Why I’m concerned about the coronavirus: applying viral growth data metrics to a growing crisis

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Screenshot of online dashboard of Coronavirus 2019-nCoV Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE

“We can’t predict when, but given the continual emergence of new pathogens, the increasing risk of a bioterror attack, and the ever-increasing connectedness of our world, there is a significant probability that a large and lethal modern-day pandemic will occur in our lifetime.” — Bill Gates

Reproduction number (R0)

R0 = transmission risk (p) x contact rate (γ) x duration (D)

Case fatality rate (CFR)

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Red = confirmed cases; Yellow = suspected cases; Green = recovered cases; Grey = deaths. https://news.qq.com/zt2020/page/feiyan.htm#charts

CFR = deaths / (deaths + recoveries)

2019-nCoV vs. SARS-CoV

武汉加油! 中国加油!

Be strong, Wuhan! Be strong, China!

Investor, Entrepreneur, and Growth Specialist. Previously VP of Growth at Uber and Head of International Growth at Facebook. Now living in Cambridge, MA.

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