Accelerating change: diesel-air
Its happened to us all. You’re walking along quietly, suddenly a bus or truck accelerates, you jump, inhale and then cough out the diesel fumes. Really bad for your health; stunts children’s brains, worsens asthma, carcinogenic…
The contrast with the fresh, sweet, sometimes salty coastal air I’m breathing on my daily walk along the English coast is stark. (I’m walking 3,500 miles round the coast of England and Wales to raise awareness about eliminating cervical cancer. See www.3500toendit.com.) Sometimes I have to veer inland where there’s no coastal path. Suddenly I’m back into diesel-air. You know what its like when you’re in an elevator with someone who smokes. Your senses twitch.
But it doesn’t need to be like this; nothing is immutable.
For those of us brought up in the 1970s/1980s, we could never have imagined a world without cigarette smoke everywhere. And yet, within 20 years, smoking went from cool to sad. Legislation and taxation helped, yes, but social mores changed. And really fast. Becoming a social outcast is a more serious threat to most people than the prospect of a fine.
Back to diesel fumes. There are signs of the beginnings of change. Mayors of some major European cities are designing schemes to tax or ban diesel vehicles. Buses powered by batteries are beginning to appear. Drivers of diesel-powered trains and buses have been advised not to idle their engines. One reason given for Nissan’s recent decision not to continue building its X-Trail vehicle in Sunderland was falling demand for diesel vehicles. Indeed sales of diesel vehicles in Europe fell by 16% in the first half of 2018, compared to 2017. And the share of diesels among total sales in Europe plummeted from 45% to 36% over the same period. Furthermore battery prices are falling: between 2014 and 2016 battery prices for electric vehicles fell by around 50%.
So a combination of further cost reductions in batteries and regulation/taxation in major cities may change the economics of vehicle production such that within 15–20 years most new buses and trucks will be electric. This change could happen faster if society signals that air pollution arising from diesel is no longer acceptable — for health reasons. Air pollution is the “new tobacco,” says the Director-General of the World Health Organization. He warned that the simple act of breathing is killing 7 million people a year and harming billions more. But change will need a lot more than Dr Tedros’ words. Will the US Surgeon-General announce that diesel fumes are dangerous? Will people start to pressure their local bus company to switch to electric vehicles? Will Amazon stipulate that its goods should be delivered via electric-powered vehicles? Will it become socially awkward to buy a diesel powered car? Will the rankings of cities as places to live include their approach to diesel vehicles? These would be the signs of a tipping point, of the decline of diesel reaching the steep part of the S-curve. Its quite possible, but this social transformation hasn’t really taken off yet.
Imagine this. One day a child will ask: what’s that funny smell? Well, you’ll say, there was this stuff called diesel…
Each of us can nudge social mores along. And end up healthier. For ourselves, our children and the environment.
