Is it Man vs. Machine… Or Man vs. Self?
The timing’s not great. Every day you read of some new mass layoff hitting even the FAANGs we once thought could do nothing but grow and allow their employees to build pickle ball courts and buy doomsday bunkers with their generous stock options. Even The Walt Disney Company, which I personally love and consider the bellwether of U.S. corporations, recently initiated a 3% reduction in force.
In their copy/paste releases, as well as just about every segment I watch on CNBC, the fingers are pointed at the macro economic conditions. Inflation. War. Continued supply chain challenges. Uncertainty with China. Related pull backs in consumer and capital spending. And all of that is true — I saw it first hand and rather stressfully as a CEO. But it’s far from the only reason many people now find themselves worrying about their security. The truth is, it might not even be the primary one.
Remember “The Great Resignation” of just about eighteen months ago? Employees with innumerable job options and free government money were deciding en-masse they wanted to go Instagram Kerouac and roam the country. #Vanlife. Or they were boldly marching into managers’ offices needing a 30% raise that very day because they had ten recruiters calling them. The expectation seemed to be that when gas money for the formers’ vans would eventually run out, the latter recruiters would still be frothing with offers and ready to hear all about the true magnificence of Yosemite. Did they not see the ships lined up outside LA harbor all the way down to Baja and connect that perhaps things might be taking a turn?
More recently over the past year, The Great Resignation has had a sibling that I’ll call The Great I Don’t Wanna — as in, I don’t want to go back to the office… and so, despite policy, I won’t. Most every CEO of a business not inherently designed to be purely virtual or remote has struggled with this issue. In an attempt to recover from the pandemic, back-to-office and/or remote working policies have been rolled out. In best cases, they have been met with the whimper of hand-sitting and employees just largely ignoring their employers’ desires. In other cases, the return to office requests have been met more severely with outrage and protests. It’s true that we can’t simply roll back the clock to a pre-pandemic time, but we also can’t stay in our pandemic pajama bottoms and Ugg slippers forever.
What it boils down to is that against the gloomy macro economic environment, People have picked a poor time to choose the hammock. Or did the choice of the hammock hasten the macro economic decline? It’s a chicken and egg question, I suppose.
Speaking of bad timing, throw in a third element — the coronation of AI. Just as the situation for the workforce is no longer phone calls from ten recruiters a day and is mass layoffs instead, along comes the maturation of technology that in some ways can fully replace people and/or make work more efficient (also allowing for smaller workforces). Unlike inflation that will eventually pass, it’s an existential threat, the long term impact of which is yet unknown but likely not good for many unless you are an AI programmer. I’ve spent the past month immersed in ChatGPT for fun and I could fill at least five pages spilling all the immediate ways I see industries being impacted by AI over the coming five years. It’s no longer one of those “next big thing” hypes (like metaverse), but something that is here, real, and inevitable. This is fact.
It adds up to a hell of a time for some people to take their stand that they can’t come into an office because their Covid dog gets separation anxiety at daycare. Think of it like a “Terminator” movie: Against an increasingly apocalyptic landscape, the machines are rising up against people and winning at the moment. However, I’ve always been an optimist who especially believes we rise the strongest in the times of darkest struggle, so no need yet for Arnold to flip on the Ray Bans or Keeanu to drop any red pills.
Simply put, there’s one inherent advantage people have in the war against both The Matrix and the macro economic environment — themselves. AI can address Productivity and outperform many people, but ultimately Culture is what truly makes a business successful. And what is Culture? It’s the human elements — passion, engagement, collaboration, detail, care, love, soul. It’s the humanity and what a job all means to us. If the criticality of Culture isn’t obvious, it should be.
Take pizza as an example. AI and robotics are already making pizzas (true!), but watch Chris Bianco on “Chef’s Table Pizza” and tell me if a robot is going to sweat the ingredient details that ultimately make one commodity product head and shoulders above another? It is not. The heart, soul, and, as Bob Iger pointed out in his call for a return to office, imagination ultimately make the difference… and no matter what a computer scientist thinks, a machine will never capture the nuance those things bring to any job or endeavor. They will never spontaneously produce a big idea, sweat the minutia of detail, or create a moment of truly unexpected delight.
Also take Ritz Carlton or Four Seasons. I can easily envision ways AI can automate, say, 25% of their workforce. A bot could show me to my room, or voice activation sensors could get me my drink on the pronto (“Hey Ritz, another martini!”). But would I feel the way I do in justification of their higher rates when I receive one of those perfect smiles or greetings that are the result of, as Ritz calls it, “Ladies and gentlemen serving ladies and gentlemen?” Similarly, I use maps, guides, and reviews all the time when I am traveling to find a place to eat or go for a run, but the experience is usually underwhelming compared to the results, undefinable sense, and connection I get from a concierge who seems to really love their job. Without the human magic, and other than really good pillows (which are chosen by the senses of a human), what would differentiate a Ritz or Four Seasons from the brands a tier down that also have travertine lobbies?
To put it bluntly, People simply giving a shit again is the way forward in these times with so much stacked against a healthy and vibrant workforce. But they have to truly give that shit. They have to understand that advantages over something like AI come when two human hearts and minds come together in person. The greatness of a company often forms over laughter at the water cooler. The ideas that can change the game don’t happen in a set Zoom window and time slot, but often scribbling together impromptu on a whiteboard. They have to remember that a good job is an honor and privilege for which you must go the extra mile, not an entitlement whenever you decide you want it. Otherwise, if you’re just going to be a two-dimensional image occasionally on a screen who submits uninspired work in between dog walks and green juice visits, why shouldn’t employers battle inflation and a tough macro economic environment by seeking the efficiencies and cost advantages of AI?
It’s not Man vs. Inflation right now. That’s cyclical and will pass — we know that. Man vs. Machine is very much the more existential threat, and like any great hero’s journey, unless Man first defeats Self’s decline of the past few years, the machines will win in continuing to downgrade the need and value of large swaths of workforce. But rest assured, Man is empowered to stay as relevant as ever. We just need to put the pandemic in the past, re-engage, and get back to work.
