2024 MLB Mock Draft 1.0

17 min readMar 26, 2024

Published on March 26th, however some statistics might slightly be off arising from the mock’s initiation on March 23rd. Due to not having as much information regarding the prep players being selected in this mock, I included the player’s scouting grades for reference. Enjoy!

Cleveland Guardians- 2B Travis Bazzana, Oregon State

The Cleveland Guardians have a type. An athletic position player who sacrifices power to put the ball in play. However, don’t let Bazzana’s second base frame fool you. Along with his .373 career batting average, he has raw power that he has tapped into. In the young season, he has a HardHit% of 67% with an average exit velocity of 94.3. Even more impressively, he ranks in the 97th percentile in 90th percent Exit Velocity showcasing that raw power. Despite question marks about his defense at second, his bat is a safe bet in taking first overall pick.

2. Cincinnati Reds- RHP Chase Burns, Wake Forest

The other team from Ohio’s main goal is to have a front-line ace to pair with their young, offensive-nucleus. The Reds have the opportunity to nab that future ace in selecting Chase Burns. The former Tennessee transfer has returned to the rotation and has a soaring 48.7 K%. It’s hard not to compare him to last year’s first overall pick, Paul Skenes, mainly because Skenes might even be better.

4-Seam FB Comparisons

Burns has nearly 4 more inches in ride, cut and spin, while Skenes 4-Seam FB is flatter. Burns’ slider might be the icing on the cake for him obtaining a 63% whiff rate, while being able to command it well. The right hander is an easy pick as the first pitcher off the board.

3. Colorado Rockies- OF/3B Charlie Condon, Georgia

The Colorado Rockies become inclined to take the 2024 Golden Spikes favorite in Charlie Condon. Condon is putting on an encore, after hitting 25 home runs last year, he already has hit 16 through 22 games. He has improved in all facets of the game. His GB% is as low as 31%, his plate discipline has improved with a 4% increase in his Z-Contact to 90%. His chase% lowered to 19% and his walk% increased to nearly 16%. The former walk-on has split time between Right Field and Third Base. He is probably more destined to play in right, but he’s athletic enough and has a strong enough arm to play the hot corner. His versatility to play both third base and a corner outfield position makes him valuable to any organization, and he has the chance to be the first overall pick.

4. Oakland Athletics- SS/2B JJ Wetherholt, West Virginia

The West Virginia middle infielder got hurt at possibly the most unfortunate time. In his draft-eligible Junior year, he battled a hamstring injury that has sidelined him since Mid-February. Wetherholt is making progress and should be getting back onto the field soon. The Athletics are near the bottom half in farm rankings from most baseball publications, so this is a perfect opportunity in grabbing a player who was projected first overall from this past winter months. The Pittsburgh native had a triple slash-line of .321/.406/.571 in the Cape Cod league this past summer. He has a 70 graded hit tool with a swinging strike % of less than 5% from his 2023 campaign. The Athletics should give him every and any opportunity to handle shortstop because of his elite athletic ability.

5. Chicago White Sox- OF Vance Honeycutt, North Carolina

After somewhat of a decline in his Sophomore year, Honeycutt has rebounded well for his Junior year. Looking at the numbers under the hood, it looks like Honeycutt attempted to cut down on his swing and miss rate and while he succeeded in doing so last year, those daunting numbers are back at the forefront. The UNC outfielder has the power to back this pick with a 17% Pulled fly ball rate. I wouldn’t select Honeycutt higher than 5, but if he can improve his swing and miss rate while continuing to show his power this pick can be applauded for his upside.

6. Kansas City Royals- P/1B Jac Caglianone, Florida

Arguably the most interesting and notable name comes off the board at number 6. The two-way player that has an electric arm and a powerful bat. Obviously it’ll be difficult to transition into a two-way player in the pro side, but Caglianone might be the best two-way prospect we have seen in recent years (outside of Ohtani if you want to call him an International Prospect). His bat is more accomplished than his arm. He has the highest 90th percent exit velocity and a Z-Contact of 95%. He does chase a lot- a career 39.7% chase rate. That will be something to monitor as SEC play begins. His pitching ability is ranked more for a middle/back of the rotation starter as he has issues with his command.

7. St. Louis Cardinals- LHP Hagen Smith, Arkansas

Cardinals General Manager, Jon Mozeliak, announced that he wanted to add starters and improve the starting rotation. He improved the rotation by signing veteran Sonny Gray and acquiring a couple of pitching prospects from last year’s trade deadline that includes one of their top prospects, Tekoah Roby. The redbirds have the chance to select a pitcher who can fill out their future rotation as their future ace. Smith is addicted to missing bats with a 58.8 K%. His low arm slot combined with his 96 mph fastball with ride makes him unique. The southpaw struck out 17 batters through 6 innings of work against Oregon State (Ranked 7th in the nation at the time) earlier this season, and that can be thanks to his devastating slider. He gets batters to chase 47% of the time on his slider, and miss 61.5% of the time. Taking the ace of the number 1 program in the nation is a wise decision here.

8. Los Angeles Angels- SS/OF Seaver King, Wake Forest

Seaver King has excelled wherever he has gone. Originally playing D-2 baseball, King flourished in the Cape Cod league with a triple slash line of .424/.479/.542. Adding on to his small sample size of stronger competition, he has a .310/.351/.575 triple slash line good enough for a .926 OPS in 94 plate appearances for Wake Forest this year. King has good plate discipline, doesn’t swing and miss a lot with a minuscule 10% swinging strike rate and has power to the pull side and opposite side with 3 homers to his pull side and 3 homers going the opposite way. King is athletic enough to possibly play short, but second base or the outfield might be his calling card. His strong arm and his range probably suits him for Center Field.

9. Pittsburgh Pirates- SS/OF Konnor Griffin, Jackson Prep

One of the younger players in the draft due to reclassifying himself. Verbal commitment to LSU and a two-way player, however he will probably stick to being a position player, giving up the mound.

10. Washington Nationals- 1B Nick Kurtz, Wake Forest

The third Wake Forest player to go in the top 10 is the strong hitting first baseman. His power stroke hasn’t come yet in the 2024 season, but pitchers are attacking him more carefully. Last season he saw pitches 45.4% in the zone, and this year it is down to 39.7%. What helps his case is he isn’t antsy and isn’t trying to do too much. His walk rate climbed from 21.8% to 30%. He doesn’t fall victim to the chase rates like Jac Caglianone does. He is all in for power with a 14.6 Pulled Flyball% and a career 108.4 exit velocity. For a power hitting first baseman there won’t be a platoon needed for him. The lefty swinging Demon Deacon has a career slash line of .317/.479/.577, a .261 ISO, and a .455 wOBA against lefties. With this selection, the Nationals newest prospect becomes their most talented hitter in the farm system.

11. Detroit Tigers- OF Dakota Jordan, Mississippi State

The Tigers take a sophomore eligible draft pick that happens to be one of the better athletes in this year’s draft. Jordan, scores a 60 grade run tool according to most scouts and has one of the best power bats in not only the SEC, but in the country. He has hit home runs off of first round pitchers (Chase Dollander, and projected first rounder Thatcher Hurd), and taken multiple pitches 470 feet on two separate occasions. The Mississippi State has the power-bat of a corner outfielder, with a career .682 slugging and a .339 ISO. Anybody in the stadium can hear the ball blast off his bat with a loud 99.1 average exit velocity. He might not stick in center field, but there is a lot to be excited about in his strength as a potential corner outfielder going forward.

12. Boston Red Sox- OF Braden Montgomery, Texas A&M

The Red Sox select a two-way player that is more inclined to stick with the bat. Montgomery is a switch hitting outfielder who transferred to Texas A&M this season. He generates more power from the left side as his career .671 slugging can attest to that, yet he is becoming much better on the right side as well. It is a small sample size, but in 30 plate appearances he is slugging .773 from the right side. Overall, he has cut into his chase and whiff percentages each year. Due to Montgomery having experience as a hard throwing pitcher, he has one of the strongest arms in the class he lines up to be more in right field or maybe even center field.

13. San Francisco Giants- OF Carson Benge, Oklahoma State

Three straight outfielders are selected and the Giants select another former two-way player. Benge can hit the ball hard as well as the rest of them with a max exit velocity of 125 mph, ranking second in all of college baseball behind Jordan Peyton of Towson. Benge has the physical bat tools of a power-hitting corner outfielder with good plate discipline. Unfortunately, his swing characteristics don’t match his prototype. Last year his ground ball% was 55.3 and it minimally decreased to 50%. The Oklahoma State’s outfielder has a mere .6 Launch Angle for his college career. His pulled fly ball rate increased to 6.2%, but he’s a player that you would like to see in the double digits with the potential power he can produce. Taking him here at 13 on the chance San Francisco can tweak his swing a little to see singles turn into extra base hits.

14. Chicago Cubs- SS/3B Kaelen Culpepper, Kansas State

The Chicago Cubs took middle infielder Matt Shaw in last year’s draft, and they follow that up in selecting another infielder with similar attributes. Culpepper might not exactly have the game power as Shaw does, but he certainly has advertised his raw power. During his freshman year, in back to back games against rival Kansas he uncorked home runs that went 423 feet and 472 feet. This year his chase% is in the 11% percentile which could be an issue for his plus graded hit tool. The Kansas State prospect moved to shortstop this year, which ultimately helps his value, and he has played it well thanks to his strong arm. Ultimately, if Culpepper can gain more power to his swing, the turned shortstop can be a really nice player.

15. Seattle Mariners- RHP Brody Brecht, Iowa

The Seattle Mariners and their pitching lab invest in one of the more interesting arms in college baseball. Brecht is a hard-throwing right hander that maxed out at 100 MPH and has 16 inches of induced vertical break. His slider is more of a “gyro” slider and he still gets an absurd 58.9% miss rate. The slider is what gets people excited and it’s a fair choice for his breaking ball, because of the whiff rate, and his troubles with command. His walk rate is 17.4% on the season, and 19% overall. Being able to control the zone might be the caveat in keeping him as a starter as he enters professional baseball. One final note about Brecht is his ability to limit the longball as he has only surrendered 2 home runs in 35 games in his collegiate career.

16. Miami Marlins- 1B/OF PJ Morlando, Summerville HS

Ranked number 14 according to MLB.com’s 100 prospect big board, the lefty swinging corner outfielder is from South Carolina, and has committed to the University of South Carolina. He has the loudest bat among all prep hitters and has an average arm and speed to make it work as a corner outfielder.

17. Milwaukee Brewers- LHP Cam Caminiti, Saguaro HS

Hard-throwing left handed pitcher touching 98 MPH committed to LSU. Caminiti was originally a two-way player, but transitioned to a full-time pitcher. Originally a 2025 eligible draft pick, but reclassified making him draft-eligible this year at the age of 17.

18. Tampa Bay Rays- OF Will Taylor, Clemson

Taylor has always been a player who could walk, but his plate discipline numbers has improved even more in his Junior year. His chase% is down to 13.1% and his walk rate has gone up even more to 27.3%. Now this year, Taylor has developed his power-stroke with a hard-hit rate of 51%, and his exit velocity numbers have followed along as well, all hitting career highs. Taylor’s ability to lift the ball has paid dividends to him, and the Clemson squad this year; his GB% is at a career-low 22.9% and his PFB% is at a career-high 20.39%. The outfielder hasn’t hit a ground ball on a fastball this entire year and has a 92% contact rate against fastballs in the zone. Taylor has improved in left field and due to his athletic ability, he could find a home in center field.

19. New York Mets- OF Mike Sirota, Northeastern

In David Stearns first draft with the New York Mets, he selects a Queens, New York native in Mike Sirota. Sirota is a center fielder that does everything well, making him a safe pick for the Mets. He hasn’t gotten off to a great start to the season, specifically his power numbers, but his numbers are beginning to climb back up to his career averages and his numbers underneath the hood are still up to par. His more accomplished tools are his hitting and plate discipline. The league average chase rate in NCAA D-1 right now is 22%, while Sirota is at 12.9%. He’s a good fielder and has above average speed making him stick out in Centerfield. If he can tap back into that power a little bit more, this has the selection to be a steal, or we could see Sirota move up the board.

20. Toronto Blue Jays- C Jacob Cozart, NC State

First catcher off the board and their is a lot to like about the NC State backstop. Cozart has steadily improved through his three years in college. From his freshman year through his junior year, his average exit velocity went from 86.1 MPH to 94.9, Walk%-Strikeout% went from -4% to 9%, and both his barrel and hard hit percentages nearly doubled in both avenues. His bat is coming along nicely for a position where hitting is an added bonus. Cozart grades well enough to continue catching despite his large frame. He doesn’t generate speed, as most catchers don’t, so if his frame prevents him from being a catcher, he might transition to a corner infield role.

21. Minnesota Twins- RHP Trey Yesavage, East Carolina

Unlike Brecht, Yesavage does have the ability to control the zone and only has a walk rate of 7.2%. The right-hander had a 19.6% walk rate his freshman year, but was able to limit that into the 7’s in back to back years. My main theory to that cause was transitioning his standard slider into more of a “gyro-ish” slider. On 131 pitches, he gets hitters to whiff on 67.1% of the time. His fastball gets a whopping 23.2 inches of induced vertical break. He also delivers a changeup and curveball to round out his arsenal. Due to his feel for all of his pitches, I believe it is safe to say the East Carolina pitcher doesn’t have the reliever risk like a couple of other starting pitchers in the first round, and can jump some of the other starters in the draft for that reason.

22. Baltimore Orioles- 3B Billy Amick, Tennessee

The Orioles have selected a position player in the first round in their previous five drafts, so what’s one more added to the bunch? Amick, a Clemson-transfer, has a loud bat reaching exit velocities consistently north of 94 mph. Last year, his max exit velocity was a 115.7 line drive to the left field corner that hopped over the fence due to how hard the corner infielder hit the ball. His hard hit% is 66% on the season, an improvement of his career percentage of 58%. He destroys fastballs, slugging .750 on four-seam fastballs. He has some difficulties against sliders, however he handles curveballs well, so there is potential there for improvement. Originally a first baseman, he has moved to third base for Tennessee, but could move to a corner outfield spot in the future.

23. Los Angeles Dodgers- SS/RHP Bryce Rainer, Harvard-Westlake HS

Two-way player committed to Texas with a powerful bat and a feel for three and possibly even four pitches. He’s more inclined to become a pitcher as he develops more. He throws in the mid-90’s and his frame gives him the chance to reach 100 down the road.

24. Atlanta Braves- RHP Ryan Johnson, Dallas Baptist

The first thing you will notice about Johnson is his unique, quick delivery to keep hitters off-balance. Through 6 games, Johnson is proving to be one of the best arms and is rising dramatically through big boards thanks to his 40.5 strikeout% and and mere 3.2 walk%. He’s a pitcher who pounds the zone who throws his slider more than his main fastball (sinker). He throws his slider 62% of the time compared to his sinker at 21.2%. The best thing and one of the simplest things a pitcher can do is just throw their best pitch more, and Johnson follows that ritual. The Atlanta Braves have selected five pitchers in their last five first round selections.

25. San Diego Padres- OF Slade Caldwell, Valley View HS

Left-handed hitting outfielder committed to play at Ole Miss. Caldwell will have just turned 18 by the time of the 2024 amateur draft, and the San Diego Padres will probably be looking more for upside given their recent transactions dating back to dealing Juan Soto. Due to his frame, he won’t be a slugger, but he has a great hit tool and is range-y enough to stick in centerfield thanks to his athletic ability.

26. New York Yankees- SS Anthony Silva, TCU

The Yankees unloaded a lot of pitching depth in trades for Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo, so Brian Cashman and company might feel pressured in taking a pitcher at 26, however, they haven’t selected a pitcher in the top 30 since they drafted Clarke Schmidt in 2017. Silva is a contact-oriented hitter that whiffs and chases at an average rate. He’s hitting the ball less on the ground which is a good start, but his pull fly ball rate has lowered from 9.17% to 7.39%. Silva is one of the better defensive shortstops in college baseball and is about an average runner, so he should be able to stick at shortstop. If his power grows and he is able to hit about 15 home runs that is a really solid pick and he can provide value to an organization immediately.

27. Philadelphia Phillies- 3B/1B Tommy White, LSU

Arguably his worst season in his collegiate career and he still has a .317 batting average with a .936 OPS. It’s hard not to get excited when you see his exit velocities. His max exit velocity last year was 120.8 MPH and his hardhit% since he transferred to LSU has been 57%. Something to monitor is his 40 percent chase rate against sliders. He is still able to lift the ball against spin, only having a ground ball% of 27.8% against sliders and still has a 94% Z-Contact% against sliders. The corner infielder has played the hot corner for LSU, but I believe he will ultimately transition more into a first baseman.

28. Houston Astros- OF James Tibbs III, Florida State

The Astros have selected a player from college in the first round every year since 2017, and have selected a position player from college in their previous four first round selections, so it is wise to continue the trend here. Tibbs III is a bat first outfielder that might project to become a first baseman as his game matures. There is a lot to like about the offensive side of his game. His Z-Contact% has improved every year, walks more than he strikes out, rarely hits the ball on the ground, and has a 19.16 Pulled Fly ball rate, a perfect combination with his 95.4 average exit velocity and 111.2 maximum exit velocity. The uncertainties of what corner outfield position might drop him out of the first round, but he certainly has a first round bat.

29. Arizona Diamondbacks- C Malcolm Moore, Stanford

Diamondbacks selected a player from Stanford last year, the Diamondbacks select another player from Stanford this year. It doesn’t seem that Arizona has a ton of depth catcher, so taking a hit-first catcher isn’t a bad option here. Moore is excellent in hitting the ball in the air, limiting his ground ball% to only 14.5% with a pulled fly ball% of 27.79%. He has a slight whiff issue with curveballs, but has a career barrel% of 28%. He was better defensively as a catcher last year than this year, but not to the degree that he will be shunned away from the position to play first. His arm strength is somewhat to monitor as the primary reason that he goes behind Cozart.

30. Texas Rangers- RHP William Schmidt, Catholic HS

Committed to LSU, the right handed pitcher has a 55 graded fastball and an elite curveball as the separator between him and other Prep arms. Has command with the fastball, and plus feel for the 3,000 rpm reaching curveball.

Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 65 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50

Thank You for reading!

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2024 MLB Mock Draft 1.0

Written by Ethan Mann