I enjoyed the post but think these two points are not really consensus:
- There will be much less traffic, even if shared AVs do not take off, from the more efficient driving patterns of AVs.
- Vehicle miles traveled per person will not change much from today
Given what we know about travel behavior and the relationship between road supply and VMT, I would not be surprised to see VMT double. I’d put the consensus at somewhere between -15% and +100% VMT per capita. Quite the range! If you account for all of the new drivers/passengers (youth, elderly, vision-impaired, etc.), the reduction in road-based freight costs, and all the reshuffling that will take place as AV fleets move from the high-value land where people want to be to the low-value land where AV taxi companies want to park them off-peak, the increase could be even greater.