Data with the Yankees Draft
Examining the first 7 pitchers selected by the Yankees in the 2024 draft
Now that the dust has settled, I wanted to use TrackMan data to see how the first seven pitchers fared in my Stuff+, as well as look through pitch movement profiles and pitch characteristics to see what these new prospects can work on. Note: This TrackMan data ended after all Conference tournaments concluded, so this doesn’t include any pitchers outings from the MCWS. This only affected a few pitchers, and there is enough of a sample size to examine their pitch characteristics and grading, however.
A quick synopsis on my Stuff+ model is that I broke it into three different models, similar to the Driveline technique, a model for Fastballs, a model for Off-Speed pitches, and a model for Breaking Balls. I included pitch movements and characteristics for each model, while adding additional relevant statistics to my Off-Speed and Breaking Ball model.
Ben Hess — Alabama (RHP)
The Yankees surprised some people selecting Hess in the back-end of the first round, as the right-hander had about a Round-2 grade, but there is a lot to like about this pick, setting up for what they intended to do in this year’s draft. I’d imagine that they will reach an agreement with him under the expected slot value, but he has Round-1 grade stuff. There are some injury concerns, dating back to his freshman year, but he was able to finish off a full season’s workload. He has a FB/CB/SL mix and sparingly used his ChangeUp. His ability to get pair movement with velocity with all 4 pitches is what should get fans and evaluators excited. Hess has a swing-and-miss fastball, getting nearly 19 inches of Induced Vertical Break with 13 inches of arm-side run, with great Vertical Approach Angle traits measuring at a -4.62 VAA. His FB Stuff+ was 130. He threw a more traditional Slider, and he throws it hard averaging 85 Miles per Hour. He’s able to get about 5" of “sweep” on the offering and it is graded out at 113 Stuff+. He throws a Curveball that has a lot of downard depth measuring at -16.7 inches of iVB and actually measured out better than his slider, at 129 Stuff+. The Alabama draftee only threw 60 Changeups but showed a lot of potential as a finishing touch to compliment his arsenal to attack lefties. He was able to get 15" of HB, and was separated by 9.3 miles per hour from his fastball, a key component in my Stuff+ model. Despite the low usage, his ChangeUp graded out at 111 Stuff+. Ultimately, a big frame with a big arm was the Yankees first selection and set the tone for the remainder of the draft.
Bryce Cunningham — Vanderbilt (RHP)
I don’t want to go too much into this because I actually wrote about Cunningham in my Yankees mock a couple of weeks ago with more information, before one of my accounts of information expired. He’s another big 6'5 pitcher with some health risk and some command issues, but his pitches grade out well, especially his ChangeUp. I actually had to extend the X-axis on the Cunningham’s pitch movement chart just to showcase his elite ChangeUp. He is able to get 20" of Horizontal Break and had 8 MPH separated from his fastball. The pitch graded out to a 127 Stuff+. Out of the first 7 pitchers selected, he had the highest amount of carry on his FB, getting 19.2 inches of ride on the pitch on a sub-6 foot release height delivery. His heater measured out to a 116 Stuff+. A negative about the pitcher is his slider needs some polishing. He is a natural pronator so he isn’t a pitcher who is going to be ripping big sweepers. His slider has 4 inches of glove-side movement, so perhaps his breaking ball is more profiled as a cutter/slutter? The pitch overall graded out to a 109 Stuff+. I think there is a lot of ways he him and the Yankees can tackle his development including maybe attempting to chase a little more horizontal break on his slutter and then developing a cutter with minimal usage. Nonetheless, I’m a big fan of his ready-2 pitches and think he has middle of the rotation upside.
Thatchur Hurd — Louisiana State (RHP)
Out of the 7 pitchers, I think Thatcher Hurd could be the pitcher to fly up through the farm system the fastest. He throws two different breaking balls and both grade out well overall. He’s a natural spinner, getting 2700 RPM’s on his slider, throwing it at 84 MPH. He’s able to get nearly 9 inches of sweep and his release height mirrors the release height of his fastball. The slider measures out to a Stuff+ of 128. The LSU draftees next high-spinning pitch is his Curveball getting 2960 RPM’s and throws it at an extreme 6.36 Release Height. I believe his slider is his best pitch and has the most potential with that pitch, but his Curveball has a 141 Stuff+. His Fastball had a 115 Stuff+ and was able to get 19" of iVB on the heater from a higher release height. Hurd looks to be a supinator, so finding a steady ChangeUp might be an issue for him if he looks to add to his arsenal. I believe Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher, Kyle Nicholas is a reasonable comparison for the 2023 National Champion. Nicholas was an early selection by the Marlins and was a Starter turner Reliever due to control issues.
Gage Ziehl — Miami (RHP)
Drafting two players who could potentially go under-slot allowed the Yankees to nab a near consensus top-100 prospect. He’s been in the Miami Hurricanes rotation since his Sophomore season, and looks to continue to be a back-end of the rotation, depth starter. His Fastball has a 132 Stuff+ and gets 12.5 inches of separation between his iVB and HB. Ziehl’s Fastball has a little cut to it, generating about 5 inches of HB, and has a -4.7 VAA. His breaking ball is a hard thrown slider, and like Hurd, he repeats his delivery well mirroring the release height from his Slider to his Fastball well. It grades out to a 116 Stuff+. Ziehl loves to use his ChangeUp against lefties, and I don’t blame him. It’s an effective pitch getting 18.3 inches of HB, only a couple inches shy of Cunningham’s ChangeUp. The Miami right-hander has a small frame standing at 6'0 tall, so his extension on his Changeup is short, getting 5.6 feet. Overall, the pitch grades out to a 107 Stuff+.
Greysen Carter — Vanderbilt (RHP)
Greysen Carter is an absolute flamethrower. He sits 96–99 on his FB and topped out at 103 during the season. He gets nearly 6.7 feet of extension of his Fastball and delivers it from a high release and close to his body. He induces about 13 inches of iVB, and gets 3 inches of HB. I’m wondering if when he uses a Major League baseball, does his Four-Seam fastball becomes a sinker? I’m wondering if when he uses a Major League baseball, does his Four-Seam fastball becomes a sinker? Besides the point, his heater measures at a 99 Stuff+. He still gets plenty of extension on his ChangeUp getting 13" of iVB and throws it averaging 90 MPH. The Changeup has a 109 Stuff+ to his name. Depending on who you ask, or look to find, it’s difficult to see if Carter throws one or two different breaking balls. According to TrackMan he threw 2 different breaking balls, hence why I included the two of them on his pitch movement chart, but there were only 29 tagged sliders, so I grouped them together as one pitch. It’s like a sweeping curve, getting about 14.7 inches of Horizontal Break and nearly 2500 RPM’s. I think pitch can be classified more as a sweeper, or sweeping curve which could play perfectly off his Fastball. The breaking ball graded out to a 159 Stuff+, the second highest in college baseball only behind Chase Burnes. He doesn’t control it well, so if he can improve his command, that is a serious 1–2 pitch punch. I think he has some serious reliever risk in him. I wanted to compare him to Clay Holmes because of the Sinker/Sweeper combo, but Holmes doesn’t get a lot of extension, so I am thinking maybe more like a Jordan Hicks in the back end of the bullpen.
Griffin Herring — Louisiana State (LHP)
First lefty off the board for the Yankees and he is a two-pitch pitcher. I don’t think he will be a starter for much longer and will transition into the bullpen soon. He has good command and his slider is his best pitch, a 117 Stuff+ offering, but there is a decent amount of release side separation from his Fastball, a potential opportunity for hitters to pick up on the pitch. There is nearly 20 inches of iVB separation from his Fastball, so there is a positive along with his approximately 3.6 inches of sweep. His Fastball is about 92 MPH and had a -5.3 VA to a 98 Stuff+. There isn’t much to say about Herring other than he’s really a two-pitch pitcher based on command. He had a 33 K% and only a 6 BB%, so there is value in his ability to pitch in long relief opportunities. It will be interesting to see if they value him as a starter and try to teach him any sort of Off-Speed pitch.
Wyatt Parliament — Virginia Tech (RHP)
Wyatt Parliament is essentially Griffin Herring, but from the right-side. I actually love his Fastball due to how unique it is. Parliament is another tall Right-Hander, but he throws from a really low release height and still manages to get close to 17 inches of iVB. The Horizontal Break and VAA is eerily similar to first round selection and future teammate, Ben Hess. Hess has 13.2 HB with a -4.62, while Parliament has 13.6 HB with a -4.5 VAA. The pitch grades out to a 119 Stuff+ Fastball. He gets really short extension on his Slider, getting about 5.7" of HB. There is miniscule separation from his release height on his Slider from his Fastball. As a matter of fact, there is a lot of movement separation on his Slider from his Fastball, a potential avenue for effective pitch tunneling. The Slider grades out to a 100 Stuff+, but I think he is able to outperform it by a smidge. It’s obviously a tall task, but if he can develop and grow a third pitch, I think the Virginia Tech draftee can outgrow his draft slot and be a potential depth starter. At the very least, he’s a swing-and-miss reliever with unique FB traits. Abnormal always stands out.
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