Exploring the Future
Hillary and Norgay summited. Curie isolated isotopes. Shackleton’s expedition reached the Farthest South. Armstrong stepped. We often view the results of exploration as noteworthy historical accomplishments, and of course retrospection is a natural lens. We can also consider the process and mindset of exploration as a proactive means of identifying and pursuing opportunities.
In the 15th century, with a kingdom under siege and great uncertainty about the year ahead, Queen Isabella I allocated a tiny fraction of her treasury to a single sea voyage — about the amount regularly spent on hosting a visiting royal. Several other potential benefactors, each safe and comfortable, rejected the risky expedition proposals, but it seems that the Queen had a different view of cost and potential benefits (evaluated while under attack).
History now shows that she did not fund “travel,” she funded an exploratory voyage in a general direction. The crisis, truly at her gates, brought both urgency and clarity of mission.
Exploration can be advantageous or even critical in times of rapid change and great uncertainty, and there is little doubt that we are experiencing such times today. Even before our current global pandemic, we were in times of rapid technological change and great business uncertainty.
Now, with uncertainty at our gates, we must do more than “travel.” We must Explore.
Exploration and Travel
“Travel” is getting to where you know or think you want or need to be. Travel, whether to Yellowstone in the family wagon or the launch of a new product, involves careful plans, strategic insights, contingency scenarios, focused travelers, allocated budgets, and other well-known elements. In business, this is often characterized by a sharp focus on fundamentals like quarterly financial results, the launch of new products or services, and/or expansion into new markets. In the context of global business operations, these activities are often driven to success by internal teams.
Exploration, clearly, isn’t traveling. Explorers tend to get quickly to the edge of what is known, then continue to push ahead. The European’s New World, the South Col of Everest, and Tranquility Base were all far beyond areas that had ever been visited. Carefully assembled Exploration teams used every existing tool they could, but also created many new ones — purely out of necessity. Their focus on a bold goal was what drove impressive timelines, supporting resources, flexible processes, and ultimately success. “We’ve always done it this way” or “this is our playbook” are words of a traveler, not an Explorer.
Explorers proclaim, “I’d like to understand what is over the horizon.”
An Exponentially Widening Gap
Now, as we approach the middle part of the 21st century, it has become clear that the growth of business opportunities created by rapidly emerging technologies has become exponential in nature. In some cases, far exceeding exponential curves. The “edge” of technology is an ever-moving target and, if we stand still, it moves, ever faster and further away from us.
Since World War II, many of the world’s great companies have focused on operational efficiencies which incrementally, and steadily, grow bottom lines and shareholder value. Improvements over time in these areas tend to grow logarithmically. The gap between this valuable improvement curve and exponential technological progress starts out small but continues to widen.[1]
This widening gap has profound implications across dozens of industries. How can automotive or medical equipment companies attempt to understand and leverage the impact of consumer-grade low earth orbit satellites? Or, more importantly, the truly global imaging and internet access they will provide? And in parallel, drive R&D across other efforts enabled by rapidly emerging deep technology — some of which will be critical to their growth strategy?
Exploration Teamwork And the Explorers’ Mindset
Our experience has taught us that the successful Exploration of highly emergent technology areas requires two key elements.
First: a well-suited Exploration team. A team made up of several specialists, each with their own areas of expertise and insight, but sharing a common goal. Exploring ocean depths wouldn’t work with a team of only doctors or only submarine pilots — some of each is advisable. Further, each team member should learn and apply the Explorers’ Mindset.
One of curiosity, of entrepreneurial use and creation of tools, and of synthesis — driving relentlessly towards understanding & building within the unknown.
And second, a creative and proven method that acknowledges that Exploration isn’t turning a wrench on a predictable process. Exploration teams come from a huge variety of backgrounds — art and design to anthropology and physics. By encouraging dozens of Explorers to pursue their curiosities, we all benefit. Even more so when this is done as facilitated theme-focused teams.
Foundational to our own group of Explorers is the simple notion that there is a world of difference between someone who says “I explored…” and a team who together says:
We are Exploring.
…which areas of business and technology do you think we should explore?
“Wanted: For hazardous journey. Small wages, bitter cold, long months of complete darkness, constant danger, safe return doubtful. Honour and recognition in case of success.”
- Sir Ernest Shackleton
“Now is the time to understand more, so we may fear less.”
- Dr. Marie Curie
The author, Amish Parashar, is a founder & CEO of Explorers’ Lab. His leadership of innovation methods includes “design thinking” as a Lecturer at Stanford’s d.school, and “exponential technologies” as a Faculty Member at Singularity University. Previously he was a founder of a corporate venture capital firm and fund.
[1] Scott Brinker’s Martec’s Law describes this succinctly.
