Comparison of casualties after 3 months of war
How does the war in Ukraine compare to other recent conflicts? We collected statistics on civilian deaths and displaced persons after 3 months of invasion.
Data on “displaced” includes both refugees abroad and internally displaced persons.
For Ukraine we used minimum estimates and official data, undoubtedly underestimated because the UN cannot verify casualties in territories occupied by Russia since the beginning of the conflict (including cities with half a million inhabitants such as Mariupol):
Since 24 February 2022, in the context of the Russian Federation’s military action in Ukraine, HRMMU has been unable to visit places of incidents and interview victims and witnesses there.
It’s reasonable to assume that the actual numbers are much higher, but we’ll only be able to draw conclusions in the coming months or years.
For all other conflicts we have reported the maximum estimates, after 3 months of conflict if available, or in the periods indicated below (never less than 3 months).
In chronological order:
→ Ukraine [1]
Begun: Feb 24, 2022
Civilian deaths confirmed after 3 months:
3974
Civilian deaths estimated after 3 months:
5–20k more [2] in Mariupol alone
Displaced after 3 months:
14,5 millions
→ Nagorno Karabakh [3]
Begun: Sep 27, 2020
Ended: Nov 10, 2020
Civilian deaths after 1,5 months:
197
Displaced after 1,5 months:
140k
→ Yemen [4]
Begun: Sep 16, 2014
Casualties data available since: Mar, 26 2015
Civilian deaths after 3 months:
1655
Displaced after 4 months (previous data not available):
1,3 millions
→ Syria [5]
Begun: Mar 15, 2011
Civilian deaths after 3 months:
1230–1337
Displaced after 3 months:
7–12,6k
→ Libya [6]
Begun: Feb 15, 2011
UN intervention: Mar 19, 2011
Civilian deaths after 4 months:
1108–2502
Displaced after 4 months:
100k
→ Somalia [7]
Begun: Dec 20, 2006
Civilian deaths after 6 months (previous data not available):
300–320
Displaced after 3 months:
750k
→ Iraq [8]
Begun: Mar 20, 2003
Civilian deaths after 3 months:
7979
Displaced after 9 months (monthly data not available):
368423
The Iraqi case is particular because the fall of Saddam allowed the return of many expatriates, so the total number of refugees in 2003 actually decreased:
“Iraq experienced an important refugee decrease during 2003 (-13%)”
according to UNHCR.
→ Afghanistan [9]
Begun: Oct 7, 2001
Civilian deaths after 3 months:
2375–3231
Displaced after 3 months:
1,2 millions
→ Yugoslavia: NATO Operation Allied Force [10]
Begun: Mar 24, 1999
Ended: Jun 10, 1999
Civilian deaths after 2,5 months:
528
Displaced: as for Iraq, the intervention allowed the return of many refugees, so there are no estimates for the NATO operation alone.
→ Yugoslavia (Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina): NATO Operation Deliberate Force [11]
Begun: Aug 30, 1995
Ended: Sep 20, 1995
Civilian deaths after 3 weeks:
27
SOURCES:
[1] https://www.ohchr.org/en/news/2022/05/ukraine-civilian-casualty-update-25-may-2022 , https://www.iom.int/news/iom-scales-regional-displacement-tracking-response-war-ukraine
[2] https://www.euronews.com/2022/05/11/us-ukraine-crisis-un-rights , https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-21-22-23-may-2022-585dddf58bf1 , https://www.npr.org/sections/pictureshow/2022/04/22/1094234731/possible-mass-graves-near-mariupol-shown-in-satellite-images , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alleged_Russian_war_crimes_in_Mariupol
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_2020_Nagorno-Karabakh_war , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nagorno-Karabakh_war
[4] https://yemendataproject.org/data.html , https://www.unhcr.org/news/latest/2015/8/55c0d5c09/100000-flee-yemen-four-months-since-fighting-started.html
[5] https://www2.ohchr.org/english/bodies/hrcouncil/docs/17session/A.HRC.17.CRP.1_Englishonly.pdf , https://vdc-sy.net/monthly-statistical-report-victims-syria-june-2014/ , https://www2.ohchr.org/english/bodies/hrcouncil/docs/17session/A.HRC.17.CRP.1_Englishonly.pdf , https://web.archive.org/web/20110623163253/https://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110617/wl_mideast_afp/syriaviolenceturkeyrefugees_20110617130011 , https://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/14236-syrian-refugees-continue-fleeing-to-lebanon-numbers-reach-2600
[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_First_Libyan_Civil_War , https://www.internal-displacement.org/sites/default/files/publications/documents/201111-me-libya-overview-en.pdf
[7] https://web.archive.org/web/20060629113205/http://www.reliefweb.int/library/documents/2006/unicef-som-30may.pdf , https://web.archive.org/web/20060627055434/http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWB.NSF/db900SID/EVOD-6QRHWQ?OpenDocument , https://web.archive.org/web/20060411071846/http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWB.NSF/db900SID/EGUA-6NHRYC?OpenDocument
[8] https://www.iraqbodycount.org/database/ , https://www.unhcr.org/40d015fb4.pdf
[9] https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2015/War%20Related%20Casualties%20Afghanistan%20and%20Pakistan%202001-2014%20FIN.pdf , https://web.archive.org/web/20070614101539/http://pubpages.unh.edu/~mwherold/AfghanDailyCount.pdf , https://www.unhcr.org/news/briefing/2002/3/3c84c6929/afghanistan-return-kabul-internally-displaced-begin.html
[10] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_bombing_of_Yugoslavia , https://www.icty.org/en/press/final-report-prosecutor-committee-established-review-nato-bombing-campaign-against-federal , https://www.un.org/press/en/1999/19990610.SC6686.html
[11] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Deliberate_Force
