Here’s Why Russia’s Absolutely Desperate to End the War in Ukraine!
Due to the lack of reliable statistics from Russia since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, the estimates in this summary have been compiled from multiple sources. These figures have been manually averaged using data from 2000 to 2022, and supplemented with the most recent available information for 2024, to provide the most realistic estimate possible.
Russia has an average of 31,652 deaths annually attributed to alcoholism. Calculated based on data provided by RAND Policy Analysis and Oxford Academic.
Russia’s traffic fatalities average 26,392 a year. Calculated based on data sourced from WHO reports and the IRF World Road Statistics (World Health Organization (WHO) .
The average annual number of suicides in Russia is approximates 37,946. Calculated based on data from the World Health Organization (WHO) and various other sources, that’s about 25 per 100K, on par with Lithuania and South Korea, the two known nations for high suicide rates.
Gathering data on deaths attributed to substance abuse in Russia is particularly challenging due to the wide range of estimates, varying from 20,000 to 55,000 depending on the estimation method. Even using the most conservative figures, the average annual death toll from drug usage in Russia would still amount to no less than 30,000.
If this figure is accurate, as reported by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), Russia’s homicide rate stood at 7.3 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2020, marking a significant decline from 30.7 in 2002. However, even if we assume UNODC relies on data from the Russian Federal State Statistics Service for this figure, the most conservative estimate of annual deaths attributed to violent crimes cannot be lower than 10,512.
The HIV-associated mortality rate in Russia amounts to at least 26,640. The National Institute for Health (NIH) writes on their websites that “Our analysis revealed that the HIV-associated mortality rate for male individuals increased from 0.2 per 100 000 in 2000 to 18.5 per 100 000 in 2018”. The original source is the Russian Fertility and Mortality database (RusFMD) and the authors’ calculations.
According to an aggregate from Statista and Rosstat, the mortality rate in Russia was estimated at 12.9 deaths per thousand population in 2022, likely slightly higher now but for consistency, we’ll maintain this figure. This equates to approximately 1,857,600 deaths annually. Concurrently, with Russia’s current birth rate of 11.108 births per 1,000 people, the total number of births amounts to 1,631,376 babies per year. The difference between deaths and births results in a net loss of 226,224 individuals annually, primarily due to the aging population and low fertility rates.
Since the beginning of the invasion in February 2022, Ukraine estimates that Russia has lost approximately 530,000 people as of mid-June 2024. Excluding deaths attributed to pro-Russian Ukrainians mobilized by force, the figure stands at a minimum of 250,000 deaths. However, a more reliable estimate suggests an average of 1,000 daily deaths on the front lines going forward, totaling around 365,000 deaths annually. Out of these, 300,000 are expected to be Russian nationals, as the number of remaining pro-Russian Ukrainians and foreign mercenaries has declined significantly.
Between 2022 and 2024, an average of up to 920,000 people emigrated from Russia, leading to their exclusion from Levada’s polls. The reliability of Levada Center has been compromised by Kremlin influence. According to Western sources, approximately 1.5 million people left Russia in 2023 alone. Looking ahead, a conservative estimate suggests that at least 1 million people annually may continue to emigrate from Russia, largely influenced by the ongoing war.
Excluding deaths in prisons and other circumstances, the table above highlights that one of the most significant consequences of the invasion of Ukraine is the substantial emigration of educated Russians (59% of the total demographic loss). Many of these individuals might have supported Putin’s aggressive policies initially, had he swiftly subdued Ukraine without triggering severe sanctions and jeopardizing Russia’s long-term socio-economic stability.
Russia’s total population decline is expected to worsen due to a projected increase in battlefield casualties once Ukrainians deploy fighter jets, coupled with a rise in emigration driven by the acknowledgment of Russia’s declining position in the war, while assuming the birth rate isn’t much lower than reported and won’t decline drastically due to high male attrition rates. The TOTAL figure is quite likely to reach up to 2 million individuals annually, prompting Russia to inevitably withdraw from Ukraine sooner than later.
