Why Sam Harris is about to become (really, really, ridiculously) rich.
I’ve been working on identifying high growth investment opportunities and thought it might be useful to outline some of my reasoning/thought processes.
I’ve been listening to the Waking Up (edit : now Making Sense)podcast for a few years, as well as following the meditation market. Seeing the two collide has been an exciting process to watch. A more proactive version of myself intended to corral some of these thoughts in a digestible manner and publish this just before the course launched a couple months ago, but here we are.
PART 1. 🧘🏽√🧠 Mental FITNESS is a massive longterm trend. It is not a fad because it addresses the root cause of many modern epidemics.
PART 2. 💰FINANCES: Headspace, Calm, and others created a massive market for meditation instruction.
PART 3. 👨🏻🏫🧠 5 Reasons why Sam is uniquely qualified to make the Waking Up course “Meditation 201” for millions of people.
PART 4. 👀 What to watch now.
PART 1- WHY MEDITATION IS “A THING”
Unless you live under a rock, you’re probably sick of hearing and seeing the word “mindfulness”.
Don’t mistake this trend for a fad.
It’s beyond the scope of this post to attempt to prove the point conclusively, but my assessment is that meditation is the most effective (non - pharmacological) method of addressing the ROOT cause of many of the most devastating epidemics plaguing western society.
I’m talking about the opioid epidemic. Suicide. Mass shootings. And Obesity, heart disease, Cancer. I’m not claiming that downloading Headspace will cure any one individual of a terminal cancer that they already have. My thesis is if you dig down to the bottom of these “intractable” problems, you will often find one or both of these two things:
“Stress”- (in the form of elevated cortisol levels caused by amygdala hijacking)
“Despair” — (In the form of lack of meaningful connection and purpose.)
I believe Meditation mitigates these root factors subtly, but effectively and directly.
It does this on an individual and societal scale, but in a rather subtle way. (Forgive a few imperfect analogies: It doesn’t “destroy” them the way radiation kills a tumor, the effects compound (mostly unnoticed) over time much more like the way your body is replaced every 7 years with new cells. Or something like how water erodes the Grand Canyon.)
“Hence, in serious way that is almost comical, the key active ingredient in the formula for world peace may be something as simple as meditation. It’s such a simple solution to such an intractable problem, it is almost absurd…
Except it may actually work.”
— Chade-Meng Tan, Search Inside Yourself
It’s easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than a skeptical high-performing westerner to connect these dots in a straight line.
If this sounds crazy, and you can’t trust my assessment that there’s a mountain of scientific evidence piling up on an exponential curve that makes this case (better than I ever will), don’t worry…
Let’s skip right to the firehoses of cash: the business of mindfulness training.
PART 2- MEDITATION IS A SERIOUS BUSINESS
You’ll be hard pressed to find a more efficient business than Calm.com
Jason Calacanis outlines his rationale for investing in Calm as his first syndicate deal here, (and also includes a classic conversation between the two from years ago.)
Headspace has a similar story and is hosted by Andy Peddicombe. The approach of headspace is playful and prescriptive, with “packs” for specific purposes. 10% Happier is billed as the entry point for “fidgety skeptics” with Dan Harris of ABC news, and there are a spattering of others including Oak- produced by Kevin Rose.
You can Google TechCrunch articles on Headspace, Calm etc. to nerd out on the numbers, but the moral of the story is this:
The users and revenue numbers are in the tens of millions and rapidly growing, and they are all primarily focussed on the mass intro to meditation market.
They are also insanely efficient: There are currently only 66 Calm employees on Linkedin. How many groups of people that small are approaching $2 Million in revenue per employee?
These apps have:
- Proven the market: The users, growth and cash flow are eye-watering.
- Primed consumers: They introduce people to meditation, and build the habit of the practice, but also established the slice of the budget for a ~$15 monthly subscription.
Headspace, Calm, et. al are like Meditation 101. Where will users go once they are proficient at the basics?
Three options:
- STAY AND WAIT: Wait for more advanced content/features from wherever they started.
- SELF GUIDED: Insight Timer. 5.5M users and growing +10K / day, Insight is the most popular self-guided meditation timer. They also have guided meditations as well, but this seems to be the go-to spot for people who have the hang of it but are using a tool to keep their own practice steady, and track metrics.
3. VERTICAL NICHES:
The Waking up Course is likely to capture the lion’s share of this market for the foreseeable future.
Here’s why:
PART 3— WAKING UP = “MEDITATION 201"
Sam is doing what he loves… and he’s uniquely qualified to do it.
I don’t consider myself the best at any one thing, but you don’t have to be the best at anything to be almost uniquely qualified for something.— ~3 Min into Introducing the Waking up Course.
1. MEDITATION: Relatable Expertise
It doesn’t matter how VALUABLE the insights of the man in the cave may be… the path to achieving them is not RELATABLE.
When people start using meditation apps, many claim they “don’t have the time” for 10–15 minutes a day. Almost nobody that has a smartphone is going to spend over a year of their life on a silent retreat.
Except for Sam Harris.
He hasn’t spent years in a cave, but he’s spent significant amounts of time studying with the people that have. He’s has done MULTIPLE extended (1–3+ month duration) meditation retreats with people widely considered to be master instructors. I’d bet this puts him in the top .01% of student practitioners globally.
If this were math, Sam might not be Issac Newton, but he took several courses with Richard Feynman, and he’s hanging his shingle out to teach people who love arithmetic how to do Algebra 1.
This level of first-hand experience and expertise is particularly useful because, beyond his self-acknowledged resemblance to Ben Stiller, Sam looks like a normal, boring, middle-aged American white guy.
Sam has the experience to “know what they know” enough to guide students along the path in the right direction, and “smartphone users” will listen along for the journey because he is more relatable.
2. NEUROSCIENCE-
Completing a neuroscience PHD is an indicator of grit, but I would argue that the actual credential and implied expertise is the least essential ingredient in Sam’s Secret Sauce for effective practical instruction.
While it is helpful at times to hear a neuro-anatomical rationalization of a concept (such as different loci of consciousness), in terms of actual insights and experience, this type of learning is likely extra-curricular.
However, the PHD in Neuroscience certainly helps his branding. The authority helps consumers feel confident, and it facilitates virtue signaling for would-be-skeptics to be able to recommend a purveyor of “spirituality”.
3. RELIGION/PHILOSOPHY
The subtitle of the Waking Up book is “Spirituality without Religion”.
Sam came to public prominence as a critic of religion and made a career of debating proponents of the world’s religions. He knows more about most religious doctrines, texts, and histories than billions of adherents.
No matter what matters of “spirituality” he treads into via his philosophy and contemplative practices, it is difficult for scientists or secularists to discount the points he makes… he knows his stuff, he’s rigorous, and most of all… he’s one of them.
4. ELOQUENCE
An outlier vocabulary can come across as pretentious in the context of political, social, and philosophical discussions of the sort that has been Sam’s stock and trade for years. This can put distance between speakers, or audiences holding opposing viewpoints in a debate etc.
However, when there is a teacher/student relationship established, and incentives are aligned, an expansive vocabulary becomes just a massive tool belt for difficult jobs. They become useful resources when describing “ineffable” conscious experiences like “the illusion of the self” and phenomena and insights from psychedelic states that many listeners have not had.
Eloquence can help bridge the relatability gap between the “monk in the cave” and the “hipster in the subway”.
Hearing something described in a variety of ways over multiple lessons/attempts can help trigger insights and understanding that would be less likely to be conveyed by someone when a more generic vocabulary.
5. NETWORK + FOLLOWING
Calm.com was seeded with the users of donothingfor2minutes.com
Sam is not a “scrappy” founder. Coming into launch, he has:
- A large social following, (~1.14M Twitter followers),
- A completely independent subscription-based media platform around his personal brand, (~500k+ downloads per episode) He is an established author with a significant body of work and the ability to secure book deals, speaking fees etc. His podcast platform not only pays his bills, it also serves as a promotional platform for the Waking Up Course. It’s a virtuous feedback loop that almost no outside force can control. He’s not at the mercy of YouTube or Facebook Algorithms to communicate with his audience. He’s established a direct support model for his media business, so as long as he continues to provide content that people value, he answers to no middle man.
- AND an incredible network… Elon Musk is an acquaintance of his, and he’s in a cohort of “new media” titans including Joe Rogan, Dave Rubin, Ben Shapiro, and Jocko Willink. Jason Calacanis sings his praises and has had him on his show. This is in addition to having personal friendships with expert meditation teachers such as Joseph Goldstein.
- …Including Tim Ferriss. Worth noting specifically is a mutually respected relationship with Tim Ferriss. Tim hosts one of the most popular podcasts on the internet, which is listened to actively by early adopters in all fields and sectors of life. Appearances and advertisement on the show has a “Tim Ferriss effect” on products and exposure. Tim often refers to Sam and his work, as he has noticed the one common denominator among all the high-performing guests he has is the practice of meditation.
Let’s connect the dots in a straight line…
One of the most popular shows on the internet interviews high performers.
- The purpose is to distill their tools, tactics and habits.
- The most common denominator is that 80%+ have a meditation practice.
- The host of this show has a Oprah like effect on consumer choices.
- When referencing meditation in any episode, he often recommends Headspace, Calm and Sam Harris/ Waking up.
- Sam has appeared on Tim’s show at least twice, most recently at Tim’s invitation-specifically to promote the Waking Up Course and App.
Once more: The most common habit of the high-performers on Tim’s podcast is meditation, and when he recommends tools to build that habit, he and some of his guests point to Sam Harris as the authority.
THE BAD NEWS
From an investment perspective… The ship has likely sailed. Sam has mentioned he has taken on outside investors, and given his network, I’m sure he has no shortage of introductions and willing partners.
But just in case, a note to Sam: if you are ever raising another round, I would encourage you to utilize an equity crowdfunding platform like SeedInvest, to include supporters of your work. I think this type of model could be a great addition to the new type of business model you are pioneering.
IT’S EARLY DAYS….
Physical fitness as a business began after World War II.
A lot of good was done- and a lot of money was made- in the fitness industry intervening 7 decades. Nike wasn’t even founded until 1964. Cross Fit was founded in 2000. Peloton was founded in 2012.
Order of operations matters.
I believe that as more and more data is compiled, and more Westerners adopt and the practice of meditation and become skilled in mindfulness, more and more people will realize the primacy of the mind.
It will become self-evident to prioritize mental health. If you do this, then you make better decisions throughout the rest of your life, including the physical and social realm.
I view this shift in the order of operations as all but inevitable in a 60–100 year (~2–3 generations) time frame.
Headspace, Calm, (and even Waking Up) are just the first movers in mental health as a business.
PART 4: What to pay attention to now:
- Digital Mindfulness Verticals- Many other apps and instructors will appear in this space. Most will be watered down copy-cats. A few will break out with a novel innovation.
- VR/AR trainers: Headspace uses some visual cues on a phone. More immersive experiences will engage users and introduce the practice as a game.
- Biometrics: apps, wearables, embeds, sensors etc. will all begin to quantify these phenomena and then this data will begin to inform and customize guided meditations. What bio-feedback signatures indicate I’ve shifted into a theta pattern? What is the most efficient way to set me in that state? Can we show that I am lowering my cortisol levels over time? This type of data will customize the experience and increase retention.
- Float Therapy- Floating is known as “Meditation on Steroids”. Within ~ 5 1 hour sessions, many users experience something they anecdotally describe as “profound”, and often then form a traditional “sitting” meditation practice. I believe this is perhaps the best “gateway drug” towards meditation.
- Psychedelic Therapy — When I said “non-pharmacological” earlier in this post, I didn’t mean that Xanax is a more effective solution. I meant Therapeutic Psychedelics likely are (for specific populations, in controlled settings, in accordance with the law!!!). Specifically, psilocybin and MDMA. This is not my area of expertise and I have no direct experience here… but there is a ton of interesting research coming out of this field and some of these compounds are being fast-tracked as potential breakthrough treatments by the FDA, with re-scheduling becoming a more likely scenario… follow along here.
All of the above and more will be mixed and matched as time progresses, and many insanely beneficial (and profitable) companies will emerge from this soup of factors.
