Stories linking Erik ten Hag to the Manchester United managerial position have begun to intensify in recent weeks, with talks and interviews believed to be taking place with him and several other candidates during the international break. However, interest in ten Hag is unsurprisingly high and United will have to act quickly and decisively if they believe he’s the man for the job.
In this article, we will take a look at his managerial record, primarily focusing on his time at Ajax, to try and see why such a large section of the fan base think that he should be the club’s no.1 candidate. I am far from an expert on Erik ten Hag’s career or Dutch football, but this is an attempt to educate myself as much as others on our potential new manager.
Contents:
- Fact File
- Coaching Career Prior to Ajax
- Ajax (Eredivisie, Domestic Cup and European Record)
- Transfers & Squad Rebuild
- Statistical Comparison with Europe’s Elite — Domestic League 21/22
- Statistical Comparison with Europe’s Elite — Champions League 21/22
- Tactics & Style of Play
- Erik ten Hag’s United
- Doubts/Weaknesses
- Conclusion
Fact File
Erik ten Hag is 52 years of age, Dutch and was born in Haaksbergen, Netherlands. He has a wife and three children and is very private away from the pitch.
In his playing days, he was a centre-back/defensive midfielder for the likes of FC Twente, De Graafschap, RKC Waalwijk and FC Utrecht; winning the Eerste Divisie with De Graafschap in 1990–91 and the KNVB Cup with FC Twente in 2000–01. He retired from playing in 2002 at the age of 32.
Coaching career prior to Ajax
To describe ten Hag as a young, up-and-coming new coach is slightly misleading. At 52, he’s around the same age as Pep (51) & Conte (52), only two years older than Pochettino (50) and just two years younger than Klopp (54). Many, including myself, hadn’t heard of ten Hag before that 18/19 Champions League campaign. However, he has been in first team management for almost 10 years now, so here we will take a look at his journey so far and how he ended up at Ajax.
FC Twente (2002–2009)
Following his retirement in 2002, ten Hag took on the role of FC Twente u17 manager and the following season was promoted to u19 manager where he remained for 3 years. Then in 2006, he became assistant manager to Fred Rutten. He remained in this role for another 3 years, also working alongside former Manchester United assistant manager Steve McClaren. In the video below (3:32), Erik describes, with a smile on his face, the time he met Sir Alex Ferguson before FC Twente’s UEFA Cup match against Manchester City.
In a recent interview with The Telegraph, McClaren was quoted as saying “Only one coach could analyse games like him — and that was Fergie”. He was obviously hugely impressed by his new assistant, recalling the first time they met:
“I knew that pre-season was due to start the next day and I said to Erik, ‘Have you got our first day organised?’ Over the next two hours he talked me through six weeks of pre-season work. Every last detail was accounted for. Every document ready. Every drinks break planned. He would say, ‘There is 20 minutes here for you to do your specific session and then we do this’. I had never seen anything like it before or since. For both individuals and for the team the work was the best I had seen.”
He goes onto say how he has a clear philosophy of how he wants to play football — something Ralf Rangnick has highlighted before as key for any manager — and how he is very disciplined and tactically outstanding.
PSV Eindhoven (2009–2012)
Ten Hag then rejoined Fred Rutten as assistant manager at PSV Eindhoven in July 2009, where he remained until March 2012. In the video above (2:48), ten Hag talks about his relationship with Rutten, how he’s been a mentor to him both as a player and a coach.
Go Ahead Eagles (2012–2013)
In July 2012, ten Hag was given his first opportunity in management by Marc Overmars, a shareholder at Eerste Divisie side Go Ahead Eagles (he would go on to work again with Overmars in his current role at Ajax). In his one season with the side, ten Hag lead them to their first Eredivisie promotion in 17 years. They finished 6th in the league but gained promotion through the play-offs, with 1.72 PPM (Points Per Match), 2.10 GF/90, 1.46 GA/90 and a 46.15% win percentage. I believe he used a 4–2–3–1 formation during the campaign and it was the first time working with a young Quincy Promes, who he would later re-sign at Ajax in 2019.
Bayern Munich II (2013–2015)
Following promotion in 2013, ten Hag resigned as coach and joined Bayern Munich II, where he would stay for 2 years. During his time in Bavaria, he was able to work alongside and learn from First Team Coach Pep Guardiola, as well as Sporting Director Matthias Sammer. By his own admission, Pep had a large influence on ten Hag’s preferred style of play. In Video 1 above (10:25), he explains
“Guardiola also wants to win, but it has to be done in style, with good attacking football.”
He describes how Pep was influenced by Johan Cruyff and that his mentality is “always thinks differently, always attacking” and it would appear ten Hag now shares a similar philosophy. In The Telegraph article quoted above, McClaren also reveals how over in Germany, they called him ‘Mini Pep’.
In a different interview, ten Hag has also been quoted saying:
“ Only once in his career has Pep made a mistake — in his first year at Manchester City when he completely underestimated the power and speed of the Premier League. He realized that you can’t play the kind of football he loves without having a couple of physically strong athletes — and so he brought them in. So he’s not a stubborn coach. Yes, he is stubborn in his philosophy, but not in the execution, and that makes him the best.”
He clearly rates Pep very highly and I imagine is looking to emulate his style and success on the pitch — but with his own twist. It also shows he’s not blind to the fact he will have to adapt his methods if he were ever to be given a chance in the Premier League. Below is another example, from February 2019, of ten Hag revealing his admiration for Guardiola:
“I learned a lot from Guardiola. His philosophy is sensational, what he did in Barcelona, Bayern and now with Manchester City, that attacking and attractive style sees him win a lot. It’s this structure that I’ve tried to implement with Ajax.”
In his first season with Bayern II, they finished as champions of Regionalliga Bayern, the fourth tier of German football. However, they ultimately lost in the promotion play-off on away goals to Fortuna Köln, conceding in the 94th minute. The following year they still finished a respectable 2nd. In his two years there, ten Hag averaged 2.14 PPM, 2.17 GF/90, 0.88 GA/90 and a win percentage of 66.67%.
FC Utrecht (2015–2017)
In summer 2015, ten Hag accepted the FC Utrecht managerial position and with Co Adriaanse leaving the club, he was also made Sporting Director. The previous two seasons had seen Utrecht finish 10th & 11th in the Eredivisie. Yet in ten Hag’s first season with the club, they managed a 5th place finish, narrowly missing out in the play-off final for European football to Heracles Almelo. He also managed to guide them to the KNVB Cup Final, eventually losing 2–1 to Feyenoord. As a result, ten Hag was awarded the 2016 Rinus Michels Award, the prize for the best manager in the Eredivisie.
16/17 saw them jump one more place to 4th and once again they reached the play-off final for Europe. Having lost the first leg 3–0 to AZ Alkmaar, ten Hag’s side turned it around in the second and eventually won 7:3 on penalties.
In the following season, despite getting past the 2nd & 3rd round of Europa League qualifiers against Valletta & Lech Poznan respectively, and beating Roberto Mancini’s Zenit St Petersburg 1–0 in the first leg of the 4th round, they narrowly lost 2–0 AET in the second leg and were knocked out of Europe. Erik left FC Utrecht in December 2017 positioned 6th in the league.
Over his 2.5 years in Utrecht, ten Hag achieved 1.74 PPM, 1.82 GF/90, 1.37 GA/90 and a win percentage of 50.45%.
As you can see from the link above, ten Hag was operating on a minimal budget at FC Utrecht, spending just £2,295,000 over 3 years with a negative net spend of -£20,413,000. He helped to develop players like Sébastien Haller (who he would also later sign at Ajax), Timo Letschert, Bart Ramselaar and Sofyan Amrabat who were all then sold on for decent fees. Utrecht’s slightly below par performances during the beginning of the 17/18 campaign should have been expected, considering the number of first team players who left during the 2016 & 2017 summer transfer windows.
The article linked above is a fascinating interview given by ten Hag in November 2017, one month before he accepted Ajax’s proposal. He talks about dealing with different personalities & minds in a squad; the mentality of Cristiano Ronaldo; team building, high demands, focus and hard work in training; and how best to develop youth in Dutch football. There is also a quote towards the end of the piece from former Ajax midfielder Urby Emanuelson:
“Ten Hag thinks more international than many a Dutch coach. It’s so clear that he worked in Germany, with Bayern and with Pep Guardiola. In Holland, adapting the 4–3–3 system is almost blasphemy, but Ten Hag uses different systems as a weapon. He is doing what Pep is doing. He changes things, he challenges beliefs and wants players to be flexible. And Barcelona and Man City and Bayern, they all do it. They play 3 or 4 different systems, sometimes in one match.”
During his time in Utrecht, ten Hag mostly used a narrow 4–4–2 diamond, with the full-backs providing the width & crosses, Rico Strieder (who followed ten Hag from Bayern) at the base, with Haller down the centre. This resulted in lots of rotations and overloads in the middle, with the likes of Ayoub, Ramselaar, Labyad and Barazite all looking to combine and feed Haller.
The Coaches’ Voice article below provides a brief insight into ten Hag’s system at FC Utrecht before it continues to analyse his tactics at Ajax.
The following videos are highlights of two FC Utrecht games during the 15/16 and 16/17 seasons. Video 2 is a 4–2 comeback win against Heracles Almelo, despite playing 45 mins with only 10 men, and Video 3 is the previously mentioned Play-off Final victory against AZ Alkmaar. It’s clear from these and other clips how ten Hag asks his full-backs to push high and get plenty of players in the opposition box. They weren’t afraid to go more direct into Haller as well if the game situation required that.
Ajax (2017- )
On the 21st December 2017, ten Hag was appointed as head coach of AFC Ajax following the dismissal of Marcel Keizer — reuniting with Director of Football Marc Overmars and working alongside ex-Manchester United goalkeeper and now Ajax CEO Edwin van der Sar. Overmars has since resigned from his position after it emerged he sent a series of ‘inappropriate messages to female colleagues’.
Most people know where the Ajax story goes from now, but what’s less apparent is how much ten Hag has actually improved them. Fans of other clubs assume Ajax dominate domestically anyway, so what’s so special about ten Hag? In the following section, we will take a look at his Eredivisie record up to this point (27th March 2022) and compare it to previous seasons since the turn of the century.
Eredivisie Record
Many argue that the competition in the Netherlands is not the strongest and that Ajax are expected to walk the league every year. However, this is not always the case. Prior to his arrival in Dec 2017, Ajax hadn’t won the league since 2014 under Frank de Boer.
To begin with, lets compare the highest points tallies in the Eredivisie since the 2000/2001 season, with the COVID-19 disrupted 19/20 season and current 21/22 season projected for 34 games.
Right at the top of the list is last seasons 20/21 title-winning campaign, joint with Phillip Cocu’s PSV side that included the likes of Memphis Depay, Georginio Wijnaldum and Luuk de Jong. Just below that with 87 pts is the 04/05 PSV side that also reached the Champions League semi-finals, coached by Guus Hiddink, that included Phillip Cocu the player, Mark van Bommel and Park Ji-sung. Next on the list is ten Hag’s 18/19 season with 86 points, joint with Steve McClaren’s FC Twente in 09/10.
So in his first 3.5 years at Ajax, both of ten Hag’s fully completed seasons lie in the top five points tallies of at least the last 21 years. The 17/18 season, where he took over in January 2018, finished with a respectable 79 pts; whilst the shortened 19/20 season finished with Ajax ahead on goal difference and a projected points haul of 76.16 pts. This season, at their current rate, Ajax are projected to finish with 83.11 pts, but could end up on 87 if they win their remaining seven fixtures.
If you compare these numbers to Frank de Boer’s four consecutive Eredivisie titles between 2011-2014 (73, 76, 76 and 71), ten Hag’s Ajax are operating on a different level of dominance.
Turning our attentions to goals scored in an Eredivisie season, ten Hag’s Ajax are more than impressive. Their 18/19 campaign is by far the highest scoring season in recent times with 119. Fourth on the list is 20/21 (102), with the current season projected to finish just behind that. He is on course to have three of the top five highest scoring campaigns since at least 2000/2001, with his 19/20 season also projected to finish in the top ten.
In comparison with de Boer, two of his title winning sides didn’t even make it on this list and neither would his 14/15 Ajax side. Before ten Hag, Ajax hadn’t scored more than 83 goals in a season since 11/12. Now he has transformed them into an exciting, free-scoring side.
The 09/10 Ajax team was powered by Luis Suárez, whilst the 12/13 PSV goals were shared between the likes of Dries Mertens, Jeremain Lens and Georginio Wijnaldum.
It’s all well and good scoring plenty of goals, but can you stop them going in at the other end? Next we’ll take a look at goal difference.
Teams like PSV in 12/13 and Ajax in 07/08, despite scoring 103 & 94 goals respectively, ended up finishing 2nd with goal differences of 60 & 49. Erik ten Hag’s Ajax however are on course to hold three of the top four highest goal difference totals, with 19/20 again projected to finish in the top ten. So far this season, Ajax have only conceded 13 goals in 27 league games (previously 7 in 24).
The PSV sides of 04/05 & 14/15 were strong, but still short of this Ajax side’s GF & GD. The 86 pt Twente team of 09/10 only scored 63 goals, with a goal difference of just 40.
The table below is a summary of the seventeen Eredivisie title winners prior to ten Hag’s arrival at Ajax.
The average Pts/90 for winning the title has definitely increased since 2014, with PSV’s 17/18 also at 2.44 PPM. However, if we take the average from 2000/2001, ten Hag’s overall Pts/90 at Ajax comfortably exceeds that. Only in 19/20 does it drop below; and even then it would have been enough to win 7 of the previous 17 seasons.
As we’ve already seen, this team is off the charts in terms of GF and GD, sitting easily above the title winning averages. These rates had increased between 14/15–16/17, however ten Hag has taken them to the next level. Only in his first 6 months did they fall below the average.
Summarising his achievements so far with Ajax in the Eredivisie, he’s won two league titles, finished the 19/20 season on top and currently sits in 1st place with 7 games remaining; achieved the joint highest points tally, the most goals scored and the highest goal difference since the turn of the century; won his second Rinus Michels award in 2019 for best coach; set the biggest margin of victory in an Eredivisie match with their 0–13 away win against VVV-Venlo in Oct 2020; and became the fastest manager in league history to reach 100 wins with Ajax, achieving the feat in just 128 matches.
In the history of Dutch top flight football, only Stefan Kovács, the treble winning Ajax manager of 1972, has a higher PPM (2.69) than Erik ten Hag’s Ajax (2.46).
Domestic Cup Record
Now let’s take a look at his performances in the KNVB Cup. When Erik ten Hag took over, Ajax hadn’t won the cup in 8 years. It had been 4 years since they’d gone past the round of 16. From 00/01–17/18, Ajax had won the cup only 4 times.
So whilst Frank de Boer dominated the Eredivisie for four years, he never managed to win the KNVB Cup - unlike Erik ten Hag. Ajax were already eliminated when he took over in 17/18, but since then, he has lifted the trophy twice in three years. In 19/20 they lost 2–0 in the semi-finals to his former side FC Utrecht, despite dominating for large portions of the game (see momentum bar below).
This season, they have once again comfortably reached the final; yet to concede in four matches, with an average of 5 goals per game. They will now face PSV, their rivals in the race for the Eredivisie, on the 17th April 2022.
Ten Hag also won the Dutch Super Cup in July 2019, beating PSV 2–0. Winning five domestic trophies in just 3.5 years is a fairly decent indicator of a serial winner and reminds me of how Pep usually hoovers up domestic cups. And with Ajax well positioned as we enter the final few weeks of the season, I fully expect him to add to his trophy cabinet.
European Record
Finally, we compare Ajax’s recent record in European competition. This is where ten Hag’s side have really come to prominence and made the club a relevant force again across the continent. The table below is a summary of Ajax’s recent record in European football.
The final column represents the number of points scored for the UEFA co-efficient. I’m not sure exactly how it’s calculated but generally, the more games you win, the further you advance, the more points you score.
We can see prior to ten Hag’s arrival, there wasn’t much to shout about. Often departing at the Qualifying Rounds or Group Stages of the Champions League and the early rounds of the Europa League / UEFA Cup. This is indicated by the fairly low UEFA co-efficient point totals. Obviously Ajax have been hugely successful in the past, winning the European Cup four times (including three in consecutive years), however since the mid-90s they’ve failed to hit the same heights.
Their highlight was probably in 16/17, reaching the Europa League Final under Peter Bosz, but eventually losing 2–0 to United. However, they were only in the Europa League as a result of losing 5–2 on aggregate to FC Rostov in the Champions League Play-off Round.
Since ten Hag took over, their UEFA co-efficient points have definitely increased and remained at a consistent level. In 18/19, they were seconds away from reaching a Champions League final, having played the likes of Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Juventus.
First, they navigated three rounds of qualifying, beating Sturm Graz, Standard Liège and Dynamo Kyiv. They then finished the group stage unbeaten, having played Bayern Munich, Benfica and AEK Athens. Despite losing the home leg of their last 16 tie with Real Madrid, they followed it up with a memorable 1–4 victory at the Santiago Bernabéu. This was the first time Ajax had progressed in a Champions League knockout stage tie since the 1996–97 campaign, whilst simultaneously resulting in Real’s biggest ever margin of defeat in a home knockout game in European competition.
Juventus were then despatched 3–2 on aggregate in the quarters, setting up a semi-final with Tottenham Hotspur. Impressive in the first leg, they probably should have been more than 1–0 up going into the home fixture. Nevertheless, they went into the final 45 minutes with a 3–0 aggregate lead, yet somehow proceeded to concede three 2nd half goals, with Lucas Moura completing his hat-trick in the dying seconds to knock them out.
In 19/20 they successfully navigated the play-off rounds and despite beating Lille twice, Valencia and drawing away at Chelsea, they exited the Group Stage with 10 points. Getting knocked out of the 20/21 Champions League Group Stage was disappointing, although they did reach the Quarter-finals of the Europa League. These exits should probably not come as a surprise, considering the number of important first team players that left following their 18/19 campaign.
This season, they qualified from the Group Stage with a perfect record of 6 wins from 6 — the first time any team from the Netherlands has achieved this and only one of ten other sides in the competitions history. In the process, they scored 20 goals (3.33 p90) — only bettered by Bayern Munich (22 goals). Another incredible statistic in favour of Erik ten Hag is that he’s only lost 1 in 21 Champions League away fixtures — that being a 1–0 defeat at Anfield in December 2020.
However, having drawn the away leg 2–2 against Benfica, they ultimately lost the home tie 0–1 and were knocked out in the round of 16. Once again though, as with the FC Utrecht semi-final, Ajax dominated the game (see images below). They had 69% possession, 16 shots to 4 and an xG of 1.29 to 0.40 — with all of Benfica’s threat coming from set pieces.
Ajax were the team in control, but ultimately failed to break down the resilient Benfica defence — a problem sure to face ten Hag for many years to come.
Ten Hag’s overall record at Ajax so far (Jan18-Mar22) from 207 matches is 2.35 PPM, 2.77 GF/90 and 0.85 GA/90, with a win rate of 73.91%. His overall win percentage since 2012 is 64.10%. To put this into perspective, Sir Alex’s was 58.1% over his whole career, Mauricio Pochettino 48.22%, Jürgen Klopp 53.57%, José Mourinho 63.26% and Pep Guardiola 72.97%. Obviously you have to consider the size of some of the teams they’ve managed, as well as the longevity, but ten Hag’s record is still strong despite managing the likes of Go Ahead Eagles, Bayern II and FC Utrecht for over half those games.
Transfers & Squad Rebuild
What makes Erik ten Hag’s continued success even more impressive is the fact his 18/19 squad has since been picked apart and a new team of winners rebuilt — at a fraction of the price compared to other European super clubs.
In the summer of 2019, having won the domestic double and reached the semi-finals of the Champions League, he lost key figures in Matthijs de Ligt, Frenkie de Jong, Lasse Schöne and Kasper Dolberg. All four started the 2nd leg against Spurs but were then sold just a few months later.
Then in the following summer — Hakim Ziyech, Donny van de Beek and Joël Veltman also departed, with David Neres eventually joining them in January 2022. Only Daley Blind, Dušan Tadić, Noussair Mazraoui, Nicolás Tagliafico and André Onana remain in this current Ajax side, with the latter three all seemingly on the way out this summer.
In four years, ten Hag has spent approx. £182.58m, but recouped £352.13m (all figures taken from transfermarkt.co.uk); resulting in a negative net spend (profit) of approx. -£169.55m. This helps highlight the quality of player ten Hag developed then ultimately lost. The same will happen to the likes of Jurrien Timber and Ryan Gravenberch.
He was able to take Premier League rejects in Blind, Tadić and Haller and, along with academy graduates and smart scouting, create another exciting, dominating side. The likes of Edson Álvarez, Lisandro Martínez and Antony were signed for a combined fee of ~£34m.
For comparison, in the same period of time, Manchester United have spent £487.17m on incoming players (around £305m more than Ajax), with a net spend of around £340m (~£510m difference in net spend between the two clubs). Who knows the levels ten Hag could reach when given that kind of budget …
Statistical comparison with Europe’s elite — Domestic League 21/22
Here we take a quick look at the stats (FBref & StatsBomb) behind eight of Europe’s top clubs in their respective domestic leagues — Bayern, Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Real Madrid, Inter, PSG and Ajax — plus Arsenal and Man United. These were chosen based on strong league performance and reaching the Champions League knockout rounds (analysis conducted during the March 2022 international break).
Starting off with the most basic — Pts/90 vs GD/90. As perhaps expected, ten Hag’s Ajax come out on top and United at the bottom. PSG with Pochettino have a decent points rate, but their GD is the lowest out of that elite group.
GF/90 vs GA/90: Ajax & United again set the upper & lower threshold. Arsenal are not much better and whilst Bayern score the most, they’ve also conceded quite a few. Ajax have scored more, and conceded fewer, than Liverpool & City.
Possession: Unsurprisingly, City come out on top — but Ajax are a very close 2nd. Since ten Hag worked closely with Pep at Bayern, this could be expected. However, Arteta at Arsenal, despite working under Pep at City, does not try and dominate possession. Again, United rank low.
Shots/90: Ajax again rank highest, even above the likes of Bayern & Liverpool, with Chelsea the most shot-shy. Poch’s PSG are also surprisingly low, just ahead of United. Considering they play in a supposedly inferior league where they have by far the biggest budget, 14.31 Sh/90 is pretty poor.
Opponent Shots/90 vs Clean Sheet % and Saves/90: As expected, United again are the worst performers in this area. People taking De Gea making the most saves as a positive is baffling. Ajax & Man City limit the opposition the most. And again, PSG fail to impress.
Unfortunately, FBref do not cover more detailed stats such as xG, SCA or Touches for the Eredivisie, so we are limited here to just the surface-level numbers.
I then ranked each of these stats (1–10; 10 being the best) and calculated an average score for each team, giving a rough indicator of how dominant that side is in their domestic league compared to the rest of the group. Erik ten Hag’s Ajax rank the highest, with maximum points for nearly every statistic, whilst as expected, United are rock bottom.
You probably would’ve predicted Ajax to heavily dominate most their league games, and therefore don’t consider this to be that impressive. However, the same could be said of Bayern, who rank comfortably below them. Also PSG, who only score higher than Arsenal & United, are expected to walk Ligue 1 but instead have struggled.
Furthermore, as highlighted earlier in the article, ten Hag’s Ajax are operating on a different level compared to any other Eredivisie side in recent years. The graphs below compare Points p90 vs Goal Difference p90 and Shots on Target Against p90 vs Shots on Target p90 for Ajax sides since 10/11. Once again they emphasise the level of dominance this Ajax side enjoys.
His three full seasons are in a league of their own in terms of Pts & GD. The 18/19 season is missing the SoTA & SoT values, but we can still see all of ten Hag’s other seasons have had the most shots on target whilst, along with 15/16 & 16/17, have conceded the fewest shots on target against.
Statistical comparison with Europe’s elite — Champions League 21/22
In this section, I’ve analysed the same eight teams - those that reached the Champions League round of 16 and, at the time, were excelling in their domestic leagues — plus Manchester United. All stats are provided by FBref & StatsBomb, with each side completing eight matches in the competition.
Starting off with GF vs GA and xG vs xGA. In terms of scoring goals, Bayern are out in front, with Man City and ten Hag’s Ajax behind them. United by far had the lowest xG. At the other end, Pochettino’s PSG have conceded, and were expected to concede, the most goals, whilst Ajax were probably not as secure as they’d want to be. City have been unlucky with the number of goals conceded, while on the other hand, Madrid have maybe been a bit fortunate.
GD vs xGD: this suggests Inter have been unlucky, whereas R. Madrid possibly a bit fortunate. But more glaringly, Ajax are up there with the elite sides, whilst PSG are much closer to United — which is a poor reflection on Poch. Bayern are streets ahead of the rest for GD.
In terms of possession, you’d probably expect City to be higher, but you can see Ajax are up there with the big hitters. Poch’s PSG however have only had slightly higher average possession than United. It’s not the be-all and end-all, but it is a sign of a comfortable, dominant side on the ball.
Shots vs SCA: PSG are again down there with United. For a squad full of superstars, it’s embarrassing really. As seen in the previous section, Chelsea do not create lots of shooting opportunities compared to some of the other top sides. Ajax are again in the mix at the top, having more shots and creating more shooting opportunities than Chelsea or Liverpool.
Opponent Shots vs Clean Sheet %, as well as total number of Saves. Another indication of Madrid being a bit fortunate - despite their CS% being high, they’ve conceded a fairly high number of shots and Courtois has made the most saves in this group.
United are obviously poor again, but PSG are just as bad, if not worse. Ten Hag’s Ajax are fairly average, which is still decent (probably not happy with the CS%), whilst Chelsea make up for their lack of creativity/shots with a very strong defence.
Touches in Attacking 1/3 vs Touches in Attacking Penalty Area. These stats show Ajax spent a lot of time close to the opposition’s goal, with the most touches in the attacking penalty area. PSG on the other hand had the fewest touches in the final 1/3 and are situated close to United on this graph.
Again, looking at the same stats but for the opposition, Poch’s PSG have allowed their opponents by far the most touches in the attacking 1/3 and penalty area. Whereas Ajax find themselves in that elite group with City, Liverpool, Bayern and Chelsea — hugely limiting their opponents.
Finally, Tackles in Attacking 1/3 vs Pressures in Attacking 1/3. Quite different to the domestic league stats, PSG in the Champions League actually match up much closer to United in terms of pressing & tackling high up the pitch. Liverpool are consistently high for both, whilst Ajax are also decent.
As explained in the domestic league 21/22 section, these stats were then ranked (1–9) and each side was given an overall, rough average score as an indicator of how dominant their performances have been in the Champions League. Bayern came out on top and unsurprisingly, United at the bottom.
However, what’s interesting is Ajax’s performance levels have probably been on par with Liverpool’s and really, they should have made it through to the Quarter-Finals. Considering how much smaller their transfer budget and wage bill is compared to these other European powerhouses, it’s a miracle they are performing at a similar level.
PSG meanwhile have been poor, with performances a long way from the dominant displays of those top five teams. Obviously the level of opponent has a massive impact on these stats, with PSG facing RB Leipzig, City and R. Madrid. But you would still expect better.
So in conclusion, Ajax have been performing at a very high level and are unfortunate to have been knocked out, whereas PSG’s performance levels are almost on par with United — which is quite shocking considering the players at Pochettino’s disposal.
Tactics & Style of Play
As mentioned previously, Erik ten Hag’s footballing philosophy is strongly influenced by Pep Guardiola. He is a very attack-minded, possession-based manager who likes to press from the front whenever possible, forcing the opposition into mistakes close to their own goal. His style is sometimes referred to as ‘vertical tiki-taka’ (i.e. possession with a purpose), where they look to build out from the back with lots of passing options for the man on the ball. Loss of possession triggers an aggressive, co-ordinated counter-press, which if unsuccessful, can lead to being exposed on the counter-attack. Otherwise, they can drop back into a mid-block and try to push back from there.
In terms of formation, ten Hag hasn’t really been tied down to one particular shape. Instead, he is able to adapt his tactics to fit the individuals within the team. At Utrecht, he mostly used a 4–4–2 diamond or 4–3–3, although occasionally a 5–3–2/3–5–2. Since he’s been at Ajax, he’s used both the 4–2–3–1 (i.e. 18/19) and the 4–3–3 (i.e. 21/22). However, his teams rarely stick to these rigid structures when in possession — instead we see lots of positional fluidity as they look to move forward and create overloads, with the full-backs always looking to push high in order to support attacks and force the opposition back. Ten Hag was quoted by DutchSoccerSite:
“The qualities of the players determine the system, not the other way around. And it’s not even about systems. It’s about what you do in possession, when you lose possession and in those turn around moments. And you need to be able to change that up.”
He goes on to talk about finding the best position/role for Frenkie de Jong in midfield, in order to get the most from his skill-set — something we’ve struggled to do with Paul Pogba for six years. He also explains how having experienced players, leaders on the pitch like Blind, de Ligt, Schöne and Tadić was very important to their success — something else United seem to be lacking.
In the interview below, ten Hag emphasises teamwork, off-the-ball runs (mastered by Liverpool) and positioning. Following Dolberg’s goal against PSV (9:45), he explains how they practice “creating several 10s and getting between the lines”. He describes off-the-ball runs as the key to success — whereas at United, players often resemble statues in possession.
Although inspired by other coaches, ten Hag insists he is not a copy of somebody else (i.e. Pep). He also rejects the idea of being an extremely attacking coach — rather he adapts to certain opponents and that it must fit the DNA of the club.
In the sections below, we will focus on his 2018–19 Domestic double winners and Champions League semi-finalists, followed by his current 2021–22 team.
2018–19
The figure above shows the 2018–19 Ajax side using players with the most 90’s in all competitions, set up in the 4–2–3–1 formation that was so successful throughout that campaign. However, in reality, these positions were much more flexible. Starting with André Onana — ten Hag likes a goalkeeper who is comfortable with his feet, composed under a high press and capable of sweeping up behind the high line. Nicolás Tagliafico would support attacks down that left flank and provide the width, whilst Noussair Mazraoui would also push up - either as an inverted full-back to provide a passing option inside, or on the overlap around Hakim Ziyech.
Frenkie de Jong would drop deep, either between the two centre-backs or from the LCB position and, along with Daley Blind, help dictate the tempo and progress the ball from defence. Lasse Schöne would remain central, David Neres was left to dribble and create, whilst Ziyech would cut inside onto his left foot and look to cross, switch play or take a shot. Despite sometimes using a more traditional no.9 in Huntelaar or Dolberg, ten Hag mainly utilised Tadić as a kind of false nine (particularly in Europe), dropping slightly deeper, looking to link play and create chances. This allowed Donny to push forward and make runs beyond the back line, finding space in and around the opposition penalty area with his clever touches and movement. If Dolberg or Huntelaar started as the nine, Tadić would move out to the the LW (like we’ve seen this season with Sébastien Haller).
So in reality, this Ajax side looked a bit more like this when in possession:
Defensively, whilst they liked to press high as a cohesive unit, the double pivot of Schöne and de Jong provided a bit of stability & protection in front of the centre-backs — particularly in the Champions League.
The pie chart above shows the Touches per 90 of those 10 outfield players during the 2018–19 Champions League campaign, including as a % of their combined total. It helps to visualise which players were heavily involved in the teams build-up & overall play. De Jong, Blind, Schöne and Ziyech contributed to almost 50% of the total touches for this group, whilst Donny van de Beek was a lot less involved (just 40.3 touches per 90).
The following graph compares Progressive Carries per 90 vs. Progressive Passes per 90. Ziyech and de Jong were very important in terms of progression for this Ajax side, along with Tadić, Neres (carries) and Blind (passes). De Jong was the heartbeat, the deep-lying playmaker at the base of midfield. As expected due to his high positioning, Donny’s progression numbers are also low.
The figure below(Touches in Attacking 3rd per 90 vs. Shot-Creating Actions per 90) highlights the players with most responsibility in attack, those who were creating chances and looking to make things happen in the final 3rd. Ziyech is again heavily involved, as is Tadić and to a slightly lesser extent Neres. As you would expect, de Ligt is at the bottom, yet Donny is close to the pivot players and full-backs. Donny’s role in this Ajax side was very much like a second-striker (why we signed him and expected him to play in a deeper pivot role I’ll never know).
Now let’s take a look at a few moments in a game vs PSV in March 2019, which highlight some of the things mentioned above. The image below is taken from the Coaches’ Voice article, with Ajax set up in an attacking shape - de Jong & Schöne as the double pivot, with Tagliafico overlapping the narrow sitting Neres.
The next image shows the general set-up during build-up play. Blind & de Ligt have split, with de Jong dropping deep to dictate the play and progress the ball. Schöne is providing an option in the centre as the pivot, with Mazraoui playing the inverted full-back role and Tagliafico out on the left with Neres (both out of picture). Ziyech is holding the width on the RW, with Donny & Tadic staying high and central.
As mentioned previously, off-the-ball runs and constant movement are essential to ten Hag’s philosophy. Here is just one example: Tagliafico has the ball, Neres has come short with Tadić looking for that blind-side run into the channel, whilst Donny is looking to spin in behind ready for the cut-back. Ziyech meanwhile is holding the width and ‘stressing out the opponent’ — something ten Hag refers to in the interview above (Video 5).
Once they arrived in more advanced positions, with Ziyech often looking to deliver a cross, they always seemed to have at least 3 players in the box looking for the pull-back or waiting at the back post.
Out of possession, they were prepared to press high in a co-ordinated manner, with every player knowing exactly what was expected of him — unlike some games this season for United under Solskjær.
‘Apart from 2018–19, when they were second, Ajax have topped the challenge intensity stats in each of Ten Hag’s campaigns’ — Coaches’ Voice.
2021–22
This season, ten Hag has again used a very settled starting XI, usually in a 4–3–3/4–2–3–1 formation, which on paper looks like this:
However, as with the 2018–19 team, it’s a very fluid system that actually looks quite similar in possession and follows the same principles of play.
The centre-back’s and goalkeeper in this Ajax side have to be comfortable on the ball. Martínez and Timber aren’t the biggest, however they make up for it with their intelligence, positional play and ability in possession. The same can be said of Blind in 2018–19 and lets not forget, under Louis van Gaal, Blind & Smalling forged a very stable partnership in the Premier League.
In the example below, Álvarez sits just in front of the defence, retaining possession and recycling the ball as the midfield anchor. Sometimes he can drop deeper to form a back three, with Blind pushing higher on the left and Gravenberch coming more central as the pivot player. However, Gravenberch often likes to drift over to that left-hand side, where himself, Blind and Tadić overload the opposition, rotating positions and making blind-side, third-man runs in behind the full-back. On the opposite flank, you have the left-footed Antony holding the width and playing a similar role to Ziyech, with Mazraoui again occupying a more central position before offering an underlapping/overlapping run. Steven Berghuis is given the freedom to float and find space, whereas Sébastien Haller remains central, acting as a backboard for the team. He allows Ajax to go more direct if under a high press, whilst also providing a physical target in the box if they’re struggling to break down an opponent. Out of possession, as in 2018–19, they can look to press high from a 4–2–3–1 structure.
The figure below summarises the shape and movement between the different positions when Ajax have the ball.
Sometimes however, Blind can drop into a back three alongside Timber & Martínez, which allows the midfielders to push high and Mazraoui to come inside and make forward runs — as seen in the image below.
The Breaking the Lines article on ten Hag’s tactics is also a good read, briefly summarising Ajax’s shape in possession, how they use the half-spaces to help break down deep blocks — something Pep is used to doing at City and what we’ve struggled to do for almost a decade now.
The chart below shows Touches per 90 for these 10 outfield players in this seasons Champions League, and again helps to visualise the involvement of each in Ajax’s overall game. Since 2018–19, four of the five biggest contributors (de Jong, Schöne, Ziyech and de Ligt) had since left the club. Edson Álvarez has taken de Jong’s position, however his role in possession is very different. Rather it is Lisandro Martínez who has taken on the responsibility of conductor — alongside Daley Blind and Jurrien Timber. Previously Donny, now Sébastien Haller has the least number of touches per 90 with just 33.1.
I have seen some people compare Ryan Gravenberch to Frenkie de Jong, receiving the ball from the centre-backs and acting as that deep-lying playmaker. However, you can see he has a much lower % of touches compared to de Jong and his role in this team is much closer to an attacking no.8 that likes to drift out to the left.
In terms of progression, there aren’t any stand-outs for both stats, like with Ziyech and de Jong. Rather, Blind has particularly high progressive passes and Antony progressive carries. What also needs highlighting are the progression numbers for centre-backs Martínez & Timber, along with Noussair Mazraoui. Álvarez on the other hand is not progressive for either, preferring to play wall passes and retaining possession — safety first.
The following graph shows Touches in Attacking 3rd per 90 vs. Shot-Creating Actions per 90. As in 2018–19, with Tadić, Ziyech and Neres, there are 3 players that dominate in attacking areas — Tadić, Antony and Berghuis.
In order to assess whether the stats and reports matched with the eye test, I analysed a couple of Ajax’s games in the Champions League — the 2nd leg Round of 16 tie with Benfica and the Group Stage fixture away at Borussia Dortmund.
Starting with their team shape, here are a few screen-shots from those two matches. The first is a very clear example, with Álvarez offering himself as the no.6, Gravenberch drifts across to the left. Mazraoui is charging forward into that inside channel, leaving Antony with lots of space on the RW — as they did with Ziyech in 2018-19. Martínez has the ability on the ball to switch play and pick out Antony on the far touchline. Meanwhile, Berghuis is looking for space in central areas, with Haller acting as the focal point.
The same set-up can be seen against Dortmund, however this time Blind is higher up the pitch and more central. You can see him pointing and telling Martínez to play the ball out left. The image below is 2 seconds later, where Gravenberch receives the ball out wide and has forward runs inside him from both Tadić and Blind.
The fact that Álvarez isn’t the most progressive in midfield is balanced by the technical quality of both Timber & Martínez. In the images below, Martínez uses his passing ability & vision to find more advanced midfielders between the lines.
The example below shows inverted right-back Mazraoui providing a passing option for Timber in a central position. With no Dortmund player picking him up, he has time to turn and run with the ball towards the Dortmund goal. This use of inverted full-backs is very similar to what Pep does at City.
As mentioned above, Álvarez occasionally drops to form a back three in possession, with Gravenberch (or Davy Klaassen) then moving more central. This is a bit like de Jong dropping deep and Schöne operating as the pivot in midfield. Below are a couple examples of this.
The main thing to notice with this Ajax side are the third-man runs and positional fluidity in wide areas. On the right, Mazraoui and Antony have developed a brilliant understanding. Often starting narrow, with Antony holding the width, Mazraoui already knows to make that run in behind the full-back before the Brazilian has even received the ball. That gives Antony the option to play the pass, or open up the pitch and produce a cross or shot.
In this phase of play, Antony moves inside and so Mazraoui takes his position out wide to receive the pass from Timber. At the same time, Haller, Berghuis and Tadić are ready to flood the box for the cross.
The left is just as impressive, if not more so, with Blind, Gravenberch and Tadić constantly rotating, searching for overloads. In the image below, Blind has forward runs from both and possibly even Haller as well.
The same trio again, Tadić is positioned wide to drag the full-back out, with Blind finding a forward pass into Gravenberch. I’ve included a few further examples below, all from just the 1st half against Benfica.
As you can see from the last image and the following examples, Ajax always try to flood the box when in these types of areas, increasing their chances of a goal-scoring opportunity.
In addition to this, ten Hag also talks about holding the width in order to stress the opponent. For the final goal against Dortmund, Antony stays wide on the right. When the ball gets switched, he has lots of time & space to get past his man and square for a Klaassen tap-in.
Out of possession, as already mentioned, Ajax like to press high up the pitch to try and force the opposition into a mistake - or to go long.
If they are unsuccessful at winning the ball high, they can instead fall back into a mid/low-block and then try and push the opposition back from there, like in the image below.
This is again highlighted in the Coaches’ Voice article:
The common theme running throughout Ten Hag’s defensive approach is the individual jumping and pressing out of line. Whether that’s a centre-back pushing out to deal with a dropping attacker, or a number eight pushing forward to press a dropping pivot, Ten Hag wants his players to work forward on to the ball — even if it means assertively leaving the line of defence. This puts constant pressure on the ball and, from a compact mid-block, forces the opposition back and away from goal.
Erik ten Hag’s United
Now we have a decent understanding of how ten Hag likes his team to play, lets see how he could put this into practice with the current United squad.
Starting with the goalkeeper, they have to be comfortable on the ball, even when under pressure from opposition forwards. Building out from the back is non-negotiable under ten Hag’s philosophy. The graph below shows how much more involved Remko Pasveer and André Onana are, in terms of passes attempted, compared to David De Gea or Dean Henderson at United.
Even in 14/15 and 15/16 under Louis van Gaal, David De Gea only averaged 28.1 and 25.2 attempted passes per 90, with a pass accuracy of 64.22% and 56.91% respectively. Compare that to Pasveer in the Eredivisie (81.4%) and Champions League (84%), as well as Onana in 20/21 (Eredivisie — 79.88%; Champions League — 76.16%), his numbers are much too low. This season in the Premier League, De Gea again has a pass accuracy of just 68.34%.
In my opinion, De Gea is just not good enough to be United’s no.1 moving forward. Below is a thread I wrote comparing him to other goalkeepers across Europe, analysing their stats over the past few years. De Gea ranks poorly in nearly every one — distribution wise he isn’t great, he doesn’t come for crosses and he’s also very reluctant to leave his box and sweep behind the back four. This could be another problem when playing a high line with defenders that lack pace such as Maguire & Lindelöf.
As Pep did with Joe Hart when he arrived at City, ten Hag would have to be very firm and drop De Gea — unless he can drastically improve his distribution. He just doesn’t suit his style of play or have the attributes required for a modern day keeper. Video 7 below (11:00) shows a few good examples of Onana’s ability on the ball, always creating angles for defenders to provide another passing option during build-up (à la Ederson). Either Henderson needs to be given another opportunity as the no.1, or ten Hag needs to bring in his own goalkeeper — the likes of David Raya, Robert Sánchez, Illan Meslier, Pau López or Gerónimo Rulli could be potential options.
Before we look at the rest of the squad, here are a few graphs comparing the stats for United this season in the Premier League — Touches, Progressive Passes, Progressive Carries, Touches in Attacking 3rd and Shot-Creating Actions.
*the percentages for Touches per 90 cannot be directly compared to those for Ajax as there are a higher number of players included.
Moving onto the centre-backs, they also have to be technically strong in possession. As shown by the stats in the previous section, Martínez and Timber see a lot of the ball and are important in terms of finding those progressive passes between the lines. In 2018–19, they had more of a traditional CB in de Ligt, but he was paired with a deep-playmaker in Blind. Neither of those are particularly fast and I don’t think Martínez is either. Rangnick has also spoken about in order to play a high line, the defenders don’t need to be fast, it’s all about rest defence and marking the opposition closely. The only issue with Maguire is how slow he is, a severe lack of agility in order to defend in large spaces during 1v1 situations. I think on the ball he is good enough — driving forward and finding progressive passes. Lindelöf is also decent at this, Varane slightly less so. Ten Hag would probably look at signing a technically strong, left-footed centre-back if he were to take over.
At full-back, the seemingly obvious casualty will be Aaron Wan-Bissaka. I don’t think he has the positional awareness or technical ability to either progress the ball from deep or play a more inverted role and combine with quick passing & rotations. His strengths lie in his unorthodox dribbling and athleticism — traits ten Hag doesn’t tend to rely too heavily on.
However, I think the rest could be okay. The Touches per 90 pie chart above shows that, along with Matić and Pogba, the other three full-backs are heavily involved in our build-up. Luke Shaw is a very strong attacking outlet for this team and a player I’m sure ten Hag could get the best out of. His link-up with Rashford & Martial down that left-hand side under Ole was brilliant at times. Telles is not as progressive as Shaw and doesn’t have the same creativity (with most of his SCA a result of set-pieces), however he could probably do a similar job as Tagliafico, or possibly drop into a back three during build-up to use his long passing.
Diogo Dalot I think would also be appreciated by ten Hag. As you can see, his progressive actions are impressive and he’s another that could slip into a RCB position and pick out forward passes. Alternatively, he has the technical ability to maybe push forward into that inverted full-back role like Mazraoui does, or João Cancelo at City.
Midfield is where the problems lie for this United side. Nemanja Matić could be perfect for ten Hag — but he’s on the decline and out of contract in 2023. Matić could play the de Jong role from that 2018–19 side, dropping between or to the left of the centre-backs and progressing play from deep. Scott McTominay however does not have the same skill-set. Just from looking at the graphs above, he has less touches than all three centre-backs and only more than the forward players — he hides in possession. He could possibly be used by ten Hag in a similar way to Álvarez, sitting just in front or as part of a back three, keeping it simple and retaining possession. Then when we inevitably lose the ball, he can use his physicality and athleticism to mop up any danger. But even to do that, he still needs to show for the ball more and reduce the number of dribbles he attempts — at the moment he loses the ball way too easily. Maybe he could play a pivot/no.8 role like Schöne or Klaassen, but again I don’t think he’s technically strong enough or has the intelligence to do what ten Hag would demand.
Fred, as we’ve seen this season, is not a no.6 and should be utilised higher up the pitch where he can try riskier passes and also press aggressively. Although he can be sloppy in possession, I think in the Schöne role or as a no.8 like Gravenberch, he could be useful to ten Hag. He could combine down that left side with Shaw and the LW, occasionally drop into the pivot, and help lead the counter-press.
One player you would expect to be pleased about ten Hag potentially taking the United hot seat is Donny van de Beek. Left on the bench by Ole, then sent out on loan to Everton in January, he’s yet to get his United career going. However, he’s a player ten Hag will trust and knows will follow his instructions to the letter. The issue is finding the best role for him. With Bruno occupying the no.10 position and recently signing a new contract, it’s difficult to know where Donny fits in. As we’ve seen, he was most effective in 2018–19 when being used almost like a second striker. However, ten Hag has also used Donny in a deeper role, like in the game below against Chelsea in the 19/20 Champions League group stage. During that season, they often had Ziyech, Promes, Tadić and either Neres/Huntelaar in those front four positions, with defensive midfielder (now centre-back) Martínez often partnering Donny in midfield. He still managed 21 goal contributions that season (0.57 G/A per game), a slight improvement from the previous season’s 30 in 57 (0.53 per game).
The idea that ten Hag won’t like Bruno is ridiculous to me. He has the individual brilliance that Ajax have, at times, relied upon with the likes of Ziyech, Antony and Tadić. Used as one of the more advanced midfielders like Berghuis this season, or as one of the central two like Tadić & Donny in 2018–19, I’m sure he’d thrive under the Dutchman. He will need to be slightly more patient in possession, with ten Hag preferring to wait for the right moment, rather than the fastest one. Yet the argument that he loses the ball too often is a weak one. Nearly all creative players give the ball away the most — as they’re the ones taking risks to make things happen. The graphs below show Pass Completion % for Ajax in the Champions League in 2018–19 & 2021–22 and Manchester United in the Premier League 2021–22. As you can see, Dušan Tadić and Bruno Fernandes have very similar numbers, both are leaders on the pitch and both are arguably their team’s most important player. I’m convinced that Bruno could become ten Hag’s Tadić at United.
Paul Pogba won’t be here next season, but maybe ten Hag could promote the likes of Garner, Levitt, Galbraith or Hannibal into his squad. But the key position we’ve been missing for years now is that holding no.6 — hopefully we can recruit one this summer. Whether that be Declan Rice, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Boubacar Kamara, Florian Grillitsch, João Palhinha, Ibrahim Sangaré or even Edson Álvarez.
Moving into the wide areas, with Mata & Lingard out of contract and Greenwood no longer in the picture, United’s options are limited to Sancho, Rashford and Elanga from the current squad. Sancho I think fits perfectly into a ten Hag system — he can sit narrow on the right-hand side, like Tadić & Neres did from the left, or he can hold the width on the left and open up onto his right foot like Ziyech & Antony but on the opposite flank. He has the close control and intelligence to combine in small triangles and find space in tight areas.
Marcus Rashford I’m less confident about. At his best, he’s a very direct, skilful player who likes to cut inside onto his right foot and make runs in-behind. In terms of the profiles ten Hag has used at Ajax, he’s probably most similar to Quincy Promes during the 2019–20 season, although he maybe doesn’t possess the same close control and vision. His decision making definitely needs improving, he can’t continue to run down blind alleys in the box. Rashford & Shaw do have a good relationship down the left though, so that could be his best role. On the RW he often looks uncomfortable and seems limited to crossing from deeper positions. And it goes without saying, he’ll need to regain some confidence in order to rediscover his best form.
I’m also unsure about Anthony Elanga — he definitely has the off-the-ball movement ten Hag will love, as well as the work-rate. But he doesn’t have the creativity or play-making abilities of a Tadić, Ziyech or Antony. Maybe he could provide a similar role to that of Neres, playing left or right, running at his opponent and rotating from the bench. And he’s still young enough to be moulded and developed further. Facundo Pellistri could fulfil a similar role if given an opportunity, whilst Amad Diallo definitely has the profile to play as that technically gifted left-footed RW, like Ziyech & Antony or Mahrez at City. However, whether these youngsters are ready right now is a different question — if ten Hag was to join United this summer, maybe he would try and bring Antony with him.
Finally, we take a look at the ST position. Edinson Cavani is again out injured and out of contract in the summer. Anthony Martial could suit ten Hag’s technical football, although he could lack intensity in both off-the-ball movement and in terms of pressing without it. He has also seemingly made it clear he wants a fresh start away from Old Trafford so I would be looking to cash-in on the Frenchman.
That leaves 37 year old Cristiano Ronaldo as our only striker option — with even his future looking doubtful as Champions League football is starting to slip away following the home draw with Leicester. If he were to stay, I think ten Hag could get more out of him than what we’ve seen this season. At Ajax he’s used both a false-nine system, with Tadić & Donny interchanging positions, and a more traditional target man in Haller. Ronaldo could be asked to remain central, away from the build-up play, and wait for crosses and cut-backs into the box. If he can enjoy the same type of service Haller receives at Ajax, he could still score plenty of goals — there’s a reason Pep wanted him at City. Alternatively, he could be paired with Bruno or Donny as that second striker in a 4–2–3–1, with either of them pushing up high in support. Whichever system is chosen, I don’t think you’d see Ronaldo looking quite as isolated — as shown above, ten Hag is a very attack-minded coach who looks to dominate in the opposition half and flood the box.
However, whether Ronaldo stays or not, United still need to sign a striker. We’ve been heavily linked to Harry Kane, although I’m not sure how that works if Ronaldo stays or United miss out on Champions League football — plus he’ll cost a ridiculous amount of money. Tammy Abraham fits a similar profile to Haller, but Roma will also demand a sizeable fee, as would Napoli for Victor Osimhen (having already paid £67.5m to sign the Nigerian two years ago). Dominic Calvert-Lewin could be an option, especially if Everton go down, as could Leverkusens’s Patrik Schick or maybe even Haller himself. Darwin Núñez is another player linked, although he probably fits a slightly different profile, often operating from the left channel rather than as a focal point. Jonathan David or Christopher Nkunku could also be options if ten Hag isn’t looking for a target man.
In the line-up below, I’ve structured the team based on that 2018–19 Ajax side. Henderson in goal, as although I’m not convinced on his distribution, it can’t be much worse than De Gea and his overall game makes up for it — especially sweeping behind a high line. At centre-back, I believe Maguire and Lindelöf are our best ball-playing defenders, although I’m sure Varane could slot in for either if preferred. However, without a left-footed CB, we are slightly unbalanced compared to both Ajax sides. Therefore, Matić drops back like de Jong but as the LCB, due to his left-foot and play-making abilities, whilst Fred remains central like Schöne and acts as the pivot. Sancho & Dalot operate as Neres and Tagliafico but on the right, with Rashford & Shaw aiming to replicate Ziyech and Mazraoui on the left. Rashford holds the width before cutting inside, whilst Shaw bombs forward and provides underlapping or overlapping runs. Bruno (or Donny) are able to push up and support Ronaldo as the CF.
Alternatively, he could go with something like this, based around the current 2021–22 Ajax side. McTominay performs the Álvarez no.6 role — although not ideal, he could do a job. The issue here is the lack of a left foot and therefore reduced progression at LCB. Shaw could drop a little deeper and play the Blind role, but then you’re restricting his attacking talents. Bruno or Fred, whoever is the left-sided no.8, would need to come across and help with progression like Gravenberch does (Pogba would’ve been ideal). On the opposite flank, it could work like the Blind-Gravenberch-Tadić trio. Dalot can start from deeper like Blind, picking out forward passes and sometimes drifting inside, with Donny or Fred looking to combine with either Sancho or Elanga (although neither midfielder naturally drifts out towards that right-hand side). Bruno fulfils the Berghuis role, with Ronaldo remaining central and acting as the target for crosses.
Before we take a look the possible downsides to Erik ten Hag, the video below from Atlantis Football does a fantastic job of assessing his style of play, the origins of his philosophy, and how he might apply his ideas at Manchester United.
Doubts/Weaknesses
There are obviously some doubts over Erik ten Hag — as there will be with any managerial appointment. Other than his two year stint with Bayern’s reserve team, in the fourth tier of German football, he hasn’t managed outside the Netherlands. He’s not experienced the intense pressure of managing a super-club like Manchester United; dealing with huge egos in the dressing room; players on astronomical wages; or working within a dysfunctional football structure with incompetent people making the decisions.
As he states in Video 5 above, success doesn’t come instantly. In the beginning at Ajax, he described it as difficult as he didn’t know the club yet, the balance of power, or the players. It took time for them to accept his ideas and he admitted the summer pre-season was crucial in order to get the team functioning how he wanted. If that was difficult, managing United’s problems will be x10 harder — just ask Ralf Rangnick.
On top of that, how many of these players actually suit the style of football ten Hag will want to play? The likes of d De Gea, Varane, Wan-Bissaka, McTominay and Rashford could all struggle to adapt to his tactics. Even if he decides to shift these players out, he’s never had the ‘luxury’ of a massive transfer budget — we don’t know how he will react with money to spend, whether he can work within the current structure and continue to target the correct players to fit his system.
The Eredivisie is also levels below the Premier League in terms of quality & intensity — he won’t be used to this level of competition week-in, week-out. Will he be able to adapt his tactics to overcome the physicality & varied styles the Premier League offers? A lack of rotation in his starting XI is a criticism I’ve seen levelled at ten Hag — this would be an issue at United, where you’re expected to perform at your highest level twice a week, from the first to the last game of the season. Both this year and in 2018–19, he relied heavily on the same eleven players almost every game — with Ole also criticised for consistently picking his ‘favourites’.
Another potential weakness could be his sides vulnerability in transition. Despite them dominating most games, we’ve seen in recent weeks how they can be left exposed on the counter-attack and this will only increase in frequency when coaching in the Premier League. Ten Hag will need to adapt quickly in order to limit these risks.
And finally, although his English seems fairly strong, it could still become a potential problem when getting instructions across to the players or dealing with the scrutiny of the British media. He sometimes comes across as quite an abrupt, factual personality in interviews — rather than the charismatic figure of a Jürgen Klopp or José Mourinho.
Conclusion
Despite the concerns stated above, I personally feel Erik ten Hag is by far the best candidate for the job. Pep Guardiola has even said that, if he was 100% sure ten Hag could translate his success to the Premier League, he would call Manchester United and tell them: “Guys, you have to take him.” Continuing to say he also thinks ten Hag could succeed him as manager at Manchester City.
He is definitely the most exciting coach available right now, who also happens to tick a lot of boxes for what United should be looking for in a manager — experience of winning; plays attractive and attacking football; invests a lot of time in youth and player development; and committed to long-term projects with a proven track record of rebuilding a successful team.
His relentless desire to win, again and again, is obvious. In this interview on DutchSoccerSite, Ten Hag explained:
“Good ain’t good enough. We need to get better. Push boundaries. In July, we start at level zero again. Trophies are all in the cabinet and we need to start again.”
This mentality is very Ferguson-esque. In Video 1, he repeats the same message:
“My motto is: good isn’t good enough. We have to do better.”
Erik ten Hag is going to get his richly deserved chance at a top European club sooner rather than later, and Manchester United would be foolish not to capitalise on this golden opportunity.
Thank you for reading!
I’ll leave you with a compilation of all 106 goals under Erik Ten Hag in 2021:
