Always have multiple theories for explaining and understanding things
When trying to understand or explain something that’s happening, like a certain behavior pattern in your friends or significant other or a trend in fashion, technology, etc, it helps to have more than one hypothesis (theory), (even better if it’s more than two) and assign each one a probability of being right.
Then as you get more evidence for any one of your multiple theories, you adjust the probabilities of what the correct explanation could be. You might also run multiple experiments to cover all your theories. This will lead you to a more accurate understanding of people or the world around you which then leads to more accurate forecasts, better decisions, more confidence and decreased levels of stress.
I believe that there’s always more than one way to explain things, there’s always more than one theory that fits a situation and I’m not attached to any one of them at first. This doesn’t mean that I like being wrong, in fact this means that I want to be even more accurate so I want to cover all my bases. As I gather more data, I eventually converge on a single theory, while still keeping an open mind that it could still change in the future.
As humans we’re addicted to being right, it’s a compulsion that threatens to derail our friendships and our relationships. We want our intuition to be the correct one. It’s very easy to get emotionally attached to certain explanations that benefit us, make us feel smarter, more confident and more proud, or that ensure that we keep our jobs.
When you have multiple competing theories for why something is happening you keep yourself open to possibility, and as a result you understand the world better. You might not look as smart or as confident or as self assured as the person with a single theory, but more often than not, you will end up having more accurate predictions and be more confident than them in the end.
This essay was cross posted on my blog: https://refactoredthinking.com/2016/08/29/always-have-multiple-theories-for-explaining-and-understanding-things/