Chris Crawford
Nov 1 · 2 min read

Your core argument — that Republican voters are firmly behind Mr. Trump — is rock solid. However, it fails to consider the future. The political situation is not static. It is changing, and the most important component of change is the ongoing series of investigations into Mr. Trump’s criminal activities. Currently Mr. Trump’s telephone call to Mr. Zelenski is the focus of public attention, but there are more than two dozen other investigations underway. You can expect more bombshells as these investigations mature. Some will fizzle out, I’m sure. But there is so much evidence of criminal behavior on Mr. Trump’s part that we must accept the high probability that there will be many more bombshells.

We already have compelling evidence that Mr. Trump committed obstruction of justice on ten occasions. We have video of him soliciting foreign interference in an election — that’s a felony. We have multiple witnesses asserting that he made release of the military aid dependent on Ukraine investigating Hunter Biden. We have proof that he falsified financial statements.

The evidence of felonious behavior just keeps piling up, and as it does, support for impeachment and conviction continues to climb. It’s already around 50% and will only go up. At some point, a strong majority of the American public will want to see Mr. Trump removed from office.

This presents the Republican Party with a huge dilemma: the core Republican voters will never abandon Mr. Trump, yet the rest of the American public is turning against him. If a Republican politician supports Mr. Trump, he’ll win the primary and lose the general. If he turns on Mr. Trump, he’ll lose the primary. In other words, the Republican Party is in a position they cannot possibly win. The Blue Wave predicted for 2020 is beginning to look like a Blue Tsunami.

It might be possible for Republicans to support Mr. Trump through the primaries and then turn on him after they’ve won the primaries. Such an obviously hypocritical act, however, would only serve to drive Republican voters away from the polls in November.

The core problem that the Republican Party faces is that by pandering to the lowest elements of the American psyche, they have painted themselves into an ever-shrinking corner. At this point, the only long-term hope for the Republican Party is to commit electoral suicide in 2020 and reincarnate itself as a center-right party. I doubt that Republican politicians are wise enough to contemplate that action. My guess is that they’ll just have to undergo an electoral disaster in 2020, then tear themselves apart in the aftermath. If the far-right wing of the party wins that fight, then the Republican Party will spend years in the wilderness. Perhaps a new party of moderate-right politicians will arise to replace the Republican Party. I think that the more likely outcome will be the victory of the moderates. Ironically enough, they may be led by Mr. Romney.

In any event, the rats are leaving the sinking ship. SS Trump is going down, and all those rats have a great many songs to sing.

    Chris Crawford

    Written by

    Master of Science, Physics, 1975. Computer Game Designer. Interactive Storytelling. www.erasmatazz.com