“A theory of change statement is a tool to understand your strategy and how (or if) it will work. Being able to articulate a clear theory of change statement is a prerequisite to an effective campaign. To put it bluntly, if you can’t write your strategy out in a sentence that makes sense, then it probably won’t work.
A theory of change statement uses this format:
If we do (TACTICS)
then (STRATEGIC GOAL or CHANGE)
Because (REASON)”–”Organizing: People, Power, Change”, p. 35
GCDO Theory of Change:
IF we build and institute highly useable systems that prioritize meeting human needs while effectively educating others on why and how to use them
THEN humanity will be able to advance beyond current flawed systems that perpetuate unnecessary suffering
BECAUSE people will have first-hand knowledge of practicable systems that are objectively better at meeting human needs
Why is this our theory of change?
It’s very clear that our current systems are failing to meet human needs, let alone animal needs. Even if we appear to make short-term progress through innovations within the current systems, other changes both planned by decision-makers and unplanned through systemic crises soon reverse this progress and leave us scrambling for solutions. Therefore, we need to move away from the current systems. People have so far proposed methods of system change that appear at first glance to work but actually don’t. These are: electoralism, trade unionism, and guerillaism.
Electoralism contends that if we elect the right people, then we can make them institute the changes needed to create the new system either incrementally or all at once. The problem with this idea is that it conflates formal democratic processes (such as voting) which are used during the election, with actual allowance of control by the people after the election. What actually happens is that the elected politicians are not given the authority to actually challenge private ownership of economic systems. If they tried to intervene and take property away, they would face an array of challenges starting with unlimited sums of money being pumped into the campaigns of their opponents, current propaganda systems which are controlled by capitalists being used to support their challengers, and if all else fails the elected politician’s time in office will simply be forcibly ended. There is no way to change the system electorally. People continue to believe in electoralism because small success stories are proffered in the news to create the illusion that larger or even wholesale electoral victories that create system change are actually possible; and that they believe that electoralism is the only moral way to institute a democracy (which it’s not). They are trained to believe that non-electoral process of change is fundamentally anti-democratic and therefore wrong and carries an unacceptably high risk of resulting in totalitarian strongmen controlling society.
Trade unionism believes that organizing the workplace is a key to meaningful worker power.
Like electoralism, the regressive forces of capitalism fade under the enormous economic duties designed to stave off a recession.
For unionists, the problem with this line of thought and action is the owners still retain most of the power. Multi-year contracts are temporary fixes to low wages, poor benefits, or other conditions. Strikes are disruptive to worker lives and the factory. This chaotic back and forth cripples the company, leading to layoffs from diminished productivity. The bottom line is that the owners and investors have control of the company, the production, the sales, and the workers’ lives. Unionism is a short-term fix.
But the multi-year contract satisfies a cohort for half a generation at best. The economic gains fade over time.
Guerrilla-ist tactics are no solution to what is ultimately a system problem.
This is our assessment of some popular progressive (liberal) strategies.
Electoralism: If we try really really hard to elect our favorite politicians, then they will pass laws that help us meet our needs.
Trade Unionism: If we all join unions and agree to strike, then we can force employers to pay us more and make our jobs better which will help us meet our needs.
Guerillaism: If we arm ourselves sufficiently, we can take over the government and make it do what we want, which will help us meet our needs.
Green Lantern Theories:
–Meme sharing
–Electing enough progressives
–Getting enough people to read theory
The Utopian Form of Green Lanternism, aka Apply Education to Others: If we just teach everyone really really well, we will reach a critical mass of understanding wherein the masses will finally have sufficient knowledge and motivation to change our system, so that we meet our needs.
Anarchism: Having a new system is not a worthwhile goal. Instead we should just act in accordance with basic principles of anti-authoritarianism and mutual respect, and by so doing we will eliminate our current system so that we meet our needs.
Defeatism: Change by us isn’t possible, because the system doesn’t include or allow mechanisms that people from below can use to change it. All we can do is wait and suffer.
Liberalism: We have been struggling to advance beyond forces of ignorance and bigotry but our basic strategy so far hasn’t been wrong and we just need to keep doing what we’ve been doing and we’ll soon overcome all remaining challenges and meet our needs.
Conservatism: We’ve made a wrong turn and we need to go back to the ways we used to live as they were a better model for how everyone should live so that we can meet our needs.
