NFL Strength of Schedule Power Rankings, Week 7

A full half of the teams in the NFL have a record of 4–3, 3–3, or 3–4. There is very little to separate teams until you begin to examine their quality wins and ugly losses. These power rankings are an attempt to rate teams based purely on how they’ve performed this season. A description of how they work can be found here.

1. Philadelphia Eagles (6–1): 20 points. Best win: @Carolina (t9th). Worst loss: @Kansas City (2nd).

The Eagles were considered by some experts in the preseason to have at least a shot at a playoff berth, but seeing them with the best record in the league is definitely a surprise. They earn their top spot in these power rankings with a bunch of decent wins (the Giants are their only opponent to have won fewer than three games this year), but more importantly, by having no bad losses. Their singular loss came in Week 2, away at Kansas City, the team who occupies the second spot in these rankings. Whether or not they can hold onto the top spot after losing LT Jason Peters and MLB Jordan Hicks for the season on Monday remains to be seen.

2. Kansas City Chiefs (5–2): 17 points. Best win: Philadelphia (1st). Worst loss: @Oakland (t21st).

Andy Reid’s Chiefs looked like the only potentially great team in the NFL through Week 5. Through that point, they stood undefeated, with a pair of particularly impressive wins on their resume, at New England in Week 1 and home to Philadelphia in Week 2. But two straight losses send them down to second place behind the Eagles. Both losses are acceptable, however, as the Steelers rank 6th in these rankings, and the Raiders are likely better than their record, as they were without QB Derek Carr for a game and a half. The Chiefs remain the class of the AFC even after their small slide.

3. Minnesota Vikings (5–2): 14 points. Best win: New Orleans (t4th). Worst loss: Detroit (17th).

The Vikings hold the third spot in these rankings through a combination of five solid victories and no bad losses. Their Week 6 victory over the Packers likely is worth more points than it deserves, as the Packers are clearly not the same without QB Aaron Rodgers. But their Week 1 victory against the Saints looks better than it originally appeared now that the Saints are 4–2 and tied for 4th in these power rankings. Furthermore, neither loss, away to Pittsburgh or home against Detroit, is particularly embarrassing. The Vikings look primed to take advantage of the Rodgers-shaped hole at the top of the NFC hierarchy, and have a legitimate shot at a first round bye based on how they’ve played so far.

t4. New England Patriots (5–2): 13 points. Best win: @New Orleans (t4th). Worst loss: Carolina (t9th).

An awful defense hasn’t prevented Bill Belichick’s Patriots from occupying the fourth spot in these rankings. However, their resume doesn’t look too impressive, as they’ve only beaten one team with a winning record (the 4–2 Saints). Even their Week 7 victory over the team they beat in last year’s Super Bowl looks unremarkable, as the Falcons are just 3–3 so far this year. To the Patriots credit, however, their only two losses have been to quality teams in the 5–2 Chiefs and 4–3 Panthers. Still, a 1–2 record against teams with winning records gives us no reason to believe the Patriots are anything close to a juggernaut this year.

t4. New Orleans Saints (4–2): 13 points. Best win: Miami (8th). Worst loss: New England (t4th).

After an 0–2 start, the Saints have racked up four straight wins against teams with .500 or better records. Additionally, neither of those losses looks remotely embarrassing, each coming against teams with a 5–2 record (the Vikings and Patriots). With a 4–2 record against six quality teams, the Saints look like the best team in the NFC South and could be a force to be reckoned with in the NFC.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers (5–2): 11 points. Best win: @Kansas City (2nd). Worst loss: @Chicago (t18th).

The Steelers have been as confusing as QB Ben Roethlisberger’s suddenly poor performances. They’ve racked up two quality wins over the teams ranked second and third in these power rankings, Kansas City and Minnesota. They’ve also lost to the Bears and Jaguars, though the latter loss may not be as bad as it looks, with Jacksonville currently sitting at 4–3. Pittsburgh’s quality wins suggest that they could beat good teams in the playoffs, though it may take a few more weeks to figure out whether this is a true Super Bowl contender.

7. Los Angeles Rams (5–2): 10 points. Best win: @Jacksonville (12th). Worst loss: Washington (t13th).

The Rams are probably the surprise of the season, with second-year QB Jared Goff starting to justify his status as a number one overall pick after a poor rookie season. First-year head coach Sean McVay has Los Angeles in excellent position to grab a playoff spot. However, they sit here at the back of the pack of 5–2 teams as they haven’t beaten anyone in the top ten of these power rankings. Their victory over the Cowboys isn’t looking very impressive, and their only win over a team with a record better than .500 came against the Jaguars. Still, with only two losses and neither of them against a bad team, the Rams have every right to be proud of their hot start.

8. Miami Dolphins (4–2): 9 points. Best win: Tennessee (t13th). Worst loss: @NY Jets (t21st).

The Dolphins have carried QB Jay Cutler to a 4–2 record, but that record is likely a mirage. They rank below most other teams with two losses because they only have one win over a team with a winning record, against the Titans in Week 4. That game occurred while Titans QB Marcus Mariota was injured, however. Furthermore, their four wins have come by an average of 3.5 points. This is probably the Dolphins high water mark in these rankings, unless a switch at QB to Matt Moore proves unexpectedly successful.

t9. Buffalo Bills (4–2): 6 points. Best win: @Atlanta (t13th). Worst loss: @Cincinnati (28th).

The Bills are an interesting test of this ranking’s methodology. They sit pretty low for a team with their record due to the fact that they’ve yet to beat any team with a winning record. Their best win was against against a team who is just tied for 13th on this list — but that was an away win against last year’s Super Bowl runner up, Atlanta. If you think the Falcons (and/or the 3–3 Broncos) are significantly better than their record, then the Bills have a quality win or two on their resume. Judging just by the performances of teams this year, however, the Bills are 4–2 largely due to a friendly schedule, and there is little reason to buy them as serious contenders just yet.

t9. Carolina Panthers (4–3): 6 points. Best win: @New England (t4th). Worst loss: @Chicago (t18th).

The Panthers have a pair of good wins (home to Buffalo and away at New England) and one bad loss (away at Chicago). Their other two losses came against top-five teams, according to these power rankings, so they’ve really only had one bad game. But that one bad game, a 17–3 loss against the Bears, is enough to cast serious doubts on the Panthers’ status as an NFC contender. But with Chicago being only one game below .500 and having a win against the Steelers on their resume as well, perhaps that blip is more forgivable than it seems.

t9. Green Bay Packers (4–3): 6 points. Best win: Seattle (t13th). Worst loss: @Atlanta (t13th).

Another team destined to fall, the Packers are unlikely to remain near the NFC’s elite without QB Aaron Rodgers. Two straight losses under backup QB Brett Hundley demonstrate just how tough it will be for the Packers to make it to the playoffs without their star. Still, both losses came against top 5 teams according to these power rankings, so perhaps there is hope that Hundley can lead the Packers to enough wins against mediocre and poor teams to sneak into the playoffs.

12. Jacksonville Jaguars (4–3): 5 points. Best win: @Pittsburgh (6th). Worst loss: @NY Jets (t21st).

Another surprise team, the Jaguars have achieved a winning record largely by not letting their QB Blake Bortles beat them. While two of their losses, away at the Jets and home to the Rams, would have looked bad in the preseason, both of those opponents have performed better than expected this year. With a very impressive 30–9 win over the Steelers in Pittsburgh on the Jaguars’ resume, a playoff appearance doesn’t seem impossible, especially in a comparatively mediocre division like the AFC South.

t13. Atlanta Falcons (3–3): 4 points. Best win: Green Bay (t9th). Worst loss: Buffalo (t9th).

Three straight losses have sent the Falcons crashing down the rankings, but there are reasons to remain hopeful in Atlanta. Their losses against Buffalo and Miami don’t seem great, but both teams have a 4–2 record this year, and a loss away in New England is nothing to be ashamed of. Furthermore, the fact that all three of their losses are non-conference losses could help out the Falcons in the event of a tiebreaker, as their conference record remains unblemished. Atlanta has yet to lose to a team outside the top ten, but they will have to beat several top-ten teams if they want to return to the Super Bowl this February.

t13. Seattle Seahawks (4–2): 4 points. Best win: @LA Rams (7th). Worst loss: @Tennessee(16th).

The Seahawks may be 4–2, but they rank comparatively low on these rankings due to a lack of quality wins. Victories over the 49ers, Colts, and Giants tell us next to nothing about the strength of the team. Their only win over a team with a winning record came away at the Rams, which looks good now, but may look less impressive if the Rams fall down to the level they were expected to be before the season started. We know very little about the Seahawks’ status as contenders so far, but they will continue to rise in these rankings if they keep winning.

t13. Washington Redskins (3–3): 4 points. Best win: @LA Rams (7th). Worst loss: @Kansas City (2nd).

The Redskins are 3–0 when playing teams ranked below #2 on these power rankings. If you believe that the Eagles and Chiefs are as good as they’ve played so far this year, there is no shame in losing to either team. Furthermore, if you believe that the Rams are as good as their record suggests, then Washington has a quality away win on their resume. The Skins may be better than their record, and look to have a legitimate shot at a wild card spot in the NFC.

16. Tennessee Titans (4–3): 2 points. Best win: @Jacksonville (12th). Worst loss: Oakland (t21st).

The Titans have a pair of good wins against tough defenses on their resume, scoring 37 away at the division rival Jaguars in Week 2 and putting up 33 points against the Seahawks in Week 3. Their sole “bad” loss came against the Raiders, who are likely underrated in these power rankings due to their QB Derek Carr missing time. The Titans definitely have a shot at a division title in the wide open AFC South.

17. Detroit Lions (3–3): 1 point. Best win: @Minnesota (3rd). Worst loss: Atlanta (t13th).

The Lions have largely beaten bad teams and lost to good ones. Their 14–7 victory in Minnesota is the only exception to that, and they were a few inches away from beating the defending NFC champion Falcons as well. This looks like a team with an outside shot of taking advantage of Aaron Rodgers’ injury and winning the NFC North, though the Vikings have a resume filled with more quality wins at this point.

t18. Houston Texans (3–3): -1 point. Best win: Tennessee (16th). Worst loss: Jacksonville (12th).

Rookie QB Deshaun Watson has made the Texans exciting to watch, but they’ve yet to beat anyone in the top fifteen of these power rankings. Two of their wins, against the lowly Bengals and Browns, tell us very little about this team’s strength. Their losses don’t tell us much either, as they’ve yet to lose to a team with a .500 or worse record, and losses to the Patriots and Chiefs are particularly forgivable. Altogether, that adds up to a .500 team, which could leave the Texans within striking distance of a third straight division title in the mediocre AFC South.

t18. Chicago Bears (3–4): -1 point. Best win: Pittsburgh (6th). Worst loss: @Tampa Bay (27th).

The Bears have been surprisingly mediocre for a team that started the year with Mike Glennon under center. They have recorded two true quality wins against top-ten teams, the Steelers and Panthers. Their one bad loss was away to a Buccaneers team that many thought was a contender in the preseason. The Bears don’t have the roster we’d associate with a team capable of taking advantage of Aaron Rodgers’ injury and winning the NFC North, but their resume so far this year suggests we shouldn’t count them out.

20. Los Angeles Chargers (3–4): -2 points. Best win: @Oakland (t21st). Worst loss: @Denver (t21st).

The Chargers rebounded from an 0–4 start by winning three straight, and have earned the top spot among sub-.500 teams in these power rankings. While they’ve yet to beat a team ranked higher than 20th, they also have no bad losses. Their four losses came against three top-eight teams plus away to the division rival Broncos. There is no reason to believe this is a great team, but the lack of bad losses suggests the Chargers may be a bit better than their record and have an outside shot at making a run at the playoffs.

t21. Denver Broncos (3–3): -3 points. Best win: LA Chargers (20th). Worst loss: NY Giants (30th).

The Broncos have looked mediocre most of the season, as one would expect from a team with an excellent defense and a 7th-round Quarterback. They’ve yet to record a quality win, unless you think the Cowboys are closer to last year’s record than they’ve shown so far. They have one truly bad loss, though it’s the worst loss anyone has had so far this season, at home against the Giants. Playoff teams don’t lose at home by 13 points to the third-worst team in the league. The Broncos are far from out of it, but they have work to do to prove that they deserve to be in the playoff conversation.

t21. New York Jets (3–4): -3 points. Best win: Miami (8th). Worst loss: @Oakland (t21st).

The Jets definitely aren’t good, but they’re far better than the potential 0–16 team some analysts were predicting in preseason. They may even be better than their record, as three of their four losses came against top-eight teams, and the fourth was against a Raiders team that still had Derek Carr. They also have a pair of wins against top-twelve teams, the Dolphins and Jaguars, though neither of those teams were supposed to be particularly good this year. Judging by results so far, this could be a respectable 7- or 8-win team, though whether or not that’s a good thing for the franchise is certainly debatable.

t21. Oakland Raiders (3–4): -3 points. Best win: Kansas City (2nd). Worst loss: Baltimore (26th).

A 3–4 record is a disappointing start for a team projected to be one of the AFC favorites at the start of the season. There are reasons to suspect that the Raiders are far better than their ranking here, however. Oakland is 3–2 in games where Derek Carr played the whole game, and their one bad loss (home against the Ravens) occurred when Carr missed the entire game. Their victory against the second-ranked Chiefs in Week 7 is perhaps a sign that the Raiders are back on the road to playoff contention, and it would not be surprising to see them rise up the ranks in the next few weeks.

24. Dallas Cowboys (3–3): -4 points. Best win: @Arizona (25th). Worst loss: @Denver (t21st).

The Cowboys rank below several under-.500 teams because they have yet to beat a half-decent team. The three teams they’ve beat, the Giants, Cardinals, and 49ers, have a combined 4–16 record, and all fall in the bottom eight of these power rankings. While the Cowboys don’t yet have a bad loss, they simply haven’t done anything to prove that they’re a legitimate playoff threat. Until they beat a good (or even mediocre) team, these Cowboys seem more likely to repeat the 8–8 record they put up in Jason Garrett’s first three years with the team (2011–2013) than the 13–3 record they achieved last year.

25. Arizona Cardinals (3–4): -6 points. Best win: Tampa Bay (27th). Worst loss: Dallas (24th).

Despite being just one game under .500, the Cardinals are almost certainly out of playoff contention. They’ve yet to beat a team ranked outside the bottom six of these power rankings, and now they’ve lost QB Carson Palmer for most if not all of the rest of the season. Even a highly improbable return to MVP form for 32-year old RB Adrian Peterson likely won’t be enough to drag the Cardinals into the playoff race.

26. Baltimore Ravens (3–4): -7 points. Best win: @Oakland (t21st). Worst loss: Chicago (t18th).

The Joe Flacco era is ending in Baltimore. The Ravens have yet to beat a top-twenty team, and their best win, away against the 21st-ranked Raiders, occurred while Oakland QB Derek Carr was injured. The lack of bad losses (counting the loss to Chicago as an acceptable loss, given that the Bears have beaten two top-ten teams) means that the Ravens could be close to a .500 team, but the lack of quality wins means that there’s no reason to view this Ravens team as a contender.

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2–4): -8 points. Best win: Chicago (t18th). Worst loss: @Arizona (25th).

The Buccaneers were a preseason darkhorse contender, but they have certainly underwhelmed so far. There may be some reason to believe they’ll turn things around, as three of their four losses have come against top-ten teams. But the Buccaneers have no wins against top-half teams on their resume, and one of their two wins came against the pathetic Giants, so there is no real reason to view them as a contender at this point.

28. Cincinnati Bengals (2–4): -10 points. Best win: Buffalo (t9th). Worst loss: Baltimore (26th).

The Bengals are 1–4 when not playing the last-ranked Browns. They only have one loss against a sub-.500 team, and they do have a win against a top-ten team in the Bills, so there is some reason to believe they could finish with a respectable record. But after a 2–4 start to the season, the Bengals will likely have to finish 8–2 over their last ten games to make the playoffs, which seems well beyond this team’s reach.

29. Indianapolis Colts (2–5): -17 points. Best win: San Francisco (31st). Worst loss: Arizona (25th).

There is a big gap between the comparatively respectable Bengals and the four truly awful teams which hold the final four spots on this list. While the Colts do have two wins, the two teams they beat have gone a combined 0–14 and occupy the bottom two spots in these rankings. This is certainly a lost season for the Colts, who will probably end the season regretting their victories over the Browns and 49ers as they race for the number one pick in the draft.

30. New York Giants (1–6): -19 points. Best win: @Denver (t21st). Worst loss: @Tampa Bay (27th).

Despite reaching the playoffs last season, the Giants are closer to a battle for the number one overall pick than a battle for a wild card spot. New York’s only win came against a team outside the top twenty, and they have given us very little reason to believe they’ll win more than one or two more. That should position the Giants well in the draft, perhaps allowing them to draft a successor for aging QB Eli Manning.

31. San Francisco 49ers (0–7): -29 points. Best win: None. Worst loss: @Indianapolis (29th).

The only positive thing to say about the 49ers performance thus far is that five of their seven losses have come by three points or less. That may actually be the ideal scenario for a rebuilding team, as they can take heart from some acceptable performances without any of those pesky wins which get in the way of a high draft slot. The Niners’ performances so far suggest that they could win a few games and finish with a pick in the 3-to-5 range, but if they can manage to keep losing close games, they could well beat out the Browns for the number one pick.

32. Cleveland Browns (0–7): -32 points. Best win: None. Worst loss: @Indianapolis (29th).

The Browns nearly pulled off a winless season last year, finally getting one win in Week 16 against the Chargers. Based on their performances thus far, a winless season seems entirely possible again this year. Four of Cleveland’s losses have come against teams ranked 21st or below, earning them the bottom spot on these power rankings. The Browns would probably like to luck into a win at some point to avoid the ignominy of a winless season, but they probably don’t mind being the favorites for a second-straight first overall pick.