Coronavirus in Latin America II
Venezuela: politics and decay
Coronavirus in Latin America II
Venezuela: politics and decay
The pandemic has been a blessing for the Maduro’s Regime. The Venezuelan dictator has been able to further his political agenda. Although the situation has been very volatile, Maduro’s forces have further the division of Venezuelan democratic forces. Also, to continue the delegitimization push against President Juan Guaido as the country leader. Lastly, Maduro has masked the country’s gasoline crisis behind strict quarantine measures, while increasing control over the population.
Opposition in disarray.
Before the global spread of the virus in the Americas, the Venezuelan opposition chief by President Juan Guaido was able to gain momentum after a somewhat successful international tour. After meeting with most of the Western democracies leaders, Mr. Guaido was able to recapture some of his popular support. Although, shorter-lived Mr. Guaido’s agenda was a clear attempt to reactivate political-oriented protest in the nation.
On March 10, Mr. Guaido sought to ignite a new wave of political-oriented protest after a relatively large concentration, demanding that Mr. Maduro abandon the presidential office. However, on March 13, with only 2 cases in the country, Mr. Maduro impose strict quarantine measures. These premature and strict social distancing measures seemed to have served, reducing the spread of the virus. Nonetheless, politically speaking, it came handy for Maduro. Using the coronavirus as a credible alibi, Maduro limited any opposition’s aspiration to force a political change with internal pressure.
With a country in suspense and with fewer posible options for the democratic opposition, they have turned into their second ( and sometimes first) favorite enemy. Themselves.
The divisions and rivalities within the Venezuelan opposition are evident and well-known. The rise and -possible- fall of Mr. Guaido has only exacerbated them. The attempt to transform the 2019 push into a long-run strategy has proven unsuccessful and most likely unsustainable, without further legitimization. Negotiations are inevitable for the return of Democracy. Thus to secure a better position in the table, the opposition most remind credibly and primarily unify.
Although scarcely study, this Self-cannibalism tendency is widespread in opposition under Regimes transitioning from Illiberal democracies to Authoritarian. Examples of this behavior can be found in Bolivia, Russia, and Hungry, among others. One of the causes could be the so-called political dumping.
Gasoline into the crisis
While the opposition continues fighting its demons, Maduro’s regime remains steady into masking another crisis. The gasoline crisis.
The fact is that there is not enough gasoline to supply the demand in Venezuela, the country with the largest oil reserves. The cause: decades of subsidized prices, Government monopoly over production, distribution, and commercialization, plus the recorded managerial inefficiency of the last to decades. Yes, economic sanctions made it more difficult to produce or import gasoline, but the responsibility solely remained under Maduro’s shoulder. Venezuela should have never let their oil refinery capability decay in such a manner.
A gasoline crisis could have the potential to further the chaos in the country and halt the reduced, but remaining economic activity . Whereas Venezuela fails short to fit into the academic definition of a failed state, it is under its way to becoming one. The gasoline crisis is one example of that.
Control over the territory
There is no doubt that Maduro’s Regime is a shame for Venezuela and the region as a whole. However, the Venezuelan elite he represents still has control over the territory and the people. Mr. Maduro’s response to the Coronavirus epidemic has been imposed and generally followed by the citizens. Indeed, the strict measures not only seeks to stop the spread of the virus, which could cause an unthinkable health crisis in Venezuela collapsed health care system. Moreover, this quarantine measures are set to last until the gasoline crisis is resolved. With people in their homes and with limited movement required, gasoline is less demanded.
After the surreal fate of operation Gedeon, the Chavista Regime has only increase hit bet in the armed forces to control the territory. For intense, they fabricated a new internal enemy ‘Wilexis’ possibly to focus the lower ranks of the military in fighting organized crime, leaving less time to think in their disaffection with day-to-day reality. A weak long operation to capture the leader of the biggest gang in the largest slum in Caracas. Although unsuccessful, it was widely publicized.
Furthermore, in today’s Venezuelan political scenario, fewer alternatives are visible to the construction of democratic governance. If the darkest hour is just before the Dawn, it seems that we are yet to see darkest times in Venezuela.
Last words
Unlike the rest of the region, Venezuela has different challenges to consider while the epidemic reality. Internal and external opposition must acknowledge that despite all the international pressure over the country’s kleptocratic regime, they remain with a de facto control over the territory and with the ability to impose policies, though inefficiently. Moreover, without Democracy, Venezuela would not overcome any of the current issues that threaten its existence. Hence, new approaches toward Venezuela’s democratization most be considered to succeed.
