Making Sense of Complexity: A Guide to Using the Cynefin Framework for Effective Program Management
Have you ever wondered why your management approaches are not working as well as you expected? In today’s complex and ever-changing world, there is no one cookie-cutter solution approach to various situations leaders face. Leaders must recognize that each situation is unique and requires a thoughtful and tailored approach.
Situational awareness is the foundation of effective decision-making. — General Ann E. Dunwoody
Correctly sensing a situation is vital in charting the correct response. Cynefin is a framework for understanding complex situations.
The Cynefin framework, developed by Dave Snowden and Cynthia Kurtz, is a registered trademark of Cognitive Edge, a management consulting firm that specializes in complexity science and sense-making.
Frameworks are accelerators.
An introduction to Cynefin Framework
The Cynefin framework is a decision-making model that provides guidance for leaders to understand the different levels of complex situations they face and how to manage them.
Cynefin framework divides the world into two sides one side is Predictable, where things repeat, and cause and effect are observable, whereas on the other side, in the Unpredictable world, a straightforward cause and effect does not exist
Some examples
Predictable — Spending x development hours to build a simple internal tool for your business.
Unpredictable — Prioritizing which region to launch your product next
Cynefin framework further divides situations into five domains based on complexity.
1-Clear
In this domain, the cause-and-effect relationship is clear and easily understood. Best practices and standard operating procedures can be used to manage problems in this domain.
2-Complicated
The relationship between cause and effect is less evident in this domain than in the simple domain. Expertise and analysis are needed to identify the best course of action.
3-Complex
In this domain, the relationship between cause and effect is not clear, and there are multiple factors and interactions at play. The best approach is to probe the situation, sense the patterns, and respond iteratively and adaptively.
4-Chaotic
In this domain, the situation is unpredictable, and the organization must act quickly to restore order.
5-Confusion
In this domain, there is confusion regarding which of the other domains applies. The primary goal is to determine the right domain.
Leveraging Cynefin framework in different aspects of Program Management
Below is the summary of my thought exercise on how the Cynefin framework can be leveraged in various aspects of program management like Planning, Resourcing, Risk Management, and Communication
Clear (Known — Knowns)
There is a clear relationship between cause and effect in the clear domain. Some examples
- Adopting a new version of a software library by all teams
- Translation of a software into a new language
In the above situations, it is very clear what needs to be done to achieve the outcome. Given this is something repeating and will occur again, best practices and templates can be created to enable execution.
Planning — Categorize the different aspects of the work and create an execution plan with all the defined work. Templates, Checklists, and SOPs can be leveraged.
Resourcing — In the clear domain, we don’t need experts, and given the repeatability nature, the projects can be staffed by junior individuals or even outsourced.
Risk Management — All projects have risks, but the risk is minimal. The risks are primarily related to not having enough capacity to do the project.
Communication — Communication is going to be along the lines of project progress. The program manager needs good monitoring to measure planned vs. actuals and escalate when actuals deviate from planned.
Complicated (Known — Unknowns)
In the complicated domain, there is a relationship between cause and effect but not very obvious. There can be multiple good options, and will need Subject Matter Experts(SMEs) to analyze the situation before action can be taken.
Some examples
- The obvious one will be launching a rocket
- Moving from one Cloud provider to another
- Increasing your application performance by x %
In the complicated domain, the outcome is clear, but not what needs to be done is spelled out. Experts need to analyze the situation and come up with recommendations on the next step. Program managers are very familiar with this domain; most programs fall in this domain.
Planning — When the situation is complicated, then there is some level of analysis by SMEs is required before a particular option can be chosen. There are multiple ways to plan a complicated initiative.
One option is to split the project into two major phases; the first phase will be a Discovery phase, where SMEs analyze the situation, and a particular solution approach is decided. The second phase will be the implementation of the chosen approach.
Another option is to do a proof of concept or prototype before embarking on the full implementation.
Another option is to do a pilot with a subset of the target and prove it out before scaling the solution.
In all of the above cases, the goal is to leverage experts to thoroughly analyze the situation before committing to a full-fledged solution.
Resourcing — Unlike the clear domain, a complicated domain requires expertise, and Program Managers need to ensure they have the right level of expertise in their team.
Risk Management — Given the Unknowns, there is a high level of risk. Issues can arise from insufficient expertise to analyze the situation correctly, or the analysis might take longer than initially planned.
Communication — There will be a certain level of anxiety among stakeholders regarding how the Unknown will be addressed. Program Managers need to ensure that interim milestones are set to evaluate progress and see when there can be clarity on the next steps.
Complex (Unknown — Unknowns)
In the complex domain, we are moving to an unpredictable world. The complex domain is characterized by a high degree of complexity, uncertainty, and unpredictability, and it requires a more adaptive, flexible approach to problem-solving.
Some examples
- Addressing a social problem like homelessness in cities
- Deciding on a price for a product
- What product/feature to build in a rapidly evolving industry
- Decrease Churn
The goal of the Complex domain is to experiment to determine the problem that needs to be addressed. Once the problem is well understood, then the situation can be moved to the Complicated domain to analyze and respond to the problem.
If we take the example of “Decrease Churn,” the reasons for customer churn can be multifaceted, like product quality, pricing, features, or other factors. Experimentation is required to uncover the problem that needs to be addressed.
Planning — In a complex situation, the best approach will be to split the programs into phases first to identify the problem that needs to be resolved and then a following phase to address the identified problem.
For example, in Product development, product management does a lot of customer discovery and experimentation before deciding on what to build.
Resourcing — The best approach is to start small with a cross-functional set of resources to uncover the cause-and-effect relationship
Risk Management — Unknowns create risks, and the program manager will need to be on top of these to bring clarity to these unknowns
Communication — Given the fluid nature of this domain, expect a lot of face-to-face communication with the stakeholders
Chaotic
In the chaotic domain, the situation is not under control, and there is a need for immediate action to bring order. The key challenge is to take rapid and decisive action to restore stability and prevent the situation from escalating.
Some examples
- Natural disasters like an earthquake
- Unforeseen security incidents
- A major recall or a product issue
In the chaotic domain, the organization is surprised, and there is chaos. Bringing order is the first step; there is no time for experimentation or analysis. Once there is order, then the situation can be moved to other domains.
Planning — In most cases, there will not be any time for planning. War rooms like response might be needed to contain the situation.
Resourcing — This is an all-hands-on-deck kind of situation; whoever is needed is pulled in to address the issue.
Risk Management — The emphasis moves from Risk Management to Issue Management. The program manager still needs to look for other risks that can further escalate the situation.
Communication — Typically, war rooms are established with the round the clock updates
Frameworks are accelerators, and the Cynefin framework aids leaders in rightly sensing the situation so an appropriate response can be provided.
Situational awareness is the foundation of effective decision-making. — General Ann E. Dunwoody
Some additional reading
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynefin_framework
- https://untools.co/cynefin-framework
- https://thecynefin.co/about-us/about-cynefin-framework/
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