You may be right. I think the timeline is aggressive but I can’t say I would be completely surprised if you are correct.
That said, why fight oil or pipelines at all if you’re confident in your prediction? Let Big Oil build it’s pipelines or whatever, allow people to keep jobs as long as possible while we make transition to alternative energy sources and stop demonizing the industry which only makes you an enemy among those who depend on it.
100 years ago, oil saved the whales and lessened the need for coal and wood for fuel. Oil has increased human health and longevity.
It was a net benefit for the environment and our society at the time which has almost entirely been built on the energy potential of oil. Oil enabled the amazing technological progress we’ve witnessed over past 100 years.
So, if it’s not going to make a difference per your predictions, why fight it at all? Do you really believe 8–15 years of more oil is going to make anything but the slightest difference to planet earth or GHCs over the next 100 years?
Yes, I live in oil producing region and I realized somewhere around 2008–10 that oil was a dying industry and I am OK with that in the long run. What I can’t accept is the demonization and obstruction from everyone who continue to use it everyday as if they are somehow untouched or untainted by oil. We produce because everyone currently consumes so let our industry fade away gracefully and everyone will win and be happier.
And if Trans Canada has to sell a million tons of steel in 2025 or 2030 so be it.