Regenerative Decision-making Process for Reversing the Planet’s Eco-crises
Optionality is the property of asymmetric upside (preferably unlimited)
with correspondingly limited downside (preferably tiny).
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Chapter 5 from We Can Reverse the Planet’s Eco-crises asked, “What might a decision-making process look like for adopting regenerative options at the exponential rate needed for reversing the planet’s eco-crises?”
Before answering that question, let’s talk generally about present-day decision-making for adopting options that meet human physical needs.
Present-day decision-making is a simple 3-step process.
First, decision-makers perceive a present physical need …
Second, decision-makers shop for an option that meets that present need …
Third, decision-makers adopt an option that meets that present need at lowest incurred cost …
Present-day decision-making cannot reverse the planet’s ecological crises for two reasons.
First, present-day decision-making contains no process for appreciating the avoided cost benefits and regeneration benefits of regenerative options. Without appreciation of avoided cost benefits, avoided pollution benefits, and increased number of species per area benefits, decision-makers are not going to persuade themselves to adopt regenerative options …
Second, present-day decision-making adopts options at an incremental rate to meet present physical needs and contains no process for adopting regenerative options at an exponential rate. Without such an exponential process, decision-makers are not going to adopt regenerative options at the exponential rate needed for reversing the planet’s ecological crises …
Putting these reasons together, present-day decision-making is not a process for adopting regenerative options at the exponential rate needed for reversing the planet’s ecological crises …
Present-day decision-making is keeping decision-makers everywhere (that is, all of us) stuck …
… on an unlimited downside of exponentially growing incurred pollution flows …
… an unlimited downside of exponentially growing species extinctions …
… and an unlimited downside of exponentially growing incurred costs of not solving the planet’s eco-crises[1] …
Because present-day decision-making is not a process for adopting regenerative options at the exponential rate needed for reversing the planet’s ecological crises, the third question is, “What might a decision-making process look like for adopting regenerative options at the exponential rate needed for reversing the planet’s eco-crises?”
Such a decision-making process — usable by decision-makers everywhere — might look like a 4-step regenerative decision-making process:
First, decision-makers identify their options for meeting human physical needs, evaluate the performance benefits, economic benefits, and regeneration benefits of their options, compare those benefits, and persuade themselves what options they want to adopt …
Second, decision-makers adopt a regenerative option, and deliver its performance benefits, economic benefits and regeneration benefits …
Third, decision-makers measure the delivered benefits and enthuse themselves to deliver more benefits faster …
Fourth, decision-makers enthuse themselves to persuade themselves faster to adopt more regenerative options …
They enthuse themselves to make more decisions faster to adopt more regenerative options …
They enthuse themselves to adopt more regenerative options faster and deliver more benefits faster …
They enthuse themselves to measure the delivered benefits and deliver more benefits even faster …
They enthuse themselves to persuade themselves even faster to adopt more regenerative options …
They enthuse themselves to make even more decisions even faster to adopt more regenerative options …
They enthuse themselves to adopt even more regenerative options even faster and deliver even more benefits even faster …
Decision-makers’ faster and faster decision-making creates the exponential adoption of more and more regenerative options that deliver more and more benefits …
Decision-makers’ faster and faster decision-making delivers more and more regeneration benefits …
… at the exponential rate needed for scaling back the extraction flows and pollution flows of the Human Enterprise …
Scaling back the extraction flows and pollution flows of the Human Enterprise allows the planet’s biosphere to regenerate itself …
The planet’s regenerated biosphere reverses the planet’s ecological crises …
… and allows the planet to heal itself …
Through decision-makers’ exponential adoption of regenerative options, regenerative decision-making shifts decision-makers everywhere …
… from an unlimited downside of exponentially growing incurred pollution …
… to an unlimited upside of exponentially growing avoided pollution …
… from an unlimited downside of exponentially growing species extinctions …
… to an unlimited upside of exponentially growing number of species per area …
… and from an unlimited downside of exponentially growing incurred costs of not solving the planet’s ecological crises …
… to an unlimited upside of exponentially growing avoided costs delivered by regenerative options that decision-makers want to adopt …
[1] See Kotz, M., Levermann, A. & Wenz, L., Nature 658, 551–570 (2024) (estimating global annual damages (that is, incurred costs) of $38 trillion in 2049 of not solving the planet’s climate crisis)
In the next article (Chapter 9 from We Can Reverse the Planet’s Eco-crises), we will look at a design for a computer-implemented application (an “app”) — usable by decision-makers everywhere — for exponentially adopting regenerative options and reversing the planet’s ecological crises.
I’m currently publishing We Can Reverse the Planet’s Eco-crises in series format: one chapter at a time starting with Chapter 1 and continuing through Chapter 10 plus a chapter-length Appendix.
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Aloha and thank you for reading.
