What a VC Thinks of Blue Apron’s S-1
Lee Hower
24113

Lies, damn lies and statistics! Great quantitative analysis. I think misses the qualitative side, mostly because they don’t give you churn and they don’t break out cohorts based on those who come through referrals and receive free meals. In my experience, the free meal customers have the highest churn and lowest ltv, thus the true cac for these customers is significantly higher than calculated.

I do believe this business can work, but not at the scale they are striving for. Their real customer is willing to pay more, just not at the same rate as the customers they will lose. However, what I think they lose in volume they can compensate for with a smaller, but profitable, and still attractive business that generates shareholder returns.

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