World War III is Inevitable
Why the Greatest Bull Market of Peace in Human History Must End.
“Peace, peace, but there is no peace. The war has already begun.” These sentiments expressed by Patrick Henry have been true throughout human history. The natural state of man is not peace but rather conflict. The best experts would be hard-pressed to find a year in human history with no conflict globally. From Cain and Able and ancient Egypt to the USSR and the Third Reich, there has always been hostility in this world.
According to the PRIO Institute, throughout most of human history, military deaths per 100,000 people have ranged between 2 and 50. They are reasonably elastic at these levels. These levels have been consistent for most of recorded history except for the last 25 years. For the first time in recorded history, deaths per 100,000 people have fallen well below one worldwide. In fact, levels have reached below 0.5 consistently over the past few years.
It is also human nature to believe that a recent change or a dramatic shift will continue in perpetuity; however, like the financial markets, when there is a drastic pull in a single direction, it is usually followed by a dramatic movement in the opposite direction. In the perfect world of theoretical physics, we know that when there is an action, there is also an equal and opposite reaction.
There are very few constants in this world, but human nature’s deteriorated and imperfect state is one of them. In short, human nature does not change.
The primary argument against a large-scale war in this day and age is weapons of mass destruction. When looking at history, however, there has always been massive obstacles to war. For example, the mobility and order of the Romans was at one time viewed to be invincible. In later ages, all of Europe viewed the walls of Constantinople to be impenetrable, and four hundred years later, when cannons caused traditional ship defenses to be obsolete, metal hulls were invented to make cast cannons obsolete. However, every weapon or obstacle to war has always been overcome at some point. By nature, people are quite good at finding loopholes or ways of breaking systems.
Since the natural state of humanity is conflict, and human nature has not changed, and there is, at this point in history, a singular obstacle (WMDs) stopping humans from devolving into conflict, it follows that man inevitably will find a way around WMDs as he has around every other technological defense innovation in human history.
Many theorists believe that the avenue to disable WMDs is through cyber warfare. Cyberwarfare is the Wild West of defense at this point. The only problem with persistent cyber warfare is that if cyberattacks are entirely effective, the hardware they target will be altogether disabled or destroyed. Thus over time, in a hot cyberwar, the ability to have another cyberwar is exceedingly reduced. Do not forget the statement, “I know not what weapons the Third World War will be fought with, but the Fourth will be fought with sticks and stones.”
Let us not discount all conventional means. Thinking back to after the Roman Empire fell or any other major empire’s demise, there is always a technological recession. Furthermore, destruction is not limited to only cutting-edge methods but is, in fact, very rudimentary in nature. Thus destruction can be accomplished by even a technologically crude adversary.
It may be a depressing thought for the average reader that after almost a century of declining conflict, we must inevitably see a significant uptick in the future. As with any other market, it cannot be known when the market will turn, and the good times of the bull market will last a lot longer than anticipated in most cases. It is bullish until it is not. It is peaceful until it is not.
As a democratic society, we like to think that we are the “good guys” in the world; however, it is hard for a society so focused on being the “good guys” to maintain without a bad guy. Many theorists have thought that a world of only democratic governments cannot maintain since there are no enemies. The most unified points in the history of the United States were following a major attack by an enemy; Pearl Harbor, 9–11, or even the founding of this country, for example.
The only current superpower, the United States, does not currently have an external enemy sizable enough or aggressive enough to endanger our freedom and security existentially. Because as the good guys, we are the hammer in search of a nail, we look internally and create division and make ourselves weaker when we need to be strong and vigilant.
The more prosperity that the world experiences and, in particular, the developed world experiences, the less aggregated time is spent on military matters. While the raw number of defense spending may be higher than ever, that does not mean much. The primary reason is that people no longer view defense development as a priority. For example, the United States has had more technological innovation than ever over the past 25 years, but technology companies that focus on defense are virtually nonexistent. Palantir is the only public tech company with a defense focus, and Anduril is the only major private tech company with a defense focus. Traditional companies like Lockheed Martin, Northop Grumman, Raytheon, and General Dynamics are quite good at making traditional military weapons like airplanes, tanks, and missiles, but where is the innovation? The F35 aircraft has been in development since the 90s; meanwhile, Amazon barely existed in the 90s, iPhones did not exist, and Facebook was not founded. The rate of innovation is simply different in the consumer sector for one of the first times in human history. War has usually spurred most technological innovations, but not anymore.
As a society, knowing that this wild bull market of peace that we are in cannot persist and knowing the inevitableness of largescale conflict arising, it would be irresponsible not to invest heavily in technology that can better defend ourselves, our families, and our country. Let us pray that our lack of awareness for our nature does not allow us to be brought like sheep to the slaughter. “Are we going to be subjected to chains and slavery? Forgive us, Almighty God…”