Box Office Breakdown Listcore: “Bourne” Ready

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Let’s unpack this week’s latest underwhelming-but-still-decent sequel performance, shall we?

Actual Domestic Top 5, July 29th-31st:

1. “Jason Bourne” (PG-13, 4,026 theaters) –
My Prediction: #1, $55 million first weekend, $130 million final
What Actually Went Down: #1, $59.2 million first weekend

As predicted, “Jason Bourne” (a.k.a. “Old Matt Damon Running: The Movie”) did in fact experience a significant drop-off from the opening weekend of the last Matt Damon-Paul Greengrass Bourne adventure, “The Bourne Ultimatum,” which would have made $87.2 million if its opening weekend grosses were adjusted for today’s prices. Still, Universal must have been pleased with its weekend take, which was still on the high end of studio expectations. It also beat my $55 million prediction, albeit not by much. The real test comes next week: will it crumble like last week’s #1 finisher in its second weekend? ONLY TIME (and “Suicide Squad”) CAN TELL. Still, my guess of a $130 million US final is looking pretty pessimistic right now. “JB” might best that by as much as $40 million. “Bourne” also had a huge international day-and-date rollout this weekend in a lot of key markets, and brought in $50.1 million overseas, for a big $109.3 million total to date. This thing should easily lap any prior “Bourne” movie abroad. Matt Damon Running vs. Tom Cruise Running is on the cusp of being a real YouTube mash-up battle, you guys. If they make like three more of these “Bourne” movies, the debate will be a legitimate one.

I bet you were wondering how “Jason Bourne” did against its direct predecessor in the franchise, unloved 2012 entry “The Bourne Legacy,” starring Jeremy Renner and helmed by longtime “Bourne” scribe Tony Gilroy (who did not return for “Jason Bourne”). That flick made $38.1 million in its August debut weekend (which translates to $42.5 million in 2016) and $113.2 million overall and $276.1 million internationally. The $113.2 million take, even in unadjusted dollars, is a franchise low. It cost $125 million to produce, making it a technical flop in the eyes of Hollywood. The $276.1 million worldwide sum is an improvement over the original “The Bourne Identity,” which made $214 million worldwide 10 years before. Adjusted, though, “Identity” made much more than “Legacy” worldwide. Universal’s biggest takeaway from this disappointing performance? If you’re going to replace Matt Damon in a movie, you’ve got to do better than Jeremy Renner.

2. “Star Trek Beyond” (PG-13, 3,928 theaters) –
My Prediction: #3, $30 million (-49%) second weekend, $200 million final
What Actually Went Down: #2, $24.8 million (-58.2%) second weekend

I thought the latest Pine-Quinto-Saldana “Trek” iteration would ease by a slimmer margin than it wound up doing. Thanks to a middling Saturday and Sunday finish from “Bad Moms,” though, “Beyond” was able to maintain a slot in the weekend top two. It’s taken in $105.7 million to date, 21% behind the $133.2 million amassed by “Star Trek Into Darkness” by this point in its run, the 10-day mark. That 2013 flick, basically a shameless remake of “Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan,” finished its run $95 million later, making $228.8 million at US box offices ($236.4 million with inflation). Internationally, “Beyond” has brought in $54.8 million, for a $160.5 million worldwide total to-date. Since robust overseas market growth has been the trend among even the most underperforming domestic would-be franchise movies this year, I think there’s still a real chance that, even if “Beyond” doesn’t recoup its $185 million cost stateside, it will be the first “Star Trek” franchise entry to make $500 million+ worldwide (unadjusted). So that’s something, anyway.

3. “Bad Moms” (R, 3,215 theaters) –
My Prediction: #2, $35 million first weekend, $115 million final
What Actually Went Down: #2, $23.8 million first weekend

The other big new wide release this woken had a strong first-day Friday take of $9.6 million, but it collapsed on Saturday to the tune of an 18.6% slide. Even factoring in Thursday-night preview grosses when you consider the drop, 18.6% is still pretty ominous for a non-sequel in wide release. “Bad Moms” right now is rocking a terrific A CinemaScore, but with a lackluster Saturday and Sunday showing, it’s tough gauge just how well this thing is going to endure during August, when it will make most of its money.

4. “The Secret Life of Pets” (PG, 3,673 theaters) –
My Prediction: #4, $18 million (-39%) fourth weekend, $330 million final
What Actually Went Down: #4, $18.9 million (-36.1%) fourth weekend

My prediction was spot-on for this weekend, but I think my $330 million estimate for the final gross of “The Secret Life of Pets” will fall far short of accuracy. This thing is going to hit that $350 million mark, and there is nothing any of us can do about it. This bodes well for the sneaky return of “Pets” co-star Dana Carvey. First he books that celebrity impressions show on USA, and now he has one of the biggest movie hits of the summer. To be fair, Louis CK and Kevin Hart are the famous-voice headliners in this cast, but still.

5. “Lights Out” (PG-13, 3,997 theaters)
My Prediction: #7, $10 million (-55%) second weekend, $70 million final
What Actually Went Down: #5, $11 million (-48.6%) second weekend

I thought Lionsgate’s zeitgeist-channeling Emma Roberts thriller “Nerve,” which opened with a solid $3.7 million on Wednesday, would crest its good social media buzz to a surprising $15 million Friday-to-Sunday gross. Instead, it failed to build on that promising start, and took in a more muted $9.4 million from 2,538 theaters. That’ll bring its sum to $15 million after five days of release, and with just a $20 million budget — and minimal overhead committed to marketing — it should still be a modest (relative) hit. A $30–35 million final could be in the works, depending on word-of-mouth. The A-CinemaScore for “Nerve” suggests good buzz for the rest of its run.

The 5th through 7th-place slots this weekend were all occupied by holdovers. “Ice Age: Collision Course” wound up taking 5th when actual receipts were accounted for, after “Lights Out” was estimated to do so by its studio New Line on Sunday. All the movies in the #5–8 slots made within $1.6 million of each other’s weekend totals. The cumulative haul for “Collision Course” stands at $42.6 million on just a $105 million investment. Like so many other rehashes this summer, though, its saving grace is the movie’s pull in international territories — to date, it has made $212.3 million at the foreign box office, and could easily pull in several hundred million more. It could wrap things up in the vicinity of $75 million domestically, which would make it the least successful “Ice Age” movie stateside by a factor of $85 million.

A quick note on the domestic flop/international hit phenomenon that’s been sweeping studio wallets this summer: remember Duncan Jones’s “Warcraft?” Even though it tanked here, having pulled in just $47.2 million to date in the US (it played in less than a hundred theaters last weekend, its run here is virtually over), the $160 million epic has made $385.8 million abroad, for a $433 million worldwide total. Even if you tacked a likely $100 million marketing campaign onto its $160 million price tag, the thing is a resounding hit. It’ll be interesting to see what Universal does for an encore.

By Alex Kirschenbaum