of all cases diagnosed as of February 11, 2020.
Fatality Rate
With an overall fatality rate of 2.3%, the COVID-19 is over 20x more fatal than seasonal influenza’s <0.1% fatality rate in the U.S.* (according to CDC estimates for the 2019–2020 flu season).
* It’s important to recognize that this delta may be chiefly due to the varying levels of medical infrastructure between both the United States and China (fatality rates for influenza in China could not be found).
While that may seem concerning, it’s important to note that the vast majority of COVID-19-related mortality is for those individuals with pre-existing conditions and over the age of 70.
Fatality Rate by Age / Comorbidity
At the time of this report, the following fatality rates for respective age groups were found:
- 80+ years old: 14.80%
- 70–79 years old: 8.00%
- 60–69 years old: 3.60%
- 50–59 years old: 1.30%
- 40–49 years old: 0.40%
- 30–39 years old: 0.20%
- 20–29 years old: 0.20%
- 10–19 years old: 0.20%
- 0–9 years old: 0.00%
This renders the following pie chart for fatality rate by age:
To break this down further, the under-50 group makes up 3.5% of the total deaths for COVID-19 and have a ~0.2% fatality rate whereas the over-50 group makes up 96.5% of the total deaths with a ~5.8% fatality rate.
To put that into perspective, the under-50 group makes up 8.6% of the total deaths for seasonal influenza and have a ~0.014% fatality rate whereas the over-50 group makes up 91.4% with a ~0.501% fatality rate.
Outcomes continue to worsen with age increase, suggesting that COVID-19, much like the flu, is chiefly a concern for those within the elderly community. This is supported by the fact that fatality rate is highly correlated with existing comorbid conditions.
So, unless you happen to be in your golden years with one or more of these pre-existing conditions, you really shouldn’t be stocking up on respirators, gloves, etc… the fact is that this is a highly contagious virus which will likely infect just as many people as the seasonal flu.
If you find yourself in one of the more at-risk groups and want to take extra precautionary steps against getting COV-19, I advise reading this short article from UCSF which gives a good overview of the virus and the One-page layperson’s guide to the Wuhan coronavirus.
If you found this article helpful or informative, please share it! This situation shouldn’t be taking lightly, but there are a lot of people panicking or overreacting that I believe this information would greatly help.
And lastly,
