REALPOLITIKS AS NIGERIA DECIDES

The 2015 elections in Nigeria is often depicted in revolutionary terms. The ruling political party at the time, People’s Democratic Party (PDP), had been in power for 16 years and were deeply entrenched as a political institution, so it seemed almost impossible that any political party could upend them. Yet this was what happened in 2015. Nigerians went to the polls and voted preponderantly for the opposition party, All Progressives Congress (APC), which is in power today.
Given how disappointing APC’s stint at national leadership under Muhammadu Buhari has been, many commentators are hoping for a 2015-type revolution when Nigerians go to the poll again in 2019. This narrative was recently evinced by a former Nigerian minister, Oby Ezekwesili, on Twitter where she wrote the following:
‘All these buying of Presidential forms and payment for forms going on in the Polity among the Same-Same Bad Governance candidates of [APC & PDP] jus dey make me laf shaaa. They actually think we are joking with our #RedCardToAPCPDP. Wait until it happens before your very eyes.’
‘Nigerian Citizens will teach the [APC & PDP] Siamese Twins in 2019. When it happens, they and their allies will sing the Latin Nunc Dimittis. You know the meaning? The song of Simeon when Christ was born. “Now let your servant depart”. 2019 shall mark the Deliverance of Nigeria.’
While I agree with the sentiment that Nigeria deserves better governance than what APC and PDP has offered, I do not think the optimism that both parties will be upended in 2019 is grounded in reality. (I also don’t think a ruling party other than APC or PDP necessarily translates to good governance but that is a separate discussion).
First, a look at the 2015 election results shows that APC, the winning party garnered 15,424,921 votes versus 12,853,162 for PDP. Besides the fact that this margin of victory — roughly 2.5 million — was less than the 10 million votes with which Goodluck Jonathan had won with PDP in 2011, the party with the next closest tally of votes only amassed about 55,000 votes. This tells us two things: One, except there is a major split in either APC or PDP, the 2019 elections, like four years prior, is really a two-party race. Whether you like it or not, both parties remain the ‘serious’ parties in Nigeria in terms of political structure, clout and funding. Furthermore, these two parties practically control all Nigerian states even with governors constantly switching parties. The idea that a dark horse political party can create inroads nationally is wishful thinking. Two, voting APC in 2015 was more about a reprehension of PDP by Nigerians than it was an embrace of good governance. Nigerians may have hoped for good governance from APC but revolt against another PDP government was more pivotal in influencing their voting decisions. I make this assertion because many key political figures in APC were previously members of PDP at the time of the 2015 elections. This clearly showed that Nigerian parties are not ideological entities but simply electoral platforms for politicians. Most voters know this but vote for the political heavyweights in spite of it.
Second, the crop of political parties that have sprouted in the run-up to next year’s elections do not have the same political bandwidth as PDP or APC. There are shining political figures whose presidential candidacy has brought cheers from social media communities but it’s unlikely that they can rally the level of support as the two staple parties. This is not pessimism on my part. Personally, I am impressed by the doggedness of these newbreed politicians and political parties. I desire a David-defeats-Goliath scenario but my conclusion is grounded in realpolitik. Concentrating electoral efforts at the presidency as most are doing is not strategically smart for a new-breed political party. If a new-breed political party seeks to defeat the current behemoths, it should first win couple of states in gubernatorial elections across different regions of the country. That way, it can then galvanize sufficient political clout to rally up to national elections. The idea that a person will win the presidency but have no representative in the national assembly or a political ally amongst the incumbent governors is just catastrophic.
I hate to concede it so early but 2019 is a shoo-in for either APC or PDP. But if a new wave political party can snatch 5 or 6 gubernatorial victories then it can parlay this into national victory in 2023.
