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Augur — A Deep Dive

Over the past nine months, we have joined forces with other talented teams from Guesser, Veil, and Blitz Predict to bring decentralized prediction markets to the mainstream.

While on this journey, our team began an in-depth look into the Augur ecosystem to accurately understand the current state of adoption, liquidity, volume, REP distribution, REP participation, active market creators, and active resolution participants. What originated as a research exercise grew more immersive, and with Veil’s announcement to sunset their product, we have decided to publish this report to highlight the hurdles Augur Cos are facing and to provide a fully transparent, impartial view into Augur for the community.

History and Ecosystem

Augur is a decentralized oracle and peer-to-peer protocol for prediction markets.

Augur was one of the first protocol to hold an Ethereum ICO in August 2015 to fund development for the protocol.

Economics

Augur launched its ICO with 11 million REP tokens at the price of 0.06 cents per token. The ICO raised approximately USD 5.3 million in ETH and Bitcoin. When Augur concluded its ICO, the price per ETH was USD 1.37.

  • 80% — 8.8 million REP: ICO Participants
  • 16% — 1.76 million REP: Augur Founders
  • 4% — 440 thousand REP: Forecast Foundation

REP is used for reporting on and disputing the outcomes of events. REP holders are rewarded for reporting the correct winning outcome of the event after it occurs, while others can dispute if they don’t agree.

Usage

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https://dappradar.com/app/673/augur timestamp — August 5, 2019 4:00 pm CET

Usage peaked to just over 250 daily active users. After launch, a sudden decline in interaction followed, and usage has maintained this course until now. As noted in the chart, volume spikes are closely tied to real-world events such as the vote for the US House of Representatives. Outside of a few highly polarizing events, Augur’s liquidity and usage have seemed to neither stagnate nor grow.

REP Distribution

In order to provide an easy to digest overview of REP Distribution, we have included this image from Etherscan.

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https://etherscan.io/token/0x1985365e9f78359a9B6AD760e32412f4a445E862#balances timestamp — August 5, 2019, 4:00 pm CET
  • The top 20 addresses represent over 51.1% of REP allocation.
  • Five of these addresses are verified exchange wallets, which represent 14.8% of REP allocation.

Markets

  • Total markets: 2,569
  • Total finalized markets: 2,245
  • Markets which entered the dispute phase: 217 (8.45% of total markets)
  • Total invalid markets: 313 (13.94% of all finalized markets)
  • Average dispute rounds per disputed market: 4.22

Creators

  • Total unique market creators (incl. outliers*): 667
  • Average markets created per unique creator (incl. outliers): 3.85
  • Total unique market creators (excl. outliers): 661
  • Average markets created per unique creator (excl. outliers): 2.57

*in this case outliers are addresses that created more than 45 markets

Markets with Significant Volume

In order to provide a clear overview of significant traction on Augur, we removed markets with less than 10 ETH in volume.

  • Total markets with ≥ 10 ETH in Volume: 275
  • Total unique market creators: 92
  • Average markets created per creator: 2.98
  • Of the top 275 Markets, 25 addresses created 195 markets (70.91%).
  • The top 10 market creator addresses, created 50.55% of markets.
  • The top 10 reporter addresses are used for 50.55% of markets as a resolution source.

REP Participation

Below is an overview of REP participation and incentive payouts. All dollar values are calculated at REP’s price of $11.64.

  • Total REP staked in disputes (incl. outliers*): 82,600 REP ($961,464.40)
  • Total REP staked in disputes (excl. outliers): 14,190.18 REP ($165,173.70)
  • Avg. REP staked in disputes (incl. outliers): 380.65 REP ($4,430.77)
  • Avg. REP staked in disputes (excl. outliers): 65.40 REP ($761.26)

*in this case outliers are markets that went through more than 10 dispute rounds

To analyze the raw data from our Augur node, please follow this link.

— Flux Team

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A development company building open-source tools on top of Flux Protocol.

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