Volatility
When evaluating casino games, Return to Player (RTP) is only one part of the equation. While RTP represents the overall expected value or long-term payback percentage, volatility measures the risk along that journey. This metric quantifies the fluctuations in bankroll or deviation around the statistical expectations.
High-volatility games have more extreme swings of luck — both in hitting heavy losses as well as massive wins. Low volatility options tend to produce results much closer to the stated RTP over shorter periods. Properly understanding volatility allows players to choose games aligned with their risk tolerance and bankroll management strategies.
Slots
Slot games offer one of the widest ranges of volatility among casino verticals. Classic 3-reel slots with basic pay tables and frequent small hits exhibit low volatility. The lower unpredictability makes it easier to continuously regrind your bankroll towards the expected RTP value.
On the polar opposite are highly volatile progressive jackpot slots featuring infrequent but potentially enormous payouts. Megaway and similar extended Ways to Win slots also skew towards high volatility due to the complexity of lining up premium symbol combinations.
In the middle ground are most standard video slots walking the line between too predictable and too swingy. Volatility often scales with payline counts, bonus features, and maximum winnings on the paytable. However, math models can tune the slot volatility across a wide spectrum to deliver a targeted experience.
Quantifying Slot Volatility
Game developers will measure slot volatility over both the short-term and long-run using statistical metrics:
- Standard deviation: The dispersion or variance in returns over x number of spins
- Probability of premature bankruptcy: Likelihood of going broke before hitting target RTP
- Risk of extended losses: Chances of experiencing a cold streak of y spins or higher
- Hit frequency: How often the game delivers a win, even if small
Higher standard deviations and more probable long-losing streaks equate to higher volatility slots that require larger starting bankrolls to ride out swings. Those prioritizing lower risks may opt for games with low volatility reflected in tighter standard deviations closer to the RTP.
Roulette’s Built-In Volatility Ranges
Roulette wagering options showcase inherent volatility differences even before accounting for stakes and probability quirks. Simply betting on red/black or even/odd numbers produces fairly low volatility play under standard European rules.
But wagers like straight-up bets on single numbers offer massive 35:1 payouts — accompanied by far higher volatility and risks of ruin. A similar relationship exists between the tamer outside bets and the higher volatility of corner, street, or line wagers.
Ultimately, European roulette’s generous 97.3% RTP offsets the volatility somewhat compared to American double-zero versions. But even within each variant, the volatility quotient depends largely on how extreme of bets you place over time.
Video Poker
Video poker, especially the full-pay variants like 9/6 Jacks or Better, rewards players who leverage optimal strategy to reduce outcome volatility. By always making the mathematically best hold/discard decisions, you can keep results much closer to the stated 99%+ RTP.
However, if you deviate from the perfect basic strategy, the volatility rises dramatically. Going for desperation draws instead of playing fundamentally sound choices amplifies the chances of large downswings and missed returns.
Volatility in video poker also correlates to the overall game returns. The more frequent pay and higher RTP of games like Double Double Bonus produce lower volatility than their less favorable Bonus Poker counterparts.
Monitoring and adjusting your video poker strategy in real time can turn some of the highest RTP games into lower volatility options compared to playing them blindly. The strategic choices available give players more control over the risk levels.
Table Games
Most table game volatility discussions center around the specific bets employed and any advantage playing techniques. For example, basic blackjack strategy significantly depresses volatility versus going on hunches alone.
But another interesting volatility dynamic is betting systems and progressions. Whether it’s Oscar’s Grind or the infamous Martingale system, precisely increasing or decreasing bets in a defined cadence can meaningfully impact the outcome swings.
The Martingale’s aggressive bet doubling when losing produces high volatility situations where you rapidly deplete or massively spike your bankroll. Conversely, betting progressions like Oscar’s Grind that minimize bet sizes after losses constrain volatility at lower bankroll levels.
Other popular systems like Fibonacci, Labouchere, and D’Alembert all have unique volatility signatures based on the speed and size of bet fluctuations.
While no betting system can overcome the house edge, they enable players to use staked liability versus reward ratios to select their preferred volatility zone alongside basic strategy decisions.
Jackpot Potential and Volatility
Beyond the inherent game mathematics and bet spreads, progressive jackpots at either the game or casino-wide level seriously amplify volatility in otherwise tame games.
For example, Caribbean Stud Poker and Let It Ride feature relatively low RTP and volatility under standard rules. But adding in million-dollar progressive payouts for hitting the premium hand dramatically increases outcome deviations.
The promise of supersized wins comes with much higher probabilities of repeated smaller losses while grinding to reach that rare event. Side bets to access jackpots in table games like Three Card Poker mimic the volatility uptick.
Navigating Casino Volatility
As with RTP, casinos must follow regulatory standards in publishing accurate volatility metrics and disclosures. Testing labs validate both return statistics through simulation and techniques like using the Dopri5, Klassen, or Xilo models to calculate standard deviations.
Armed with the RTP and volatility for each casino game, players can better align with their preferred balance of entertainment and expectations. Higher volatility fans may embrace the thrill of riding swings toward huge scores.
While more conservative gamblers may sacrifice potential upside for lower volatility grind and smoother bankroll curves. Understanding and leveraging this key characteristic separates the wisest players from blindly chasing wins or losses.
