In the last ten years, the Sacramento Kings have made some questionable draft picks, and I would never suggest the Ben McLemore is the worst. However, after watching nearly every Kings game this season and searching for a scapegoat, it didn’t take me long to settle on Ben. To see whether or not this ire was justified beyond the eye test, I compared Ben’s rookie numbers to his numbers from 2015–16, his third. I then did the same for every player drafted after him in the 2013 draft to see how his growth compared. As you’ll soon see, I use the term “growth” with some irony…
First, a quick note about my methodology: I looked at the following advanced stats: Player Efficiency Rating, True Shooting %, Total Rebound %, Assist %, Steal %, Block %, Turnover %, Win Shares, Box Plus/Minus, and Value Over Replacement Player. (Check out this glossary for exact definitions of these stats). I subtracted rookie stats in these categories from the stats recorded in players’ third years and then totaled the differences to create a sort of Growth Index. So, for example, C.J. McCollum had an 8.7 Assist % as a rookie and 21.6 in his third year, he’s plus 12.9 for that category. (The only exception to this method is Turnover % because it’s positive if this number goes down, so we flip the subtraction for this category.)
Ok, enough nerd stuff, on to the findings…
Now, keep in mind, this method doesn’t bode well for players that improved from their rookie to sophomore season, but then had a down season after that. It does, however, favor players who were especially garbage their rookie year and became decent players after that.
Whether or not this method is the perfect way to assess how bust-y a player is (it’s almost surely not), it is troubling that Ben really hasn’t grown since his rookie year…really at all. You can blame George Karl if you’d like, but regardless of the reason(s) for his stagnation, I think it’s time to move on from Ben if the Kings want to win now.
You may have noticed some notable names from the 2013 draft class left out of my chart. I felt some situations didn’t give an accurate picture of growth, here’s why:
- Anthony Bennett only played 19 games in 2015–16
- Otto Porter only played 37 games his rookie year
- Reggie Bullock has never played more than 43 games in a season
- Lucas Nogueira has only played 35 games in his career
- Sergey Karasev, Livio Jean-Charles, and Nemanja Nedovic have never played an NBA game
Of those who did make the chart, here are some notes to keep in mind:
- Shane Larkin only played 48 games his rookie year (45 was my arbitrary cut-off).
- Nerlens Noel has only played two season so his score reflects growth from his first season to his second.
Thanks to Basketball Reference for all these stats.
