Contenders vs. Pretenders: Why the Iowa Caucuses Should Go First
Recently, everyone from presidential candidates to pundits have been making headlines by stating why they think Iowa should not go first in the presidential nomination process. I am going to lay out several reasons why they are wrong. But first, what a caucus is, and some history of why the Iowa Caucuses are the way they are; because this plays into their present, and their future.
What is a caucus, anyway? In the simplest terms, it is a meeting of the political party members in precincts. At this meeting, several things are decided from the members of that precinct to sit on the local party committees, what policies the party should work on, and yes, presidential preference. Because this meeting is public, even observers and the media are welcome, the preference counts are public, as well. Presidential preference is used to determine delegates to the county convention. Those delegates then will select to the congressional district convention, then the state convention, eventually ending up with who will be representing Iowa amidst the balloons, streamers, and confetti in a stadium at the national convention.
Now for the history. After the tempestuous 1968 Democratic Convention, it was decided on a national level that the nominating processes needed to be opened up, and power needed to be restored to the people and out of the smoky backrooms. Part of this process was to lengthen the time that each state has to nominate their delegates. Iowans also wanted this, however, doing so pushed their schedule so that it was first in the nation. 1972 came, and over 40,000 Democrats caucused for their candidate to unseat Richard Nixon. In 1976, Jimmy Carter, a candidate from Georgia with little name recognition nationally, and little money coming in decided to bank all his hopes and most of his dollars in Iowa. Carter’s strong finish in the Iowa caucuses surprised many, and that momentum carried him to the nomination and ultimately, the White House. Since then, that has largely been the playbook, for Iowa to decide the contenders and pretenders. Finish strong in Iowa and you can be set. However, if you fall, your candidacy may be doomed. (4)
So, why should we continue with this method? After all, isn’t Iowa white, rural, small, and has a terrible history of picking the nominee? The answer is sort of. So let’s take each of these criticisms one-by-one.
Isn’t Iowa white? The answer is yes, but increasing not so. It was this criticism (of both Iowa and New Hampshire) that convinced the national parties to move the primary processes in South Carolina and Nevada earlier than they had been, so it has been lessened. As David Radlawsk, a Political Scientist from Rutgers University put it, “ It makes more sense in a sequential system not to worry about the “representativeness” of any one state. Combined, the first four carve-out states — Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada — do a pretty good job of representing the constituencies and issues that drive American politics.” Secondly, Iowa has a decent history of rewarding success, regardless of race. Names like Cruz, Rubio, and Carson have enjoyed at least some success in Iowa on the Republican side; while Bill Richardson and Jesse Jackson were welcomed on the Democratic side. And don’t forget Barack Obama enjoyed wide support in Iowa, filling gymnasiums and convention halls from the time of his announcement, eventually winning the Iowa caucuses, a great momentum-booster that ultimately led him to the presidency. (3) (4)
Isn’t Iowa rural? Yes, but so is most of middle America. Also according to government statistics, rural populations have more veterans per capita, lower median household income, and have a higher population of the elderly; which are impacted directly by three of the most pressing issues, care for veterans, the impoverished, and seniors. (8)
Isn’t Iowa small? Yes, but this is also an advantage. It is this benefit that allows candidates that are less well-known to flourish and allows for a discussion on a broader range of issues. Let’s take a typical midweek day during a campaign in Iowa… You can start with a 10:00 am coffee roundtable in Davenport, have a 1:00 pm lunch with leaders in Cedar Rapids, a 3:00 interview with a television station, and a 7:00 rally in Des Moines and still leave time for fundraising, emails, and all the other things that a candidate must do. And any decent campaign can be successful at all of these events, even during the middle of the week.
Doesn’t Iowa have a terrible history of picking the nominee? No, not really. And that is not the job of the precinct caucuses, either in process in the state, or its responsibility in the national scene. As I said earlier, Iowa plays a large role in picking who the serious contenders are for the nomination. It does not, however, pick the candidate.
In its role to find the contenders versus pretenders, it has an amazing track record. Between the two parties, there has been a competitive caucus 17 times since 1972 (10 on the Democratic side, 7 on the Republican side). Of those 17 times, the eventual party nominee has finished out of the top 3 exactly twice; John McCain finished two-tenths of one percentage point behind the third-place candidate in 2008, and Bill Clinton finished fourth in 1996 in a race that included Iowa Senator, Tom Harkin. (3)
So… What else makes Iowa so great? Iowa is affordable; according to US News and World Report, Iowa is the most affordable state in the country. This is important when you consider the staff, many of them young organizers just out of college. And it is also cheap to advertise in Iowa. The largest media market in the state (Des Moines) is 75th-biggest nationally. (7) (8)
Iowa also takes this very seriously. A former Chair of the Democratic National Committee said, “Iowa could be trusted with first-in-the-nation status because the state’s well-informed electorate takes the responsibility of choosing a presidential nominee more seriously than voters elsewhere. While it doesn’t look like America, when they take into consideration the qualities and values we’re looking for in a candidate, I believe that they represent what is truly best about our country.” (2)
The caucuses cost a lot of time, effort, organization, and perhaps most of all, money, as in thousands of dollars. Yet, Iowa is used to doing it. They will raise the money, they have the people and structure in place. The activists are willing to open their homes, backyards, farms, and coffee shops to campaigns. They also have offices and all the other resources available for when the campaigns descend.
Additionally, the Iowa Democratic Party has changed the Iowa Caucuses. The 2020 Democratic Caucuses will look much different from previous ones. When complaints arose about releasing raw totals, the procedures were changed to have the numbers, including raw preference totals, from each precinct, reported no less than seven times during the caucus. To allow for a possible recount, each caucus participant will certify their preferences in writing. It is almost certain the Republicans will follow suit in their next competitive primary season. (1)
So why should the Iowa Caucuses be first? Would you want to do all this? They do, and they’re good at it. Let them.
Sources:
(1) “2020 Precinct Caucus Guide.” The Caucuses, Iowa Democratic Party, acc99235–748f-4706–80f5–4b87384c1fb7.filesusr.com/ugd/5af8f4_3abefbb734444842ae1abf985876cce8.pdf. Accessed 13 Jan. 2020.
(2) Ember, Sydney, and Reid J. Epstein. “Why Almost Nobody Will Defend the Iowa Caucuses.” The New York Times, 13 Nov. 2019, www.nytimes.com/2019/11/13/us/politics/2020-iowa-caucus.html. Accessed 13 Jan. 2020.
(3) “Iowa Caucuses Results History 1972 to 2016 | DesMoinesRegister.Com.” Desmoinesregister.Com, Des Moines Register, data.desmoinesregister.com/iowa-caucus/history/#1972/dem. Accessed 13 Jan. 2020.
(4) Ross, Janell. “Why Does Iowa Get to Vote First?” The Washington Post, 1 Feb. 2016, www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/01/making-sense-of-the-iowa-caucuses/. Accessed 13 Jan. 2020.
(5) Sanders, Sam. “Why Does Iowa Vote First, Anyway?” Npr.Org, National Public Radio, 26 Jan. 2016, www.npr.org/2016/01/29/464804185/why-does-iowa-vote-first-anyway. Accessed 13 Jan. 2020.
(6) Seedorff, Lee. “The Iowa Caucuses | International Programs.” Uiowa.Edu, The University of Iowa, 25 Jan. 2016, international.uiowa.edu/news/iowa-caucuses. Accessed 13 Jan. 2020.
(7) “These Are the Most Affordable States in the U.S.” Usnews.Com, US News and World Report, 2019, www.usnews.com/news/best-states/rankings/opportunity/affordability. Accessed 13 Jan. 2020.
(8) “Top 100 Media Markets | News Generation | Broadcast Media Relations.” News Generation, Inc., newsgeneration.com/broadcast-resources/top-100-radio-markets/. Accessed 13 Jan. 2020.
(9) US Census Bureau. “Urban and Rural.” The United States Census Bureau, 30 Aug. 2018, www.census.gov/programs-surveys/geography/guidance/geo-areas/urban-rural.html.
About the Author: Mark Fuller is nearly a lifelong Iowan, returning to the Hawkeye State after brief stints in Florida, Illinois, and Virginia. He is currently employed at a college helping the next generation to become a well-educated populous. He graduated with a Bachelor of Arts Degree in Political Science from Simpson College in Indianola, Iowa.