Weather Update — Sun This Weekend, Jose, More Development in the Tropics

A broad area of high pressure will dominate the southeastern states through the middle of next week resulting in sunny weather conditions across the western Carolina’s. Light winds, abundant sunshine, and day time high’s in the mid 80’s will be the predominate description of the weather short-mid term.

Out the west, a short wave trough will deepen over the Rockies over the weekend. A boundary will develop extending S into Mexico, allowing for several disturbances develop keeping weather unsettled the inter-mountain west through mid term.

Tropics

Jose

Jose is currently a Tropical Storm will maximum sustained winds of 70 mph. Movement is WNW at 7 mph

There is pretty good confidence in a strong area of high pressure, situated over the Southeast, keeping the storm off shore through next week. However, there is a appreciable uncertainty about how far west Jose will track as it continues north toward the Mid-Atlantic. A more westward track would mean some increased risk for tropical storm wind gusts as well as storm surge and coastal flooding hazards for the Mid Atlantic-New England coast line.

The GFS model has the storm gradually turning out to sea as it slides up the East coast next week; however, this is not before coming particularly close to Massachusetts. With this scenario, a moderate wind and minor surge threat may exist for New England coastal communities. This possibility will be something to watch for residents.

More Tropical Development

The NHC is also watching for the development from two tropical waves out in the central Atlantic. The first disturbance is positioned about 800 miles SW of the Cape Verde Islands and is tracking west at about 15 mph. While the storm currently appears to be struggling, forecasters think that the environmental conditions over the next week will be conducive development. The NHC gives this storm about a 70% chance of development over the next 5 days. The system could be a depression by early next week.

Area 2. Another area showers and storms has become more organized over the past 48 hours. It’s located just south of the Cape Verde Islands moving west northwestward at about 10–15 mph. NHC gives the disturbance a 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours. Forecast think that this storm will become a tropical depression over the next few days. However, upper level winds will become increasingly unfavorable for further development. This may result in a lull in intensification in the mid term.

Overall, there’s no reason to expect that these storms will dissipate as they begin the long track west over the Atlantic. Without a turn to the north, these storms will likely continue to progress westward with gradual strengthening over time. Waters in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico remain very warm and supportive for hurricanes. For general preparedness, coastal states should remain vigilant as hurricane season is only half over.