Are Trout and The Angels Being Overlooked?

It’s always an interesting development when a team that usually spends big decides that it is time to be more responsible. After years of national media attention for spending big and being willing to go “all in”, the attention quickly vanishes once the organization decides to rebuild the farm system and not spend in excess. The organization suddenly looks cheap and looks as if it doesn’t care about winning as much. There are no bold predictions about the organization gaining a playoff berth. Instead, they are ignored.

The Los Angeles Angels are opening up a season after one of their most quiet winters in recent history. The team made quite a few acquisitions, but the winter is being deemed a failure because they didn’t have the big free agent press conference, despite some glaring needs. While the rest of the division is getting much of the attention and the preseason picks as potential World Series teams, the Angels are being ignored.

And, that may be just how Angels Manager Mike Scioscia likes it. “Because the Angels did not sign a big name free agent, the experts are looking past this team in the AL West and I think that always helps. I think Mike Scioscia likes the fact no one is really paying attention and there’s something to be said about playing with a chip on your shoulder,” said Victor Rojas, the voice of the Los Angeles Angels since 2010.

The Angels are coming off an 85 win season that saw them fall just one game shy of a Wild Card berth. Mike Scioscia’s club came close despite having a defense that ranked just 9th in the American League according to defensive runs saved, a rotation that ranked 13th according to its WAR value, and an offense that ranked just 12th in runs scored and on base percentage. They were carried by Mike Trout and Albert Pujols’ power, developing ace Garret Richards, and an above average bullpen. In a typical Angels winter, they would’ve signed someone like Jason Heyward or Justin Upton to a long term deal to fill their left field needs. But, first year General Manager approached the winter far differently. It was so different that the Angels didn’t sign any of the big name free agents.

That’s led to the owner, Arte Moreno, being called cheap. Stories about the Angels no longer being willing to spend because of the luxury tax implications circulated. They are universally ignored in national forecasts as the American League West Division features three teams that look good on paper in the Astros, Rangers, and Mariners. And, the A’s always get the benefit of the doubt because of their history of unexpected success. Are the Angels due for big step back? Are they wasting the prime years of this generation’s best player? Or, is the lack of splash this winter hiding some strengths that could be enough to compete?

“I think the perception of the Angels, based on the recent signings over the last couple of years, is they’re always going to be the team that goes out locks down the guy they want regardless of the contract,” said Rojas. “What I don’t think people realize is not every player available fits every team. There’s a process of evaluating talent and deciphering if and how a particular player would fit in with your organizational needs. And then, of course, there are the financial implications of engaging a top tier free agent. For the Angels, not only were they looking at left field, but also looking at someone that would balance to the lineup (left-handed) and one that wouldn’t necessarily cost you your first round pick because of the new qualifying offer system.”

Rojas, whose career in professional baseball runs the gamete of player, coach, front office, national analyst, and now play by play announcer, sees the logic of Angels’ winter, rather than the negative most are portraying it to be. “With the way the market was shaking out and considering our minor league system needed to be restocked, the decision was made to not pursue the big name guys.” Rojas, like many other analysts, also believes that the pending expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement led to some uncertainty when it came to luxury tax and the implications of going over that limit. And, with the need to rebuild the farm system, the Angels were out of the big name market. But, that doesn’t mean that Billy Eppler didn’t upgrade the team.

“So I’m of the opinion there were multiple factors that came into play for the Angels this off-season when it came down to making decisions on the roster. It’s a roster, by the way, that does feature a brand new left-side of the infield with Andrelton Simmons and Yunel Escobar, a superstar in center with Mike Trout, a power hitting first baseman with Albert Pujols, a gold-glove right fielder in Kole Calhoun, a young catcher who established himself last year in Carlos Perez, along with young arms in the rotation, led by Garrett Richards, Andrew Heaney, Hector Santiago and Tyler Skaggs. So there are some positives about this team regardless of what’s been written about their off-season approach,” said Rojas.

Defense Doesn’t Make Headlines

Perhaps the single most overlooked move of the winter was the Angels trade for shortstop Andrelton Simmons. The 26 year old shortstop was acquired from the Atlanta Braves on November 12th along with 23 year old Minor League catcher/first baseman Jose Briceno for prospects Chris Ellis and Sean Newcomb and veteran shortstop Erick Aybar. The reaction to the deal was mostly about the prospects the Angels gave up. But, acquiring someone of Simmons’ elite defensive skill is quite an upgrade. Since coming to the Major Leagues in 2012, Simmons leads the Major League in Defensive Runs Saved with 113. That’s 24 more than the next player, Jason Heyward. To illustrate the upgrade a bit more, consider that Aybar, a popular Angels’ player, hasn’t posted a positive DRS since 2012. Simmons has posted a DRS of 25 or better in each of the past three seasons. The defensive upgrade is dramatic.

Offensively, Simmons isn’t as valuable. In four seasons, he’s posted a .256/.304/.362 batting line and has been pretty consistent from year to year, other than the 17 home runs he hit in 2012. But, his predecessor, Erick Aybar, has hit just .273/.308/.366 since 2013 and is entering his age 32 season. Simmons is just 26 years old and in his early prime. While there is still hope for some offensive growth, the Angels aren’t downgrading their offense by having Simmons in place of Aybar. At worst, they maintain the production they received from the shortstop position. And, they get the best defender at the sport preventing runs for them. Even better, he’s under contract until 2020 at a reasonable cost.

Every deal involving quality prospects is always scrutinized. As an industry, analysts always value prospects highly. Eppler takes a risk by giving two of his best prospects up in the deal, but getting an elite (in every sense of the word) defender in his prime who has already done it at the Major League level is worth the risk. Simmons isn’t just an above average shortstop. He isn’t just a great shortstop. He is — by a wide margin — the best defensive player in the sport. Given his age, he projects to be that for at least the next four years. That makes the risk of the deal worth it. And, most importantly, it upgrades the Angels in 2016.

“I think when you talk about the number of defensive runs saved over the course of his career, it tells you how valuable someone like Simmons can be to an organization. Now, that’s not taking anything away from Erick Aybar because I loved the way Erick played the game. He brought a lot of fight to this ball club on top of making some terrific plays throughout his Angels career. When you get the chance to add someone like Simmons and have under team control for five years, I think you have to pay the price to better yourself immediately and for the foreseeable future. Is it a steep price to pay? Sure, but it’ll also depend on how Newcombe and Ellis pan out. Prospects either get you to the promise land or they help land the players that will,” said Rojas.

Perhaps it is because we live in a fantasy baseball obsessed world where offensive is the only part of the game celebrated, but an elite defender like Andrelton Simmons is just as valuable, perhaps even more so. Defensive upgrades won’t put any team on the winter winners list, but it will improve a team’s chances.

The Rotation Question

Much of the Spring talk surrounding the Angels’ rotation has been about veterans Jered Weaver and CJ Wilson. Weaver hasn’t been throwing much harder than 78 MPH and Wilson is on the disabled list. Both are definitely a problem for the 2016 Angels as the two veterans are set to make a combined $40 million this season. The good news? They are both off the payroll at the end of the season. The better news? Neither is really needed for this season.

The Angels enter the season with a new staff leader in 27 year old Garrett Richards. The right hander is coming off a season in which he pitched 207.1 innings and allowed 181 hits, 76 walks, and struck out 176 batters. He compiled a 3.65 ERA and 3.86 FIP, while eliciting swings and misses with pitches in the strike zone at an 11.2 percent rate. He’s backed up by 24 year old southpaw Andrew Heaney (3.49 ERA, 3.73 FIP in 18 starts), 28 year old southpaw Hector Santiago, and 29 year old Matt Shoemaker. And, the staff could be bolstered by the eventual return of 24 year old lefty Tyler Skaggs, who showed promise in 2014 before having Tommy John Surgery. That’s a rotation with five potential starters under the age of 29. While perhaps lacking the prototypical ace, the Angels do have a staff that could be one of the more complete rotations in the American League. With teams struggling to find fourth or fifth starters, the Angels have five young starters and two veterans in Weaver and Wilson, who could contribute a bit. While more should be expected from a pair making $40 million, the Angels enter the season not counting on them.

“There’s a chance they (the rotation) could very special, especially if Tyler Skaggs comes back 100 percent after Tommy John surgery and his early game efforts seem to indicate he’s on track,” said Rojas.

The rotation doesn’t project to be spectacular. But, the Angels do have a rotation that is capable of competing every night. Not all teams — even playoff favorites — can say that. If the young rotation is average, the Angels can compete. If they are more than that, the playoff picture gets even more crowded.

Trout and Pujols

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The Angels’ lineup is powered by Trout and Pujols[/caption]

As much as the defensive upgrade, the potential of the rotation, and the solid lineup pieces like Calhoun, Johnny Giovatella, and Yunel Escobar, the Angels are powered by the best player in Major League Baseball, Mike Trout. The 24 year old is supported by future Hall of Famer, Albert Pujols. The tandem, despite so much success, still have that intense drive of an elite athlete.

It either says something about us as a society or his greatness — likely a combination of the two — that Mike Trout’s production has become more about what’s expected rather than celebrated. Quite simply, few players in the history of Major League Baseball have ever started a career like Trout. Since his first full season in 2012, Trout’s average season is .308/.403/.568 with 34 doubles, 8 triples, 34 home runs, 95 RBI, 114 runs scored, and 25 stolen bases. He has one MVP award and has finished in 2nd in every other season.

When putting Trout into perspective, it is difficult to see where he can improve. He’s just entering his prime seasons. What more can he do? Is there more?

Victor Rojas sees Mike Trout on a daily basis. He sees the type of work ethic that drives Trout. “I think because of the talent he possesses and the ease in which he performs, people don’t realize how much work he puts in before games. Maybe it’s his age or the fact he’s teammates with Albert Pujols or a combination of both, but he’s a sponge when it comes to the game of baseball. Whether it’s on the tee in the tunnels underneath the ballpark or the early rounds of batting practice, he approaches his work with maddening precision. There always seems to be a reason for everything he does, whether it’s in spring training or the regular season.”

The juxtaposition of Trout and Pujols in the lineup is noticeable. 15 years ago, Albert Pujols had a historic beginning to his career. Pujols’ first four seasons produced an average of .333/.413/.623 with 47 doubles and 40 home runs. Pujols generated the same type of feeling a decade ago as Trout does now. You don’t want to miss either of their at bats.

And while Pujols’ long term deal with the Angels is more about payment of past production, Pujols did hit 40 home runs in his age 35 season, despite dealing with a plantar injury. “Whether it’s Albert or any superstar, it’s extremely difficult to continue to produce at such a high level and sustain it for the entirety of their career. There’s no doubt Albert hasn’t been the same all-around player he was with the Cardinals but that’s not to diminish what he’s been able to do, at times, with physical limitations,” said Rojas.

While the Angels aren’t getting the masher from St. Louis, they have a power hitting first baseman who, last season, finished second among first basemen in home runs and is ranked 12th according to WAR among first basemen since signing with the Angels. And, it seems like Pujols and Trout drive each other.

“Albert’s work ethic and desire to perform at the highest level, it is definitely still there. As a matter of fact, I think by having Albert on the Angels, it’s helped Mike Trout continue to evolve as a person/player/celebrity. They’re constantly attached at the hip at the ballpark, working in the tunnels to hitting in the same group during BP,” said Rojas, “ I believe Albert still thinks he’s the same player he was in his heyday with the Cardinals and while the numbers may not necessarily bear that out, the drive and motivation he brings on a daily basis is certainly not lost on us and most definitely not lost in the clubhouse.”

When the team’s two best players are also its hardest working, it bodes well for the drive of a team.

So, Can the Angels Get Into The Playoffs?

Much has to go right for the Angels to make the playoffs. But, the same can be said for every team in Major League Baseball. The young rotation has to perform. The defense must be as good as projected. The lineup pieces have to support the main trio of Trout, Pujols, and Calhoun.

All of those requirements are not reaches. All of that can happen. In a division that projects to be competitive from top to bottom, the winner may be the first one that gets to 90. With five teams beating each other up, each team has the capability of staying in the race. While the playoffs look to be unlikely, the Angels aren’t the cellar dwellers many are projecting. The lack of headlines and the portrayal of their free agency approach obscures the fact that there are many positives about the club. After years of being favorites, the Angels enter the season with little fanfare. Perhaps, that’s the way they like it.