Pandora’s Tech — how the pager attack could ignite global chaos
19 September 2024
The pager and cellphone attacks in Lebanon and Syria constitute the most serious act of global terrorism since 9/11. On Tuesday, pagers used by hundreds of Hezbollah members exploded simultaneously, killing at least 12 people, including two children and four hospital workers, and wounding thousands. The following day, Lebanon was rocked by another wave of explosions, this time involving thousands of two-way radios and some cellphones, killing nine and wounding hundreds.
Nobody has yet accepted responsibility, but everyone knows that the attacks were carried out by Israel. The Protocol on Prohibitions or Restrictions on the Use of Mines, Booby-Traps and Other Devices (Amended Protocol II), which is part of the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW), prohibits the indiscriminate use of booby-traps, and requires that they be detectable and designed to minimise harm to civilians. Israel is a signatory to the Protocol, which tells you all you need to know about what Israel thinks of international agreements.
Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah says the group has been dealt a “very hard” blow, describing the attacks as “unprecedented.” Israel’s defenders are celebrating, but their merrymaking is likely to be short lived. The attacks will inevitably trigger a wide range of unintended consequences, both regionally and globally, due to their unprecedented nature and the complexity of the modern geopolitical landscape.
Backlash against Israel
The global community, including some of Israel’s Western allies, has strongly condemned the attacks, particularly given the civilian casualties and the use of unconventional technology. Accusations of war crimes or violations of international law have already arisen, especially due to the collateral damage inflicted on civilians.
Countries that maintain a fragile relationship with Israel, including Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, see the attacks as a massive overreach, and are already reducing diplomatic and economic ties with Israel. NGOs, human rights organisations, and the UN are likely to launch investigations into the use of mobile and cellular technology. Depending on the severity of international condemnation, Israel might face economic sanctions from the EU, UN, or specific countries. This could lead to significant economic strain within Israel, affecting its trade and technological sectors.
The unintended civilian casualties could also provoke domestic protests within Israel, especially among groups advocating for more peaceful relations with neighbouring countries, further deepening political divides in Israeli society.
Techlash and cybersecurity concerns
Governments and populations around the world are panicking at the thought that cellphones, central to everyday life, can be weaponized in this way. Fear is likely to spread, driving distrust in telecommunications companies, and leading to mass changes in consumer behaviour, such as turning off phones, limiting their use, or demanding more secure technologies.
Countries are already scrambling to protect themselves against similar attacks. The coming weeks and months will no doubt see an unprecedented surge in investment in cybersecurity infrastructure, particularly in telecommunications, to prevent such capabilities from being used against other nations or groups. Major tech companies like Apple, Samsung, and Huawei could suffer massive reputational and financial damage, as consumers may lose trust in the security of their devices. There could be calls for more transparency regarding backdoors or vulnerabilities in devices that could be exploited by state actors.
With fears of phone attacks, the global telecommunications industry could face upheaval. There may be a sudden push for hardened or more secure devices, driving up costs for consumers and leading to economic downturns for companies that fail to adapt. Trust in digital communication systems — crucial for financial transactions, social networking, and everyday business — could be severely shaken, and this in turn could disrupt global markets, particularly in tech-reliant sectors such as fintech, e-commerce, and even cryptocurrencies.
Hezbollah and regional militancy
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, addressing Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday, has said the attacks will be met with “just punishment” and vowed that Israel will not be able to return its residents to the north. He did not specify when or how Hezbollah would seek revenge, but it could include a combination of rocket attacks, bombings, and cyber-attacks. Whatever form it takes, Hezbollah’s revenge will escalate the conflict with Israel, further destabilising Lebanon and the surrounding region. Sectarian violence between Hezbollah and other Lebanese factions could intensify, further weakening the Lebanese government and driving the country toward civil unrest.
Militant groups in the Middle East, including non-state actors affiliated with Hezbollah or opposed to Israel, will also retaliate, and not only against Israel; Israeli interests abroad will also be targeted, leading to a resurgence in terrorist activity in Europe, North America, and beyond. Suicide bombings will once again become a regular feature of life in Israel and her allies.
The attack could also provoke regional powers like Iran or Syria to respond more aggressively, possibly dragging other nations into a broader Middle Eastern conflict. Iran will probably increase its support for Hezbollah and other anti-Israel and anti-US militias in Iraq. Countries with significant interests in the region, such as the US, Russia, or China, could be drawn into the conflict, leading to heightened global tensions. If Israel’s actions are seen as destabilising, these global powers might intervene diplomatically or even militarily.
Escalation of warfare and technology races
The attacks will inevitably spark a new global arms race, with countries rushing to develop similar capabilities. Governments may invest heavily in offensive cyber-warfare programs, creating a new era of digital weapons development that parallels the nuclear arms race during the Cold War.
There is also the risk that the targeting of civilians in cyber warfare will become increasingly normalised. Other states and non-state actors will increasingly feel emboldened to target civilian infrastructure with digital warfare, blurring the lines between military and civilian targets. This will generate pushback from the UN and international NGOs, who might tighten legislation governing the use of such technology in warfare, potentially leading to international laws or treaties banning the use of digital weapons that target civilians. More generally, the attacks are certain to reignite ethical debates on the role of advanced technologies in modern conflict. Philosophers, policymakers, and international bodies will need to grapple with the moral implications of using technologies like SMS-triggered explosions, especially given the difficulty in preventing civilian harm.
In sum, while the initial goal of targeting Hezbollah members might be seen as a military success for Israel, the long-term fallout is likely to create far-reaching and destabilising consequences. At the very least, the regional balance of power, global security, the tech industry, and international law will all be deeply impacted by the attacks. At worst, they could prove to be the spark that ignites a wider regional war that draws in Iran, the United States, and possibly even China and Russia. By committing this unprecedented act of global terrorism, Israel has truly opened Pandora’s box. From now on, all bets are off.
