Indians Bet On Napoli Rebound
The Cleveland Indians enter the 2016 season with high hopes. They are coming off a season that saw them recover from a terrible first half (42–46) to finish with 81 wins and in third place in the American League Central Division. The strength of the team is obvious; their first three starting pitchers can match up with any team. The rotation’s 15.9 WAR value was third best in the American League and their 3.76 FIP was an AL best. With Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Danny Salazar fronting the rotation and a deep bullpen, the Indians have a pitching staff that is World Series worthy. The trick for General Manager Mike Chernoff is to build off of that strength.
“We recognize that one of the greatest strengths of our team is our rotation, and we have looked to build around that. There is certainly an interaction between pitching and defense that is important and that we build around,” said Chernoff, who enters his first season as the Indians’ General Manager after spending the previous 13 years working in the Indians front office.
Last season’s strong finish was partially a product of upgrading the defense. “We saw our team take-off last year in the second half. While it wasn’t entirely due to our defense improving, it did also coincide with adding (Francisco) Lindor and (Giovanny) Urshela to the Major League team, which really helped our infield defense,” said Chernoff.
With a potentially elite rotation and a good core of young players, the Indians went to work this winter to address the team’s biggest weakness: offensive power. While the 2015 club finished third in the American League in on base percentage, it ranked a mediocre 9th in slugging percentage and 13th in home runs. The need for more power and a bit more lineup balance were high priorities. But, the Indians could not ignore three factors when adding players. First, they couldn’t downgrade their defense at the expense of the offense. Second, they needed to add the right type of veteran player to help with the young core. And, finally, they couldn’t spend big as a mid-market team.
“Overall, team construction, and how each player interacts with the others, is really important, but it’s also impossible to find the perfect fits. In the end, what is most important is that we score more runs than we give up in each game, so if we start out with a good pitching staff and defense, we leave ourselves more room for error with the bats,” said Chernoff.
That philosophy had the Indians searching for players who may be undervalued. With offense at a premium, power bats — even the flawed ones — are generally paid well. As big names signed big contracts, the Indians waited. They decided to bring in a player who was coming off of the two worst seasons of his career.
It is easy to forget that baseball players are actually real people. We sometimes look at them as these guys who get paid a lot of money to play a sport. There is a sense that they are immune to the things that the rest of us go through. We forget that they have families, money issues, and face difficulties that we regular people have to face. Like the real world, money and a certain job cannot mask the realities of life.
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Napoli struggled in Boston in 2015 after his surgery.[/caption]
Through that lens, it is easy to write off Mike Napoli, the Cleveland Indians new first baseman/designated hitter. Napoli’s stock had fallen so much that he was traded last August to the Texas Rangers in exchange for cash or a player to be named later. That was after posting a .207/.307/.386 line in 98 games for the Boston Red Sox. If Napoli hadn’t played a key role in the Red Sox’s 2013 World Series Championship, he likely wouldn’t have received such playing time, given his limited production. But, Napoli responded to being back in Texas and hit well, hitting .295/.396/.513 in 35 games.
Perhaps Napoli responded to being back in a pennant race. Perhaps it was just a small sample size. Or, perhaps Napoli’s non-baseball, radical surgery finally healed and he started to find some sort of equilibrium.
Mike Napoli has spent a large portion of his career dealing with obstructive sleep apnea. This left him dealing with fatigue throughout the majority of his career. Considering the unrelenting 162 game season, players are always dealing with a form of fatigue. However, that fatigue is exacerbated even further with a lack of sleep. Napoli wasn’t sleeping well at night, often waking up choking because of his condition. He would nap during batting practice and sometimes even have to be removed from games. While many people suffer from sleep apnea, most don’t have to perform at an elite physical level. Napoli spent the first seven years of his career as a catcher, the most demanding position on the field. He would transition to first base when he signed with the Rangers and play there full time when he signed with the Red Sox. Despite dealing with a lack of sleep and all of the complications from it, Napoli would post an average season of .263/.371/.497 with 23 doubles, 24 home runs, and 70 RBI from 2011 through 2014.
But, Napoli wasn’t sleeping and decided to have surgery to correct the problem before the 2015 season. The surgery involved breaking his jaw and resetting it to allow for better sleep. He was back for Spring Training with a heavy beard to cover the scars from the surgery. Napoli struggled in the early going with the Red Sox. He hit just .162/.269/.250 in April. He did hit seven home runs in May, but still struggled through June and July. It’s easy to point to him being 33 years old and blaming the natural regression of a mid-30’s player. There were not many stories about the idea of having a radical, invasive surgery impacting an athlete’s ability to perform. Napoli’s September and October offer hope that he may be able to be the player he was during his previous run in Texas and Boston.
With home run power at a premium and Napoli’s excellent finish, a decent contract offer was likely. Napoli didn’t get those offers. In a Winter that saw Chris Young get two years and $13 million, Denard Span get three years and $31 million, and John Jaso get two years and $8 million, Napoli didn’t get much attention despite a strong finish and a track record of consistent power. That track record would be at least 17 home runs in each of his last eight seasons. He would wait until January 5th to sign a one year, $7 million deal with the Cleveland Indians.
The Indians, usually an organization that looks for bargains in free agency may have found one at a bargain cost. “Mike Napoli fit our needs really well. As a small-market team, we have to be conscious of longer commitments, so as Nap became open to considering a 1-year deal, it made it really appealing to try to work towards getting something done,” said Mike Chernoff.
With an opening at first base and designated hitter — -Carlos Santana will share those spots with Napoli — -the Indians brought in a much needed right handed power bat. A year removed from his surgery and better rested, Napoli could be in line for a rebound season, even at the age of 34. “As he has continued to recover from his surgery, we have seen his bat and power really coming together. We think he complements our lineup well as a right-handed power bat, provides solid first base defense, and adds a great element to our clubhouse,” said Chernoff.
While Spring Training statistics should be largely ignored, in some cases they can give a glimpse into a player. Mike Napoli would be this case, considering the need for him to demonstrate he can still perform. A strong Spring Training coupled with his strong finish to 2015 would be a good indication that Napoli is healthy. In 49 Spring at bats, Napoli has hit .376/.448/.633. Obviously, those numbers are meaningless in terms of expected production in 2016, but they are an indication that Napoli’s power (4 home runs) and patience are still there. And, most importantly, it’s an indication that he is, indeed, healthy. Considering his 2015 Spring Training struggles and early 2015 struggles, it can be safely assumed that Napoli is healed from his surgery.
Of course, there is risk for the Indians. They are taking a chance — albeit a one year chance — on a player in his mid-30’s who is two years removed from hitting 20 home runs. Chernoff and the Indians realize the risk, but evaluated more than just looking at the numbers. “He had a down season with the bat in Boston last year, but his defense at first base was really good, and he rebounded a bit offensively at the end of the year.”
For a club that has built a reputation on making analytical decisions, the Indians looked at the whole picture when deciding to bring Napoli in. They looked at his surgery and his recovery. They looked at his defense. And, they also looked at the composition of the club. “Nap has a reputation for being a great clubhouse leader. He’s a true competitor who helps hold his teammates accountable. We’ve already seen those things this Spring,” said Chernoff.
It is easy to say that Mike Napoli’s 2015 season was simply a sign of regression. After all, he is a player in his mid-30’s and someone with a limited skill set. Despite all of his consistency, he has only topped 30 home runs once and he’s never driven in 100 runs. While the ceiling isn’t as high as other players, the floor isn’t quite as low either. Even when dealing with the post-surgery difficulties, Napoli did hit 18 home runs last season. More can be expected, given better health. Mike Napoli is an excellent bounce back candidate given that he is a year removed from surgery and will be better rested during the season.
If the Indians are right about him and the other veteran additions they’ve made, they could find themselves playing into October, even without having an elite offense. In the past few seasons we’ve seen strong pitching clubs like the Mets and Royals make deep runs in the postseason. They Indians have that type of pitching. And, if their young offense is supplemented by a rebound season from Mike Napoli, they could be that next team to make a surprising October run.
