Probability Statement and Statistical Analysis With Monte Carlo Method

Gibson Berry
10 min readJun 2, 2023

Based on the Monte Carlo simulation results, we can make the following fair and comparable statements:

  1. The probability of hitting any one of the fifty foot wide points in Set B (Olympus) within the 10-mile study area is approximately 17.43% (1,743 iterations out of 10,000).
  2. The probability of hitting all three points in Set B within the 10-mile study area is approximately 0.01743% (1,743 iterations out of 10,000 repeated three times).
  3. To put it in the context of coin tosses, it would be like flipping a fair coin 1,743 times and getting three consecutive heads.
  4. The Monte Carlo simulation method was used to estimate the probabilities by generating random points within the study area and checking if they hit any of the target points.
  5. The simulation was performed with a study area radius of 5 miles, and each target point had a radius of 50 feet (0.025 miles).
  6. The results indicate the likelihood of hitting the target points randomly within the specified study area.

Overall, these statements provide insights into the probabilities and demonstrate the method used to obtain the results through Monte Carlo simulation. Next we use the method to determine the nature of a 100 mile line of landmarks.

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