I’ll admit something at that point — couldn’t say what though — we’re not there yet.
Matt Tramel

We’ll find out on Tuesday. With her blowout in VI yesterday, she’s got 1782 of the 4051 pledged delegates, meaning she needs 244 more to have the majority(2026). Between now and Tuesday there’s 754 up for grabs, so she needs 32.4% of those delegates to seize the majority on Tuesday. If she got half of NJ, and half of PR (she’ll do better in both) She’d need 152 more. If Bernie got ALL of the delegates in ND, SD, NM and MT (not gonna happen), she would need only 31.7% of California’s delegates to get the majority. Nobody is even suggesting Bernie will get 68% of the vote in CA.

More realistically (but still conservative and rounding down) she’ll get 60%(75) in NJ and PR(36), half in NM(17) and 35% in the other three (20 total). With those, she’d then need 96 delegates out of CA to take the majority, or 20.2% of the CA vote. This is the math we’ve been talking about, and that’s without superdelegates or DC, which will favor her by a 3:1 margin.

One clap, two clap, three clap, forty?

By clapping more or less, you can signal to us which stories really stand out.