Market Analysis 6/15 — crypto and US markets

Ergonap
4 min readJun 15, 2022

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Today is not like other days. Today is an FOMC announcement. That is kind of a very big deal. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2022-june.htm . FOMC announcements are where government announces what sort of actions they’re taking with regards to the market at large, usually. This means interest numbers and things that impact inflation. This post is going to be long, so be ready.

The first thing I want to highlight that has been on my radar lately has been the DMI flip on BTC.D that happened.

tradingview chart showing btc dominance flipping direction
btc dominance chart, see the red/green flip?

Usually when this occurs, this can *potentially* highlight an alt run. That’s never guaranteed, because the scenario we’re in is quite bullish for BTC.D (which means bearish for everything else, by definition. In short, this is lights out nights out for the market possibly, as this might be the last correction before the market says goodbye into a black swan.

One of the only hopes remaining, is that we fill the CME gaps around $27k and $34k (Below). That would imply that we are indeed actually going up in the market at least on a short timeframe. If we see $34k quickly, I would be taking everything I have to cash.

tradingview charts of BTC gaps at $26k and $35k approx
recent BTC gaps on CME

Eth likewise has two gaps ahead of it, around $1700 and $2600, approximately.

tradingview chart of ETH CME gaps at $1700 and $2600
recent ETH gaps at the CME

If crypto decouples, we are in for a massive run ahead of us, spurned on by the inflation narrative that will laughably, probably be blamed on the Russian war despite inflation starting to go insane last year. As such, low effort folks will chase money, like this. The private officials concerned are those that care about money from Russia. As always, in the end, when things get ugly, low effort people will get greedy. US market analysis below.

This was as a result of the 5 years prior fiscal policy where profit extraction was enabled for natural resources such as oil and gas. The Texas power grid failures were a symptom of the same such issues. Job loss , Tax cuts to the rich, all add up to what we’re seeing today. Financially strong folks aren’t impacted by the CPI. People who have to buy their groceries, are. And that was the expected result to impact the economy. It’s not rocket science. Add up the totals here and look if they sound like they even out. Is the deficit higher than the increase to the budget sheet? Yes, by 10x. Does it even get worse over time? Also yes. So the 2016 policies will hit us the worst in 2025, meaning the worst has yet to come — as the rich will get richer and the poor will pay more taxes. It can’t be any clearer that the poorest were also targeted the most, as the highest end of the tax costs are on the lowest income group. Basically, this is a straight destroyer of the poorest class. So now lower class is $40k/yr and anyone below that is in “give us all your money” category. Is that political? No. It just happens he was the president when this happened. Is it class warfare? yes.

CBO/JCT estimate of income impact from Trump fiscal policy
last time CPI started to explode was 2021.

The US S&P500 looks as ugly as it ever could. Either we reverse here or we’re into the 1920’s recession territory, right on time (100 years later).

US SPY (S&P 500)

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Ergonap

Foodie, algotrader, trader, chartist. Donations to paypal @ tradernap, Website at tradernap.com