Transwomen Sexual Offenders — a Closer Analysis of MoJ Statistics

Sep 14, 2018 · 9 min read

Male-Pattern Offending & Female-Pattern Offending

Co-locate #male #transwomen in male prisons until you have the stats!

Using HMGovt figures for trans people 200–500K (approximation 2/3 transwomen): by the 133K figure transwomen sexually offend more than bio-logical males, by the 333K transwomen sexually offend at half of male sexually offending rates but female women at 1/100th of male sexual offending.

Surprise 1: 95% UK Prison Estate is for Male Inmates

I was surprised to learn that only 5% of the UK prison estate is ‘assigned’ to female inmates, with the remaining 95% reserved for male inmates. With the Karen White furore ‘transgender rapist transferred to women’s jail’ and the BBC Reality Check FoI request about transgender prisoners and James Kirkup’s scathing commentary on that, I decided to apply Cost Engineering analytical skills to the mix and capture that in a single graphic.

95% of convicted prison inmates are male, 5% female (2017 & 2018)

According to Ministry of Justice statistics , 30 June 2018 [1] the prison inmate population 95.4% of is male and 4.46% is female and the provision of prisons wrt bio-logical sex, reflects this with 95% prison estate assigned to male inmates and 5% assigned to female inmates. No-one is suggesting that male and female prisoners should be accommodated in the same mixed prison estate. [It was William Allen, a Quaker colleague of Elizabeth Fry who told the Russian Tsar in 1819, that his prisons must be sex-segregated due to the rape and sexual violence they were subjected to by both male prisoners and guards. Tsar Alexander I was sensible enough to listen!]

Sexual offending inmates as a proportion of total inmate population

@BBCRealityCheck take note: Males commit 99.1% of sexual offences, only 128 female inmates in total

99.1% of the inmates convicted for sexual offences are male and 95% of the ‘Violence against the Person’ are male (a phrase mentioning Sherlock comes to mind). For males the single largest offence group is sexual offences with 19.4% of the total of male prison population. Conversely, the 128 female sexual offenders (were they offending by themselves, the 1ary offender?) represent 3.95% of the female inmate population.

Male prisons which imprison male inmates with male-pattern violent offending, are by definition full of violent males, with such violence currently escalating and the subject of much public discussion with Rory Stewart MP, the Minister on BBC Question Time (13 Sept 2018) [2]. Frances Crook of The Howard League for Penal Reform, one of UK’s leading authorities on the (UK) prison system, also stated “I’ve not heard of transmen being sent to men’s (male) prisons, they simply would not be safe.” [8] The absence of such an eventuality reaching the headlines speaks to both the blinding stupidity of placing transmen in male prisons but also to the fact that only 1 in every 20 inmates is bio-logically female.

Another truth for female inmates is that they have higher than average for having been subjected to rape and other sexual & domestic violence/abuse (1 in 5 women >16 years and plenty more abused only as girl children). It may even be that such economic crimes derive directly from reduced economic circumstances due to the chaos caused in their lives.

A #MeToo teacher calculated that her early exit from the teaching profession has cost her in excess of £3/4M from the career she would otherwise have had. [For completion: a BBC Woman’s Hour contributor stated the 1 in 5 women figure of the Rape Crisis of England & Wales [4] and a comparative figure of 1 in 70 for men who had experienced rape. The Survivors Trust work to a 5:1 ratio of girls: boys raped or otherwise sexually abused as children. [4b]]

That is the more impressive for the fact that fewer than 2% of rapes result in a conviction Less than 2% rapes result in a conviction.” [5].

Surprise 2: Most transwomen retain male genitalia

@sandydrawsbadly — a classic!

Most transwomen retain male genitalia. Another surprise of the Gender Recognition debate was,(including this recipient of the 1st British honour for LGBT), including the specific anatomy whose unique anatomical function is subject to specific legislation wrt penetration without consent ie Rape. Indeed the 2011 Transgender Discrimination Survey[3] tends to confirm this stating that 33% of transgender people had ‘surgically transitioned’, ie the other 67%, ie the majority of transwomen retain male genitalia.

BBC Reality Check made an FoI Request to the MoJ (13 Aug 2018)

BBC R4 Reality Check finding of 60 sexual offending transwomen out of 125 giving a comparative figure of 48% [6] is probably higher than it ought to be (due to transwomen under-disclosing while in prison?) but suggests at minimum that transwomen (who are women?) share male-pattern sexually offending characteristics of bio-logical males and nowhere near that of females.

So how do we get closer to understanding these figures? We know the population of England & Wales in 66M thuse we know that 33M males are generating 13,452 inmates as a result of a conviction for sexual offending and that 33M females generate 128. The HMGovt info-sheet explaining ‘transgender’ estimates that there are 200–500K transgender people (in UK not England & Wales so 59M/66M)who generated 60 sexual offenders. I have guestimated 2/3 of transgender people are transwomen of 200K = 133K * 59/66 =119 and 2/3 of 500K *59/66=298K, (if there are fewer transwomen it makes the offending incidence worse).

The 1st calculation is to divide the total population of males and females by the number of male and female sexual offenders respectively. Then use both the lower and higher estimates of transwomen. It then seems to be reasonable to take male sexual offending as the benchmark thus divide all results by the 2453 figure.

Comparison with population estimates: 33M males > 13,452 sexual offenders and 33M females generate 128… 119K or 298K transwomen generate 60 sexual offenders

The 119K transwomen population generates a 9/10th of male sexual offending inmates, the higher figure half the sexual offending of male prisoners but… crucially this calculation shows that female sexual offending is 100th of male sexual offending inmates.

A long-term follow-up Swedish study (2011) of ‘transsexuals’ after Sex Reassignment surgery suggests that transwomen (without male genitalia = after sex-reassignment surgery) had the same pattern of criminality as the bio-logically male control. While transmen have a slightly elevated incidence of offending but only when compared to the far lower female pattern offending of other bio-logical females.[7] One can imagine additional testosterone might be implied.

No Surprise: Male-pattern Offending is violent, Female-Pattern Offending is of an economic nature

Returning to the remaining stats: The MoJ list according to crime group committed by ALL inmates, (female & male combined), which is highly questionable given the very different offending patterns involved. I re-ordered the crime type by the female percentage and a spooky thing happened, I looked at the male percentage & it was the exact opposite.

Male-pattern offending is overwhelmingly violent offences (non-violent offences not jailed?) but the offences of women tend to the economic (and less harmful to other human beings)

The arrows in the diagram highlight that male-pattern offending is almost 20 times female offending (assuming sentencing is fair) and very much oriented towards violent crime (or crime which could generate harm to human beings) and female-pattern crime is of an economic nature. When you do it like that you find the single highest offence group is… sexual violence, why conceal that? (The numbers to the left indicate the MoJ sequencing).

BBC R4 Reality Check programme are anxious to say that the 125 transgender inmates are of unknown bio-logical sex but list the sexual offences involved in the convictions of those inmates. 27 rape and 5 attempted rape, a crime defined by the singular and unique piece of male genitalia, thus at least 32 of the 60 are transwomen with male genitalia. MoJ states 99.1% of sexual offences are committed by males. Is anyone imagining, with all the public discussion (and transphobia) that we wouldn’t have heard of transmen being convicted of sexual offences? I suspect that the full total of 60 is transwomen ie males and applying 99.1% to 60, leaves you with … 60.

27 actual + 5 attempted rapes ie crimes of unique bio-logically male genitalia — the top table tells us that 99.1% of crimes of sexual violence are committed by males [6]

James Kirkup’s suspicion of 15 August 2018 in The Spectator “Is the BBC scared of the Transgender Debate?” is therefore borne out by the statistics.

Surprise 3: Transwomen with GR Certs go direct to Female Prison — with no risk assesment? Really?

I was startled to hear Victoria Derbyshire say “Of course, those with a Gender Recognition certificate automatically go to the female prison estate….”. [8b] Thus, the programme was not referring to them at all, nor to the fact that even now a GR certificate of a transwomen does not imply that they do not have male genitalia. It also implied there was no question of any risk assessment for them, which, given the Swedish long-term follow-up study of surgically completed transsexuals (above) may not be a smart move[7].


There is no question that transwomen are likely to be more subject to such violence due to ‘transphobia’ of other inmates but examination of the relevant statistics makes it far from clear that housing them in the 5% of female UK Prison Estate is the answer.

Self ID-ing #transwomen: need risk assessments

GR Certified #transwomen: need risk assessments

Transsexual women without male genitalia

Any transwomen with or without male genitalia, with or without a Gender Recognition Certificate needs a FULL risk assessment before transfer into the female prison estate. I might make an exception for transsexual women ie minus male genitalia but with no violent offending whatsoever and not on remand for a crime against the person.


why not do the obvious and co-locate them within the 95% UK Prison Estate devoted to bio-logical males?

Clare B Dimyon MBE [LGBT]

MSc (with distinction) Cost Engineering of Composite Aerospace Components

Application of Numerical Analysis to Known Differences of male-pattern offending in transwomen wrt Women (bio-logical females) & female-pattern offending in transmen wrt men (bio-logical males)

What the experts say:

4 June 2018 The Times: Andrea Albutt, President of the Prison Governors Assn (June 2018): “I have seen women feeling very threatened by transgender (transwomen) prisoners’ presence. Women prisoners are very vulnerable.” Kaya Burgess [9]

4 June 2018 The Times: Frances Crook of The Howard League for Penal Reform, 1 of UK’s leading authorities on prison system: is worried that ‘some men with a history of extreme violence & sexual violence against women have found new way of exercising aggression towards women’. Kaya Burgess [10]

8 Sept 2018 The Times: The British Psychological Society : “psychologists working with forensic patients are aware of a number of cases where men convicted of sex crimes have falsely claimed to be transgender females for a number of reasons” Janice Turner [11] [11]

20 Aug 2015 Dr James Barrett President of the British Assn of Gender ID Specialists in written evidence to Maria Miller MP as Chair of the Women & Equalities Select Comm. 20 Aug 2015: To those of us who actually interview sexual offenders: a no of reasons a prisoner might trans-ition. A plethora of prison intelligence suggesting that the driving force was a desire to make subsequent sexual offending very much easier.


[1] MoJ 30 June 2018

[2] BBC Question Time Rory Stewart MP Minister for Prisons 13 Sept 2018

[3] 2011 Transgender Discrimination Survey: 2011 UK #Transgender Discrimination Survey found 33% said they *had* surgically transitioned ie 67% have not.

[4] Rape Crisis (England & Wales): Statistics

[4b] Fay Maxted OBE The Survivors Trust

[5] 1.1–1.8% Rape Results in Conviction: Legal System means men Rape with near immunity:

[6] BBC R4 Reality Check

[7] Long-Term Follow-Up of Transsexual Persons Undergoing #Biological Sex Reassignment Surgery: Cohort Study in Sweden

[8] James Kirkup 15 Aug 2018 The Spectator:

[8b] Victoria Derbyshire LIVE: …

[9] The Times: Prison Govenors Fight Trans Inmates in Women’s Jails

[10] The Times: Prison Govenors Fight Trans Inmates in Women’s Jails

[11] The Times: Trans Rapists are a Danger in Women’s Jails

[12] Hansard: 20 Aug 2015: President of British Gender ID Specialists :

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