Taal eruption 2020: how do we anticipate the impacts?
One way is to look back into history.
Historical accounts of an eruption in the year 1754 — one of the ‘worse-case scenarios’ — put some details on a six-month period of heightened activity of Taal Volcano in the Philippines. A great summary of those accounts can be found here: https://www.rappler.com/move-ph/issues/disasters/93809-taal-volcano-1754-eruption. Like a lot of historical records in the Philippines, these are based on writings of Spanish priests. Let me just pull an excerpt from the article:
‘The black smoke streaming upwards from the main crater was also topped by a “huge tempest cloud” where thunderstorms would form. Forks of lightning would then cut through the smoke, said [Father] Buencochillo’
Does that look familiar?
If Augustinian priest Fr. Buencochillo had a smartphone, he probably would have had similar footage (except maybe with a different choice of expletives).
Prior to the 1754 eruption, Chinese sailboats (junks) used to be able to sail into Taal Lake. They went through Pansipit River from Balayan Bay to trade with towns *inside* Taal Lake. I’m not sure how the 18th century junks looked like, but I like to imagine Taal Lake looked something like below:
Spanish ships would also seek shelter in Taal Lake then (in connection to the galleon trade between Manila and Acapulco). As the lake was at the same level as the sea, and with a wide Pansipit River, the lake water was brackish (Taal is now a freshwater lake with lots of Tilapia).
The 1754 eruption material — some of which was just like the ash what we see today — buried surrounding towns, blocked the river, and, in consequence, the river became narrower. People migrated, towns moved.
Nowadays, some of the sites of previously buried towns around Taal Lake have been repopulated. The accounts of eruptions past have given us an idea of what to expect for these places.
Present-day ash fall has also reached Metro Manila.
Geologists also run computer models and study rocks to anticipate certain scenarios that the historical record misses. After all, Taal has been active for longer than local human history. For example, volcanic deposits more then 5,000 years old exist.
How long will the eruption last? It can be in a matter of days or months. @phivolcs_dost continues to monitor the volcano 24/7 with a wide array of instruments and experience, and will report about what is happening.
I never was a fan of that ferris wheel.
