Jun 26, 2016

Why humans can’t be first to land on Mars

by Gaetano Marano

One day every two, we read news coming from billionaires, space agencies, universities, old and new aerospace companies, sci-fi writers, former NASA astronauts, inventors, filmakers, etc. that propose us “their” plans to send a crew of humans (or whole colonies of terrestrials) on Mars, someday or soon or much sooner or (just wait a bit) in the next years.

One good reason of that, is the fact, that (literally) ALL discoveries, news and plans about possible Mars travels, get a (free of charge) immediate and global press coverage (each one, of the equivalent value of hundreds million$) on TVs, newspapers, websites, blogs etc. that is especially good for those who want to sell their (simpler and more profitable) products (like, electric cars, rockets, solar panels, trains in the hole, etc.) or that try to grab TONS of billion$ of government funds to “develop” their martian projects.

Another reason of the huge interest, about everything related to Mars, is that, for centuries, thousands of astronomers, sci-fi movies, books and comics, writers, novels, probes, landers, rovers, images, theories, Mars travel plans, researches, simulations, terraforming projects, etc. have made the Red Planet the most fascinating place in our Solar System and the only planet where we can hope to send astronauts, someday, and, maybe, to live, creating large human colonies of hundreds, thousands or even millions of people.

The reason why I say that Mars is “the only planet where we can hope to send astronauts” isn’t that there are no other places to land and live (despite not easily) for humans in the Solar System, but because the researches about robots and artificial intelligence do run much more quickly that the researches (and the fundraising) for the human travels to Mars, Jupiter or Saturn moons (and beyond) so, very likely, ALL future space explorations (beyond Mars, or also including Mars) will be surely accomplished (much more safely and cheaply) by strong and intelligent robots, rather than by very fragile humans.

But the main reason why Mars is so interesting for us, resides in the hope to find, there, any kind of, ancient or (better) still living, FORM OF LIFE.

Unfortunately, the main reason to go Mars (the possible martian forms of life) is also the main reason why an human landing on Mars will NEVER be allowed (or, not so soon) by World governments.

Now I try to explain why I believe that, an humans travel to Mars, isn’t something that we will see happen (also if we find the huge amounts of money it needs, that’s not so easy) before 30–40 years, or even NEVER, if the development of AI space-robots will go faster.

There are only four possible options regarding the Mars life that I list here:

1st :: no past or present life on Mars :: the Red Planet has never had (nor has) the basic conditions to allow a form of life to born and to live safely, so, we can’t find there fossils or plants or bacteria and (surely) no “green little men”.

2nd :: only past forms of life on Mars :: this option is based on the theories that Mars may have had a life-friendly environment, millions or billions of years ago, but that, later, it has lost its atmosphere and evaporated its water, so, now, we can find only some traces or fossils of the Mars ancient life.

3rd :: present, but very fragile, forms of life on Mars :: despite, the presence of life on Mars, seems very improbable, IMO, it’s not completely impossible that small bacteria or plants have survived to the loss of water, oxygen and atmosphere and still live (maybe, deeper from surface) in some places of the Red Planet.

4th :: present, but very aggressive for humans, forms of life on Mars :: this is the worst option and, if life still exists on Mars, can’t be excluded, not because the Mars life is “bad” (like in some, horror plot, sci-fi movies) but, simply, because the Mars life could be “incompatible” with humans.

Well, the problem is that we DON’T KNOW which of these four options is true before we explore Mars in every possible places (and in its deep) that, with a so giant planet, may need many decades of systematic (and very expensive) exploration.

The last two options are the most risky for the Mars life OR for the human life, because, if the life still exists on Mars, but is very fragile, the astronauts (or, much more, a colony) may contaminate (or destroy entirely) the Mars life (as e.g. is happened with the Dodo) while, if the Mars life is aggressive for human biology, that life could kill the astronauts or, if they will have enough time to return to Earth (or if they will not be aware to being contaminated) the MARSonauts could contaminate or deeply modify or destroy entirely the life on Earth, that, clearly, is a too high risk for us.

Also if they will discover to be contaminated while they are still on Mars, but not in a so strong form to die very quickly, surely, they can’t come back to Earth for several months or years or decades (if not never) unless, a 100% successful antidote or vaccine for this Mars’ virus or disease, will be developed, tested and inoculated to all the MARSonauts, and also to all Earth’s inhabitants!

Then, the ONLY way to avoid (but not completely) these risks, is to explore Mars, for several decades, in search of life, on (and under) its surface, before send astronauts there (and, of course, only IF the Mars environment will result 100% safe for humans) as I’ve suggested SEVEN YEARS AGO in a ghostNASA article about my idea of a “Five Steps Journey to Mars” (see the “Fourth Step” of the list) with a remote-controlled, real-time, robotic exploration, driven by scientists that will live for years aboard a giant Mars Space Station, to avoid the slowness of the, Earth-controlled, rovers exploration, due to the, Earth-Mars-Earth, radio-delay.

The only other way to do the same real-time Mars exploration in search of life, is to send there several thousands of (highly sterilized) AI robots (if and when they will be available) with all the tools needed to deeply explore Mars, to say to us if, when and where there was (or there still is) any form of Mars life, of which kind it was or is, if it’s too fragile to enter in contact with humans or if it’s too aggressive and dangerous for us.

But, clearly, if we will be able to build and send to Mars thousands smart AI robots, send humans on Mars after them, will be too complex, risky, expensive and, most of all, COMPLETELY USELESS, unless we will be forced to transfer the whole mankind on Mars because the Earth is close to be disintegrated by a giant comet …