Global warming has already crossed the threshold of 1.5 degrees by 2023
Climatologists have proposed a new approach to assessing the temperature increase, which has yielded such a result
By 2023, global warming had reached 1.49±0.11 degrees, which means it had already exceeded the 1.5-degree threshold described in the Paris Agreement. These estimates were provided by scientists who proposed a new approach to assessing temperature growth — revising the pre-industrial level and simplifying calculations of modern warming. The results of their study were published in the journal Nature Geoscience.
Assessments of global climate change and international climate agreements are guided by a universal indicator — the increase in average temperature relative to the pre-industrial level. To measure this increase, two problems need to be solved: agree on what exactly we consider the pre-industrial level, and separate natural climate variability from anthropogenic warming as accurately as possible. The efforts of climatologists are primarily aimed at the second problem since the pre-industrial level is considered to be the average value of temperature anomalies in the period 1850–1900. However, these 50 years were marked by significant uncertainties in the anomaly series, and anthropogenic carbon emissions…
