The OFNHL Pre-Draft Roster Review (or, How To Build A Championship Fantasy Team)

As the old saying goes: a year is a long time in fantasy hockey.

Why, just last year we were back here ruminating on some of the bigger fantasy hockey talent acquisition questions facing the GM’s of the OFNHL, such as whether Kris Letang was going to get picked first overall in the draft (he didn’t), and if I was going to be super distressed about missing out on Scott Darling as my second keeper (I wasn’t).

Fast forward to today and our eclectic bunch of team owners — lead by first-time champion John Thompson — have a fresh series of roster issues to contemplate as we countdown the final few weeks before draft day on September 23, and the season start proper.

But what does it take to actually build a championship-quality team in the OFNHL, or even one that can push for playoff glory?

With this question in mind, I undertook a review of the rosters for each team as they were on the final day of the season, and how each player got there in the first place: draft, free agency or trade. If you were to try and build the average OFNHL squad, here’s how you’d do it:

Draft: 48.2%
Free Agency: 39.9%
Trade: 11.8%

It’s clear that the first formal event of the OFNHL season — the draft — is incredibly important to nearly all teams final form heading into playoffs. This really isn’t that surprising, given that even with the introduction of a limited-keeper league format we remain a largely redraft league. It’d be interesting to see how these figures change in the coming seasons if we go down the path of expanding the number of keepers we pick.

Part of me expected the trade figure to be much lower, especially when 10% of your roster equates to roughly two players. But the stats don’t lie, and across the league nearly everyone has swung a player move or two in the last 12 months to try and improve their roster.

So how does each team stack up individually, and what can we divine about their intentions for the coming season based on their keeper picks (if they’ve been made already)? Read on to find out!

Note: teams are ranked in order of Season 2019 draft position and, accordingly, their final standing worst-to-best after the Season 2018 playoffs wrapped up.

1. TROCH-CHECK IT OUT! (Ryan Hines):
   Draft 54.5%, Free Agency 36.4%, Trade 9.1%
   Our newest addition to the OFNHL owners circle, Ryan takes over Cori’s GM position at the team-formerly-known-as Kane’s Kandy Kanes. As you will see over the next three teams, one of the hallmarks of squads at the bottom of the standings was their reliance on the draft; the three highest draft percentages for the league were found in this group and only one other squad in the entire league had a draft mark of 50% or over. And yet…Ryan takes over a bottom placed team that was the most active of any of the bottom three last year. Maybe a change at the top of the org chart will lead to some different moves being made? Keeper picks Trocheck and Murray are a completely different pairing to last year’s Kane (since traded away) and Bergeron picks…so maybe a change in direction is just what this squad needs to lift itself up the standings.
2. PILLSBURY DOUGHTYBOYS (Mark Thierry):
   D 73.9%, FA 26.1%, T 0%
   Mark’s team was one of only two squads in the league not to be involved in a trade last year and the free agency marker was also the second lowest across all teams. It’s clear that the draft means everything to this squad, so Mark’s confession he’ll be at the footy on draft day and attempting to make picks via stadium wifi might in fact force a more proactive approach to wheelin’ and dealin’ in 2019! Previous draftees and keeper picks Malkin and Doughty will anchor this team again for another season, though it was slim pickings on the waiver with none of Grabner, Stralman, Atkinson or Maatta living up to their potential.
3. YOU BOSER BO-LIEVE IT! (Hayden Kay):
   D 91.3%, FA 8.7%, T 0%
   Hayden, the second of our two new GMs for 2019, takes over a squad that remarkably, for the reliance on its draft, didn’t finish last! You’d have to imagine that even a cursory approach to the waiver wire this year will see a more balanced and competitive squad result. Last year this squad had picked Pacioretty and Benn as its two keepers and while the latter remains a stud prospect given our league scoring categories, you have to wonder whether Hayden will follow the same path or mix it up a little.
4. THE TARASENKSHOW (Harley Schinagl)
   D 34.8%, FA 34.8%, T 30.4%
   Harley’s team had the most balanced squad profile in terms of acquisition than any other in the league. Like, super balanced. He was involved in everything, but trades was where he really went to work, assembling a veritable all-star team along the way: OEL, Hellebuyck, Kane and Voracek all arrived via transactions with other squads. Having said all that, you can only keep two players for the coming season. Tarasenko is back in the fold as the number one keeper and mid-season trade acquisition Patrick Kane takes up the other spot, giving Harley enviable depth at the RW position heading into draft day.
5. RINNE THE JEWELS (David Scott)
   D 45.5%, FA 27.3%, T 27.3%
   I was well below the league average in free agency moves last season, reflecting one of my weakest personality traits in fantasy sport: I get too attached to the players I pick up! Take Sam Reinhart: I held on wayyyyy too long to the Sabres prospect in the hope he would turn things around (Narrator: he did not). With the exception of Harley, my trade figure was the highest in the league which is a point of some personal pride as I’m usually not that good at that aspect of things. Still, wasn’t enough to make the playoffs. I’m pretty keen to retain Kucherov but my other spot is still TBC.
6. QUICK’S SCHTICK (Giles Ng)
   D 43.5%, FA 52.2%, T 4.3%
   Giles certainly didn't die trying to find out the right mix of talent on his roster, with the vast majority of his team coming via the waiver pool; a 52.2% marker was the third highest in the league. Last year this squad retained Holtby and Panerin in its keeper positions — will the uncertainty around the immediate playing future of the latter change Giles’ mind heading into the draft? Time will tell.
7. SCOOBY DUBNYK (Sean Lopes)
   D 50%, FA 40.9%, T 9.1%
   Now we’re heading into a pair of teams who just missed out on a playoff birth. Sean’s squad was the only one outside of the bottom three who retained 50% or more of their original draft team for the entire season (remembering that the league average was a tad over 48%), and a free agency level of almost 41% puts him right about the league average too. On these measure’s, Sean’s team is as close as we can get to a league average team. New Maple Leaf Tavares has retained his keeper spot, but last year’s pick of Joe Pavelski is ready to be redrafted with Lopes going for the renaissance man himself, Marc-Andre Fleury.
8. HAT-TRICK LAINE (Alistair Hogg)
   D 43.5%, FA 39.1%, T 17.4%
   Alistair was again, for a second straight year, in the position just outside of the playoffs looking in. His squad had the fourth highest trade percentage, but he was about league average for free agency moves which is pretty wild when you consider Al is usually at the top of the league for total transactions. Seguin and Laine are back again as the two keepers and really, you couldn’t ask for a better one-two start to your team. Maybe this is the year the rest of the squad helps him across the line and into a playoff spot?
9. GUDAS GOLD (Nathan Graham)
   D 27.3%, FA 68.2%, T 4.5%
   Our analysis now shifts to the top four playoff teams from last year and they’re all quite distinct with how they went about building things. Nathan had the largest free agency percentage of any in the league, nabbing players like Barzal, Lindholm and Schenn in the process. Accordingly, his draft percentage was the lowest of any of the playoff teams. A pair of Winnipeg jets (ahem) in Schiefele and Wheeler have been tabbed for keeper spots, neither of whom were on anyone’s keeper list last year. Will the Gold’s fortunes rise in line with those of Winnipeg’s in the NHL?
10. THREE RUSSIANS ONE CUP (Mark White)
    D 36.4%, FA 50%, T 13.6%
    Mark had the second biggest draft and trade percentages of the top four, but was also well above the league average for free agency moves as well. Like Alistair, Mark has an established reputation for finding clever transactions across a season, so it’s no surprise his draft mark was the fourth lowest of the league — he’s definitely not one for standing still. Big Dustin B and Sid the Kid are returning as keepers and given how close the club went to a championship birth last year that seems a fair response.
11. BO KNOWS (Robert Trims)
    D 47.8%, FA 30.4%, T 21.7%
    Last years defending champion had the highest trade mark of any of the playoff teams, and the third highest in the league overall. Rob was particularly attracted to the blue line when trading with other teams, bringing in Hamilton, Dumba and Werenski across the season. He’s got a hell of a decision to make on the keeper front however, with players like McDavid, McKinnon, Hedman, Hall and Vasilevskiy all with a legitimate case to make for why they should stay rostered.
12. SOUND THE HORNQVIST (John Thompson)
    D 30.4%, FA 65.2%, T 4.3%
    This years defending champions finished the season with the second highest free agency mark, behind only fourth-placed Gudas Gold. John’s trade mark was the lowest of any of the playoff teams and, with the exception of the two teams above that completed no trades, was the lowest in the league as well. Eschewing the cut and thrust of GM-to-GM transactions, John still managed to acquire the likes of Courtier, Brown, Krug, Mantha and Ryan to name a few, who ably supported draftees Matthews, Burns and team namesake Hornqvist. The former two have been returned as keeper picks, a direct copy of the same picks John made this time last year. Hey, if the formula works…

So what have we learned?

• Standing pat after the draft is a recipe for disaster (or, at the very least, almost ensures you miss the playoffs); no team with a final day roster containing 50% or more of their original drafted players made the playoffs. Conversely, only one playoff team from last year had more than 40% of their roster remain the same from draft to finish.
• Being savvy in the free agency pool is the biggest improvement one can make to your teams chances; while the league average hovered around 40%, every playoff team had more than 53% of their final day squad come from waivers.
• Just…go out and have some fun, yeah? This is a great little league we’ve got, full of folks who will happily share advice (solicited or otherwise, bantz or real) and push people to be the best they can be. Enjoy it!