What Satellite Pictures Can Show us about Russian Forces near Ukraine — The Example of Millerovo
Satellite pictures have been extensively used by those following the Ukrainian conflict and especially Russia’s role in this conflict. Updated on an irregular basis on Google Earth, they helped prove that Russia had fired on Ukraine from its territory (something that had already been suspected for a long time thanks to post by Russian soldiers themselves). They showed the emergence of Russian base camps in the countryside near the Ukrainian border on several occasions. Combined with the research and analysis of User Generated Content (UGC), especially photos from social accounts, they are a major tool for geolocalization activities, and for confirming assessments made through the analysis of photos or videos.
Satellite pictures were not used for our article about Russian forces in Millerovo, which focused exclusively on data gathered on social accounts of Russian soldiers. However, Google recently released new satellite imagery of the airbase. Combined with previous pictures, they give an interesting idea of the extent of the Russian’s army presence in this base located 20km from the Ukrainian border, as well as confirming the assessments made in our previous article.
The Millerovo Airbase, from June 2014 to March 2015
For reference, this is a satellite picture of the base in June 2014:
Nothing particularly noticeable : around 40 warplanes are visible on the photos, and not much else. Much more interesting is the imagery of the same place dating from September 2014
The picture is already very different. A very high number of military vehicles can be seen parked (red rectangles). In the rectangle n°1, there are around 70 tanks and APCs, and around 90 trucks. In the rectangle n°2, we can count about 60 armored vehicles and 20 trucks.
We can also note a number of tents that weren’t there on the previous picture (yellow squares).
There were therefore a considerable amount of force in this area, 20 km from the Ukrainian border, in September of last year. It should be noted that this satellite picture was taken a few weeks (days?) after the august separatist offensive, widely believed to have been supported or even lead by Russian regular forces, which pushed the Ukrainian forces back and prevented them from ending the conflict. Though there are no proofs that troops pictured of this satellite imagery participated in the conflict, we identified in our previous article at least one unit, present at the beginning of 2015 in Millerovo and which was previously identified as one of the unit who fought in Ukraine in August 2014.
The most recent satellite imagery, uploaded at the end of the month of March 2015, show some very interesting differences:
There are some major differences between this picture, taken in March 2015, and the previous one. Following are those we identified.
More tents, less vehicles
The most obvious difference is the number of tents that appeared in the middle of the base. We counted 85 tents in the center area (rectangle n°1). At the same time, the number of vehicles is greatly reduced compare to what we could see in September. They are almost all located in a single area (rectangle n°2), with around a hundred tanks, APCs and trucks visible.
A recent departure
The satellite picture clearly shows that the number of troops located there used to be much higher, and that a good part of them left a short time before the picture was taken.
Simply by counting the marks left on the ground, it is possible to say that there was at least 70 more tents in the rectangle n°1, at least 30 vehicles in the rectangle n°2, 75 vehicles in the rectangle n°3 and a dozen tents in the rectangle n°4.
It is not possible to say with certainty where those vehicles and installations went. However, we noted in our last article (which was posted at around the same time that those satellite pictures were uploaded) that two of the three units we identified seemed to have left Millerovo at the end of March, to go back to their home base.
We cannot exclude that some of the vehicles were sent to Ukraine, though we cannot prove it either. However, the fact that, along with the vehicles, a high number of tents “disappeared” is a hint that the soldiers who lived in them were sent back to their bases.
A new installation
One particularly interesting difference is the appearance, in the March imagery, of an installation 2 kilometers south of the main base that was not there in September.
Though we believe the installation to be military and to be linked to the airbase (the layout is very similar to other Russian military installations), we can’t say what it is, or why it was located in such isolation to the main base.
The analysis of satellite pictures can therefore reveal a lot, especially when compared to older satellite pictures and when used to confirm or discard information obtained through other means. In our case, the satellite pictures not only confirmed the presence of an important Russian force in the first months of 2015, but allowed us to obtain a much clearer idea of the size of this force, and even of its movement. Indeed, the marks left on the ground by tents and vehicles allow us to say that part of the units present in Millerovo left the base in late February or in March.
