The Typical Soccer Pyramid Won’t Work for USL
It looks like we’re getting closer to having promotion/relegation here in US Soccer. The USL will be voting on the adoption of a pyramid system and the owner’s meeting in August. Like me, I’m sure other soccer fans are delighted about this possibility. However, there is a lot that needs to be considered before everyone submits their vote.
Saudi Influence
The Saudi Public Investment Fund recently bought the US PGA through their LIV Golf league. The fact that the Saudis actually bought a sports league was shocking around the sports world. Given their recent investment in soccer, there have been a lot of concerns raised.
The Premier League has seen a number of players go to the Saudi Pro League because they are being offered life-changing money. This is also why a number of golfers joined the LIV Golf tour. There were discussions about whether the Saudis could buy one of the top European soccer leagues. That’s pretty much out of the question as UEFA has rules about owners having multiple teams in UEFA competitions.
When asked about the Saudi Pro League’s growing influence threatening the MLS’s potential expansion into growing markets, MLS Commissioner Don Garber stated “You know, it’s not just about Europe, right? It’s about here. So I’m not threatened by that at all.”
Garber also said, “The league has significance, it’s got 30 teams, and it’s got a valuation of $15bn. Think about that, $15 billion, that’s the collective value of all of our teams. When I came in it was $250 million. So I don’t think that there’s any looking back. It now is ‘What’s the future going to look like?’”
Now, if you think about it, the MLS is more like the PGA than NFL in structure. David Tepper paid $325 million for the Charlotte FC franchise. Just to give you some context, the Washington Commanders sold for $6 billion. Michael Jordan sold a majority stake in the Charlotte Hornets for $3 billion. Clearlake bought Chelsea for $4.2 billion.
There are currently 29 teams in MLS with another recently being awarded to San Diego. Garber just set the valuation of the league at $15 billion. If the PIF offered to buy the MLS for $30–60 billion, do you think they would sell, with each owner/owner group getting $2–3 billion? The PIF is working with $600 billion.
The US is the biggest sports market in the world and soccer is rapidly growing here. 4 of the top 10 are located here, and US leagues make up 3 of top 4 with the Indian Premier League (cricket) coming in 2nd
The Saudis couldn’t buy another top 10 soccer league because they’d have to deal with each team individually. That’s not the case with the MLS because the MLS owns all the teams and all the players. Which means that the Saudis would have Messi in one of their leagues. And there’s an even bigger caveat. The MLS is a closed league. There is no promotion/relegation.
Now, we’ve seen owners in other US leagues move teams when they don’t get their way. The cities they move to sell their souls in order to please them. One thing we know, US sports team owners are ultimately concerned about ROI. Tepper would be able to 10x his investment if his payout was $3 billion; he’s on the low end. David Beckham paid $25 million for Inter Miami in his deal with joining MLS. A $3 billion payout would be quite the come up.
The ramifications from this to US Soccer would be huge. This would mean that a foreign country would literally control the growth of soccer here in the US. Personally, I feel if the Saudis figure out they could buy MLS, it’s as good as sold.
Given the amount of money the Saudis are willing to spend, there is no way the USL could compete as they exist today. The MLS may not be worried about the Saudis, but the USL should be.
Wrexham
Another consideration is the hit documentary, Welcome to Wrexham. Wrexham mania has taken over the world. I recently heard that because of the success of the show and of Wrexham in general, the club had revenue of close to $20 million in the 2022–23 season.
Wrexham was just promoted to the 4th tier of English soccer. You’d have to go up to the Championship (2nd tier) to find teams that had as much revenue as them. Rob McElhenny and Ryan Reynolds’ decision to buy a Welsh football club has captured the attention of the soccer world.
Now, the only reason everyone loves their story is because Rob & Ryan wanted to get Wrexham promoted back to the EFL, out of the non-league. You know we love a great underdog story here in the US. But nothing like that can happen here because we don’t have pro/rel.
Local soccer fans would be more likely to know who Paul Mullin is than their local team’s #1 striker. Which means Wrexham is better known than the local soccer club. The success of Wrexham is going to have a lot more people pushing to get pro/rel implemented here.
Size of the United States
A third consideration is the size of the United States. The US has the most spread out league in the world. In the premier league, one of the longest distances traveled is AFC Bournemouth to Newcastle United. This takes about 6.5 hours by bus.
In contrast, in MLS, Vancouver to Miami is about a 6 hour non-stop flight.
And this is across three time zones. Which means if you leave Vancouver at 12PM PST, you arrive at 9PM EST. That’s nine hours. Travel is one of the biggest expenses and the biggest time sink.
This has been an issue in all US sports leagues. It’s why the NFL, MLB and NBA arranged their divisions to cut down on travel distances and expenses. However, because these are all national leagues, there is still plenty of cross nation travel.
The typical setup I’ve seen for a US soccer pyramid is your typical four tiered national divisions. Protagonist Soccer actually floated the idea of a national league in Tier 1 and East/West regions for tiers 2–4. But I don’t even think this would work.
Based on that setup, it is theoretically possible for all the Tier 1 teams to end up being entirely on the West Coast. TV viewership is a major revenue source for sports. If you look at the ratings, games on the West coast have lower viewership.
Close to 80% of the US population is located in the Eastern part, the Eastern and Central time zones. That’s close to 264 million people, with 66 million living in the Western US, or West and Mountain time zones.
I know I rarely watch West coast games because they end so late. My cousin in California told me they usually go out after a Monday night football game because it’s still early there. So the odds of eastern US soccer fans watching a western only Tier one league are very low.
The potential influence of the Saudis, competition with MLS and success of Welcome to Wrexham all play a part with the USL voting for implementing promotion/relegation. But how could they set it all up?
US Soccer Pyramid
Americans like to do things differently, for example playoffs to determine our league champion. I think something radical is needed here also. My proposal?
Create two separate league pyramids. A western league pyramid and an eastern league pyramid. They would not play each other in the regular season at all. Very similar to how the MLB was with the American and National leagues.
Also, I would have 18 teams in each top tier, for a total of 36 teams across the top tier. Each tier below would also have 18 teams. So, let’s take the Eastern league and the Western league would mirror it in structure.
The league champion is whoever finishes first in the league table. But it would be nice to play the Western league champion to determine a US League Cup winner. So East 1 plays East 2 in home/away matches. Winner plays the West winner in home/away matches. 17th and 18th place teams are automatically relegated. Tier 2 1st and 2nd place teams are automatically promoted. Tier 1 16th place team enters a knockout with Tier 2 3rd, 4th, and 5th place teams. There could be a random draw followed by a home/away first round ending with a knockout championship home/away.
Tier 1
- 1st & 2nd — US League Cup
- 16th — promotion playoffs with Tier 2 3rd-5th place teams
- 17th & 18th relegated
Tier 2
- 1st & 2nd — promoted
- 3rd-5th — promotion playoffs
- 15th-18th — relegated
Tiers 3 and 4 would also be divided into North and South to decrease the region sizes.
Tier 3 and 4 are divided into North and south, each with 18 teams
Tier 3 North/South
- 1st place — promoted
- 2nd-5th — promotion playoffs
- 16th — promotion playoffs with Tier 4 3rd-5th teams
- 17th and 18th relegated
Tier 4 North/South
- 1st & 2nd — promoted
- 3rd-5th — promotion playoffs
- 15th-18th — relegated
That would give us 108 teams in the Eastern League, 216 across both leagues.
Tier 5 and below would be non-league and would also be split again into east and west. 16 teams per league on down from Tier 5 and below.
Dividing the leagues this way would help cut travel costs and build local rivalries. You can kind of relate it to high school football where schools have their local rivalries. Shortened travel times will also allow fans to easily attend away games, which would help with match day revenue.
Having two pyramids opens the door to increased media revenue. Instead of bidding for the rights of a national league, there would be options for a major broadcaster for each pyramid. Regional broadcasters could also enter the picture as they could niche it down to their footprint.
In English soccer, their pyramid starts to become regionalized when you enter the non-league part of the pyramid. Here in the US, the National Premier Soccer League is regionalized and has close to 100 teams in their league. Given the number of pro and semi-pro teams we already have in the US, I think this proposed dual pyramid structure could easily be filled out.
Benefits of Dual Pyramid
Moving to a dual pyramid system could have multiple benefits, the first being, changing the USSF rules for league and team structures. Here are some of the requirements for forming a league and team under the USSF:
Personally, I think this should be changed to something similar to the EFL. Basically, you get your home and away kits, find a place to play, find players, decide on the level you’re playing at, form a club committee, designate your team location, apply to a league, and pay the nominal associated fees. The initial fees would be less than $5000. That gets you into Tier 9, 10 or 11 of English football.
The following is some of the changes I think are needed:
- Primary owner worth should only come into play when an owner/owner group is purchasing a team in one of the top 4 tiers
- Requirements for a national league across all 4 time zones should go away
- The market population size requirement should go away
- There should be a way for member-owned teams to be formed
- New team formation should be simple and inexpensive as in the English FA
- There should be stadium minimum requirements for each tier, similar to English FA
- Instead of salary caps, some form of financial fair play should be implemented. This could be waived for the first 2–3 years of new team ownership
Investment
Changing the requirements for starting a team in this new dual pyramid system would be a big boost to investment. The MLS is very close to their size ceiling. Both the NFL and NHL have 32 teams. Top soccer leagues around the world have 12–20 teams in their top tier.
I’m not sure what MLS’s plans are once they get to 32 teams. Given that it will cost a minimum of $500 million to join the MLS, investors have been looking elsewhere. Here are American owners that I found in European leagues:
Americans are going abroad because it’s cheaper to buy a foreign team and having the ability to be promoted offers an award for ambitious owners. With a dual pyramid system, owners could possibly have an ownership stake with one team in each pyramid.
Being able to be promoted to the top tier increases interest and possibilities. American investors would most likely prefer to invest in teams here, the largest sports market in the world, where soccer is the fastest growing sport.
There are over 1800 teams in the top 11 tiers of English soccer. This comes from a population of almost 60 million people. We have more than that in the Western US alone. By implementing a dual pyramid system, changing the team requirements, and enticing new investment, the US pyramid system could eventually grow to be of similar size. It could also grow to be the most popular league in the world.
Importance of Dual Pyramids
I want to emphasize that I keep saying a dual pyramid system. The United States is too large for one pyramid. Once again, theoretically, all the teams in the top tier could end up on the West Coast, which could effectively kill the league.
Having two pyramids also makes expansion easier. If 20 new teams join the Eastern pyramid, but 2 new teams join the Western pyramid in the same year, the pyramids aren’t affected by each other. Remember, 80% of the US population is on the Eastern side, so it should be expected that the Eastern pyramid would grow faster. The only thing that would matter is both pyramids having the same number of teams in the top 4 tiers, AKA, the League portion of the pyramids.
The dual pyramid system I’m proposing would require a major shift in the mindset for US sports team owners. In the EFL, there are teams that have spent their entire existence, in some cases over 100 years, in the 5th tier or lower. We have to be okay with every team in our pyramid not being worth $500 million.
We also need to remember that at the end of the day, a sports team is a business, and every business does not succeed. There are plenty of defunct teams in the EFL, but there are also a lot of Phoenix clubs. Allowing for this possibility will help soccer grow here and give us the opportunity to have our own Wrexham-like stories.
