Setting the tone
Sunday afternoon, the Netherlands will take the field while Oranje fans flood the stadium, loud in color and brass; a proud pride of lions, in all their imaginable forms, will hope to cheer their national team from European champions to World Cup champions. Meanwhile, a sonorous sea of red, white, and blue will march through the streets of Lyon waving flags and chanting “equal pay,” as cardboard cutouts of Megan Rapinoe’s head, and now signature silver-pink hair, drift down the crowd towards the Stade de Lyon. The United States will step onto the field with the confidence of defending World Cup champions. And only a cacophony of competing sounds will channel the energy of this historic match before the high-pitch hiss of the referee’s whistle is heard: announcing the start of the final.
Context
European Champions take on reigning World Cup winners in the 2019 Women’s World Cup final this Sunday. Who will emerge victorious? Statistics, analytics, and psychology suggest the United States Women’s soccer team.
1. The US won every game in the 2015 World Cup, and they have won all of their games in this World Cup, having played through the toughest side of the bracket in the tournament.
2. The United States women’s team came into the World Cup as tournament favorites; now they enter the final with -275 betting line. While the odds for a Netherlands win are at +765, i.e., you risk $100 to make $765 if you bet for the Netherlands.
3. To use a phrase coined by Liverpool coach Jürgen Klopp, they are mentality monsters; players and coach alike acknowledge confidence as a sentiment they associate with and are proud of. At times, their confidence has been labeled as arrogance. US player, Christian Press, responded to these criticisms by stating, “We’re respectful of our opponents, and the way that we respect them is by preparing for each game as if the opponent that we’re going to play is the best in the world.”
But in every football match, there is room for a change of fortune. The Netherlands never doubted its ability to make it to the finals; but to take home the trophy, they will need to upset the odds. The underdog story does not always play out, it usually doesn’t, but when it does, it’s sensational. One only needs to look back to the 2015–16 season when Leicester City overcame 5,000 to 1 odds, becoming the sixth team to win the Premier League title since its inception in 1992. Or one of the most-talked-about upset in American sports history, the 1980 Winter Olympics where the US hockey team reigned victorious against the Soviet Union. If the Netherlands is to raise the trophy on Sunday, they will need a last-minute change of fortune. Do you believe in miracles?
Observations
While both teams are strong across the field, the movement down the middle will come to define the game on Sunday, and we expect there to be several challenging matchups along the spine of the pitch — from goalie to goalie.
Alyssa Naeher — United States goalie Alyssa Naeher has upheld the precedent set by her predecessor, Hope Solo, in this tournament. Her incredible dive and fingertip save in the England semi-final game, certainly brought to the mind of anyone watching, that she is a worthy replacement for legendary goalie Hope Solo. But Naeher’s cradling of a ball — which moments earlier was shot by England captain Steph Houghton in an 84th-minute penalty — reassured fans that the confidence they place in the USWNT goalkeeping position, as a stronghold on the field, is a valid sentiment.
Rebecca Sauerbrunn vs. Vivianne Miedema — US center defender Sauerbrunn and the Netherlands forward Miedema are coming off of tough semi-final games: Sauerbrunn gave up a penalty that almost led to England tying the US in the 84th minute, while Miedema had one of her quieter games all tournament, narrowly missing an almost header goal against Sweden.
Miedema has been indispensable for the Netherlands and will need to have her best game yet, pressuring the US defense with the intensity that won them the European title. Sauerbrunn will need to put last game behind her and mark Miedema confidently — anticipating the Netherlands taking any opportunity to get the ball to this top-scoring superstar.
Julie Ertz vs. Daniëlle van de Donk — US midfielder Julie Ertz has had outstanding defensive performances all tournament and will face worthy opponent, Daniëlle van de Donk, in the final game. The Netherlands center midfielder Daniëlle van de Donk is a versatile player, known for her ability to move the ball into the final-third with dynamic runs and plays. Expect this to be a battle all game long in the middle of the field.
Dominique Bloodworth vs. Alex Morgan — The Netherlands center defender Bloodworth will hope to control the tempo and hold a solid defensive line if the Netherland’s is to prevent US top scorer Alex Morgan from netting a ball and earning herself the golden boot.
Megan Rapinoe & Lieke Martens — If these two players are healthy enough to play in tomorrow’s game, they will undoubtedly make the difference. Rapinoe and Martens provide energy, creativity, confidence, and an overall X-factor to their teams. Rapinoe has been the dead-ball specialist for the United States, scoring three penalties in two games, and adds undeniable swagger to her team. Martens, FIFA women’s player of the year in 2017, is an extremely intelligent forward who we have seen create opportunities where there look to be none.
Sari van Veenendaal — Veenendaal takes the goal as the Netherlands captain. Her good-hands paired with her daringness to challenge balls outside of the goal-mouth has made her a stand-out goalie in this tournament. The Netherlands game against Japan and their semi-final game against Sweden showcased her ability to make critical saves that earned them a place in the final match. But in this final match, Veenendaal is coming up against a US side that has scored twenty-three goals this World Cup (thirteen against Thailand), netted by six different players, two of whom are in contention for the golden boot and who will be eager to take any opportunity to claim it.
Whether you have been watching the women’s World Cup since 1991, this is your first tournament, or you are the lucky f*cker who just happened to channel-surf your way into watching history, the quality of play in this tournament has been unparalleled to any other. We can only hope that tomorrow’s game is representative of the athleticism, creativity, technique, and respect that has surprised and brought fans together across the world.
