Why I’m concerned about the coronavirus: applying viral growth data metrics to a growing crisis
“We can’t predict when, but given the continual emergence of new pathogens, the increasing risk of a bioterror attack, and the ever-increasing connectedness of our world, there is a significant probability that a large and lethal modern-day pandemic will occur in our lifetime.” — Bill Gates
Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has been grabbing headlines and generating justifiable fear and caution worldwide over the past month. The concern is well-founded. In an effort to collect my thoughts and make sense of the (often conflicting) information, I wanted to apply what I’ve read so far about 2019-nCoV to a framework that’s familiar to me.
I have spent 20 years working with viral growth data metrics as they relate to the consumer internet, and applying these concepts to the spread of 2019-nCoV has been helpful for me as I think through the best ways to protect my family. I want to stress that my area of expertise is not in virology, epidemiology, or medicine. I am sharing my thoughts more widely in case it helps anyone else make sense of the current spread of 2019-nCoV.
