This is where execs make their money. The common fan sees past performance and equates that to future success. However, often times these big deals for aging stars look really bad, really fast. They are very hard to get out of as well. In this growing salary cap era I would continue to focus on trying to find guys going into their primes or that are overlooked and see what I can get. Those contracts will be gold in a few years.
This is an outrageous example but people were criticizing the Warriors when they signed Curry to that 4 year/$44 million dollar deal. I don’t see anything resembling that in this years free agency but finding those types of deals is the way to the top.