Alibaba’s cave
How Yahoo’s worth is not in Yahoo
It’s not that I like bitching about tech juggernauts (well, I do, but I try to have constructive thoughts too once in a while), but I was reading the latest news about Alibaba possibly investing in Snapchat — and thus pushing its valuation up to 10 billion… Good for them… — when it got me thinking about Yahoo for the first time in a while.
2 reasons for that:
- First time in a while, because Yahoo hasn’t done much in terms of new features or products in quite a while. Or I haven’t been paying attention, which is possible, since I don’t keep track of what Yahoo is doing the same way than, say, Google. Random example.
- Alibaba made me think about Yahoo because, quite simply, if it wasn’t for Alibaba, Yahoo would already be gone, and/or bought up for a few hundred million bucks by Murdoch. Again, random example.
Eversince Marissa Mayer took over as CEO of Yahoo — 2 years now… times flies… —, the company’s market cap has essentially gone up. And many people have praised her efforts to re-establish the company as a leading tech player. But, seriously, what’s left of Yahoo today?
Its historical business model — a web search portal — is ancient history and its current key products — essentially, residual email subscribers and the news portal — are neither in perfect shape, nor truly killing features in 2014 — Gmail has been doing mail better for years, and news are… well… on Facebook now. Or Twitter. Basically, anywhere with a feed.
So, what’s left at Yahoo that keeps its market cap going up? Well… its assets, and most notably its 24% stake in Alibaba. Yes, with Alibaba’s valuations going ever higher and its IPO looming in the (now) very near future, market analysts — and investors — have consistently bet on Yahoo for its Alibaba stake. Ironically, Yahoo’s slew of acquisitions of the past few years was actually financed by Mayer’s early decision to sell off half of they shares… in Alibaba.
So, what will happen to Yahoo now? Will it keep surviving thanks to Alibaba? Will Alibaba or some other bigger player acquire it? (You have to admit it would be pretty ironic, but actually plausible, if Alibaba eventually bought back Yahoo…). I don’t know, but I’m fairly sure Mayer can’t save a ship that’s only holding on thanks to a raft that’s grown bigger than the ship ever was…